Yesterday 2 2 0 +1.08 Units
Last 30 Days 36 33 1 +26.12 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 206 243 4 +29.60 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Toronto +1.06 over BALTIMORE
One of our favorite angles in baseball is backing a team with a promising September call-up making his first start and that’s precisely the case with Kyle Drabek. Drabek is expected to make three starts to end the season. He was acquired from the Phillies last December as part of the Roy Halladay deal. He's gotten better as the '10 season has progressed and he even threw a no-hitter this season. Drabek doesn't have a dominant strikeout rate, but he does a nice job of inducing weak contact. His 88-94 mph fastball that features late life and his plus curveball are both high-quality offerings that hitters don't hit hard. He's a fine athlete who repeats his delivery and has decent command despite his moderate walk rate. Drabek keeps the ball down and gets his fair share of groundballs. He underwent Tommy John surgery in '07, but he's been durable since. This year in the minors, Drabek allowed just 126 hits in 162 IP for a BAA of .215 and an ERA of 2.94. He has great potential and the Jays should be a little extra juiced here in support of Drabek, knowing he could be a key piece to the puzzle next season. Brad Bergeson has had a terrible year any way you look at it: 6.37 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 6 BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). He’s also allowed 22 jacks in 147 frames or 12% of his fly-balls allowed have left the yard. Perhaps that explains part of the reason why the Jays have crushed this stiff three times already this season. In fact, the Jays have gone deep on Bergeson five times in 15.2 innings and overall they’re hitting a whopping .386 off him. Bergeson has a 9.77 ERA in those three starts vs the Jays after allowing 27 hits and 17 earned runs in those 15.2 IP. The Jays taking back a tag here is true value. Wrong side favored. Play: Toronto +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY –1.02 over NY Yankees
James Shields' ERA is very likely to improve before the season's end, as his xERA is considerably lower than his actual ERA. The elite skills here have been undermined by an inflated hit rate and elevated hr/9. His unappealing surface ERA makes him an undervalued pitcher but his xERA of 3.85 confirms that Shields has been pitching as good as he’s ever pitched. He’s struck out 168 batters in 180 IP and has walked just 43. That pinpoint control is about as sweet as it gets and it’s not unusual to see Shields whiff eight or more in a start. He faced the Yanks back on Aug 1 and didn’t allow a run in seven full while striking out 11. Phil Hughes was skipped in the Yanks rotation last week because they want to keep his innings down. Translation: the man is tired. After a strong first half (3.58 ERA), Hughes has struggled in the second half, with a 5.21 ERA and a 4.88 xERA. His BPV is down from 88 to 47. After throwing only 105 innings last season, Hughes is already up to 155 IP this year. He's now at the 50 IP increase warning flag, which is a good measure for burnout symptoms and he'll add more innings through the rest of September and the post-season. The total here is posted at 9, indicating the books expect at least one of these pitchers to have a very good start and we doubt highly they expect it’ll come from Hughes. It also doesn’t hurt that the Rays are 24-8 over its last 32 home games while the Yanks have been average on the road all season long. Play: Tampa Bay –1.04 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Chicago +1.79 over ST. LOUIS
Chris Carpenter has thrown 209 innings this season. With a long history of injuries you would think the Cardinals would shut him down for the year instead of taking the risk that nothing goes wrong. But Tony LaRussa doesn’t like to lose. He thinks he’s smarter than anyone else but he’s not. He doesn’t care about Carpenter or anyone else because he’s leaving and couldn’t give a rat’s ass what happens to Carpenter. With the season over and the Cards out of it, now would be a good time to shut Carpenter down. He was tagged for eight runs - six earned - and eight hits in five innings in Friday’s 8-6 loss in Atlanta. He’s had a few shaky starts recently and fatigue is definitely a factor. In addition, the Cards have mentally checked out for the season. They’ve lost 21 of 29 and they’ve lost the first two games of this series by a combined score of 12-3. Carlos Zambrano is 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA in seven starts since returning to the rotation after attending anger-management counseling, knocking nearly two runs off his ERA from 5.61. He’s posted a 0.95 ERA in winning his last four outings and now he’ll face a Cardinal team that would rather be anywhere else other than around a drunk (LaRussa) telling them what to do and a cheater (McGwire) telling them what they’re doing wrong at the plate. Incidentally, McGwire was a career .230-hitter before he started taking steroids. Anyway, regardless of the outcome here, we’re going with the best of it at this price against this disinterested host. Play: Chicago +1.79 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.79 over ATLANTA
