four tonight w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

Los Angeles +1.04 over SAN FRANCISCO

This has to be one of the most disappointing seasons in Dodger history. They’ve had worse years than this in terms of wins but in terms of expectations and wins, you would have to look deep into the archives to find a more unsatisfactory season. They can at least get some satisfaction in making life difficult for the Giants, the team they hate more than any other. So, for the Dodgers, this season was over about three weeks ago and this is its last hurrah. Causing the Giants to miss the playoffs or at least being a big part of the cause would almost make the season worthwhile so expect the Dodgers to show up big time here. That’s not to say they’re going to win or even accomplish anything but Barry Zito favored over Clayton Kershaw in this situation is preposterous. Zito has won some games this season and he’s also had some decent pitching lines but if there ever was a fluke, Zito is it. His xERA over the last month (31 days) is 6.46. His groundball rate on the year of 36% is one of the lowest in the league and it’s been getting progressively worse all second half. That rate is down to 32% over the last two months. Also note that this is the sixth time he’ll face the Dodgers this year and while his ERA and BA against them is very good, pay little attention to that because Zito’s skills are poor and any success he’s had against anyone is the result of good fortune. He’s allowed four runs or more in five of his last seven starts and last week the Dodgers knocked him out in the fourth inning after he issued four walks, four hits and four runs. Ask anybody in the Dodgers organization if there are any "untouchables" on their team and there is one name that is certain to be at the top of the short list: Clayton Kershaw. In short, this is one impressive young man. Things aren't supposed to come this easily this early for pitchers in the Major Leagues, but thanks to an arsenal that includes a mid-90's fastball, slider, knee-buckling curveball and changeup, Kershaw is the straight goods. While Kershaw's ERA (2.99) has inched up ever-so-slightly vs. 2009, his xERA (3.73) suggests this season is the best one yet. That WHIP (1.23) loves the fact that Kershaw is walking one less batter per nine innings (3.8) than he did in 2009 and that is a beautiful thing. When all is said and done, Kershaw has one of the finest young arms in baseball with the fortitude to back it up. Again, Zito favored over Kershaw is not only preposterous but it’s an insult to Kershaw and you can be damn sure these players look at the betting line every day. Play: Los Angeles +1.04 (Risking 2 units).

COLORADO –1½ +1.36 over San Diego
You didn’t expect the Rockies to run the table, did you? The Pads came in here last night and broke Colorado’s 10-game streak but so what. San Diego has clawed its way to every win over the last month and they’re still just 13-18 over its last 31 games and now they have to rely on that stiff John Garland. Not only has Garland’s good luck caught up to him but he’s 0-2 vs the Rocks this year with a BAA of .341 and an ERA of 5.06. Overall, current Rockies hitters have gone 43-133 against Garland in their career for a BA of .323. Over his last three starts, all at Petco Park, Garland is 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA and that’s with a strand rate of 78%. Now he’ll face the hottest team in the league in a park that doesn’t lose sleep if you get whacked. Jason Hammel is 3-0 vs San Diego this season with a 3.81 ERA and a BAA of .245. At Coors this season, Hammel is 7-1 with an ERA of 3.67. Hammel has a strong profile right across the board that includes a groundball rate of 46% and a xERA of 3.85. Can Garland get lucky again? Probably not. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.36 (Risking 2 units).

Arizona +1.50 over CINCINNATI
Travis Wood has started 13 games for the Reds this season but remarkably, he’s only started two games at Great American Ballpark. In his first game at Great American way back on July 18, he was solid against the Rocks but nobody knew much about him then. In his second game there back on Aug 29 he lasted just five innings against the Cubbies and surrendered 10 hits and walked three but allowed just three earned runs because the Cubbies stranded a whole slew of runners. Wood has very good numbers that include a 3.33 ERA, a WHIP of 1.11 and a BAA of just .215. However, a fly-ball rate of 48% to go along with a xERA of 4.94 screams a warning and you can triple that at this park. Wood is not as good as his surface stats suggest and his ERA is very likely heading north in this, his second time through the league. Teams have now seen him, there’s much more film on him and the D-Backs saw him just about a month ago in Arizona. Daniel Hudson has been nothing short of sensational since joining the Snakes rotation. Hudson’s surface stats are also much better than his under the surface stats and chances are strong he won’t sustain the run he’s on due to a 45% fly-ball rate and a very high strand rate of 78%. Having said that, Hudson is very capable of striking out a bunch and that’s significant at this park. In reality, we have two pitchers that have had good fortune going up against one another but Hudson has pitched at more difficult parks and his GB% of 50% over his last two games is a very good sign. More notably, however, is that Hudson is not the one laying –1.60 and it’s not like the Reds are on fire either. Play: Arizona +1.50 (Risking units).

Toronto +1.02 over BALTIMORE
Jake Arrieta's 1.85 ERA in Triple-A this year was gaudy, but his skills didn't support it. Judging by his recent skill history and his work so far in the majors, his control and command problems only seem to be getting worse, and when you add in a fairly high fly ball rate, you get a pitcher with an xERA over 5.00 and a negative BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). Arietta has walked 47 batters this season and struck out the exact same amount in 94.1 IP. He has a high strand rate (78%) to go along with a WHIP of 1.58 and those stats do not lead to long term success. Also consider that Arietta is coming off a win over the Yanks and is in a letdown spot after that good start. Fact is, Arrieta offers up zero value as the chalk against a Jays team that is capable of scoring in bunches. Shawn Hill underwent Tommy John surgery in over a year ago and made his season debut last week against the Rangers. Due to an assortment of arm injuries, he never has been able to throw more than 100 IP in a season. But he still owns that 79 BPV from '07. He also can induce groundballs at a high rate when he's on his game. That first start is out of the way and while it wasn’t spectacular by any stretch, he only allowed three runs and eight hits in six frames and that had to feel pretty damn good. When the combination of Arrieta and the Orioles are favored it’s a big risk because neither are very good. Play: Toronto +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
 

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BOL with the card Sherwood and thx for all your writeups :toast:

who do you think will play in the WS this year??
 

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