Note the 12:10 PM EST start. The first thing to note here is that the Braves are a poor-hitting club vs lefties and will face a good one here in John Lannan. The Braves have won just five of its last 13 games and that’s after facing the Mets, Pittsburgh, Florida, St. Louis and Washington, all non-playoff teams. Mike Minor has struggled in his three most recent starts in which he’s given up 23 hits and 12 earned runs in 14 IP. Minor’s flyball rate over his last two starts is an eye-opening 67% and now he has to battle his confidence as well. He certainly doesn’t warrant this price against Lannan. Lannan has posted back-to-back strong starts, giving him eight very good starts since returning from a mid-season minor-league demotion. The big difference is that he’s now throwing strikes and the turnaround has been dramatic. He has a 35/9 K/BB, 102 BPV, and 3.53 xERA since his return to the rotation and while one game could be a fluke, eight games is not. So, we have a very confident pitcher at a very sweet price going up against a fragile rookie and that’s what is known as a big overlay. Of course the Nats can win here. Play: Washington +1.79 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.10 over Arizona
Homer Bailey has posted five dominant performances in his six outings since returning to the rotation after being sidelined nearly three months with shoulder inflammation. He has a 31/7 K/BB in 37.1 IP since his return, including a nine-strikeout, zero-walk, seven-inning performance in his last start. He also has an xERA of 3.50 over that stretch and only two current D-Backs hitters (Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds) have faced Bailey in the past. Bailey has a great opportunity to dominate again. Joe Saunders is a bad pitcher that has very little chance of success at this park. He’s 0-3 on the road since his move to the NL with an ERA of 7.45. Saunders doesn’t strike out many, he’s always battling the strike zone and the Reds are 16-7 against southpaws at Great American. Overall, Saunders has allowed 96 hits in 75 road innings for a BAA of .320. Current Reds batters are hitting .326 off Saunders with Orlando Cabrera going 9-18 and Ramon Hernandez batting .412 (7-17). Cinci needs wins right now and they won’t come mush easier than this in terms of pitching matchups. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 36 33 1 +26.12 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 206 243 4 +29.60 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Toronto +1.06 over BALTIMORE
One of our favorite angles in baseball is backing a team with a promising September call-up making his first start and that’s precisely the case with Kyle Drabek. Drabek is expected to make three starts to end the season. He was acquired from the Phillies last December as part of the Roy Halladay deal. He's gotten better as the '10 season has progressed and he even threw a no-hitter this season. Drabek doesn't have a dominant strikeout rate, but he does a nice job of inducing weak contact. His 88-94 mph fastball that features late life and his plus curveball are both high-quality offerings that hitters don't hit hard. He's a fine athlete who repeats his delivery and has decent command despite his moderate walk rate. Drabek keeps the ball down and gets his fair share of groundballs. He underwent Tommy John surgery in '07, but he's been durable since. This year in the minors, Drabek allowed just 126 hits in 162 IP for a BAA of .215 and an ERA of 2.94. He has great potential and the Jays should be a little extra juiced here in support of Drabek, knowing he could be a key piece to the puzzle next season. Brad Bergeson has had a terrible year any way you look at it: 6.37 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 6 BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). He’s also allowed 22 jacks in 147 frames or 12% of his fly-balls allowed have left the yard. Perhaps that explains part of the reason why the Jays have crushed this stiff three times already this season. In fact, the Jays have gone deep on Bergeson five times in 15.2 innings and overall they’re hitting a whopping .386 off him. Bergeson has a 9.77 ERA in those three starts vs the Jays after allowing 27 hits and 17 earned runs in those 15.2 IP. The Jays taking back a tag here is true value. Wrong side favored. Play: Toronto +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY –1.02 over NY Yankees
James Shields' ERA is very likely to improve before the season's end, as his xERA is considerably lower than his actual ERA. The elite skills here have been undermined by an inflated hit rate and elevated hr/9. His unappealing surface ERA makes him an undervalued pitcher but his xERA of 3.85 confirms that Shields has been pitching as good as he’s ever pitched. He’s struck out 168 batters in 180 IP and has walked just 43. That pinpoint control is about as sweet as it gets and it’s not unusual to see Shields whiff eight or more in a start. He faced the Yanks back on Aug 1 and didn’t allow a run in seven full while striking out 11. Phil Hughes was skipped in the Yanks rotation last week because they want to keep his innings down. Translation: the man is tired. After a strong first half (3.58 ERA), Hughes has struggled in the second half, with a 5.21 ERA and a 4.88 xERA. His BPV is down from 88 to 47. After throwing only 105 innings last season, Hughes is already up to 155 IP this year. He's now at the 50 IP increase warning flag, which is a good measure for burnout symptoms and he'll add more innings through the rest of September and the post-season. The total here is posted at 9, indicating the books expect at least one of these pitchers to have a very good start and we doubt highly they expect it’ll come from Hughes. It also doesn’t hurt that the Rays are 24-8 over its last 32 home games while the Yanks have been average on the road all season long. Play: Tampa Bay –1.04 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Chicago +1.79 over ST. LOUIS
Chris Carpenter has thrown 209 innings this season. With a long history of injuries you would think the Cardinals would shut him down for the year instead of taking the risk that nothing goes wrong. But Tony LaRussa doesn’t like to lose. He thinks he’s smarter than anyone else but he’s not. He doesn’t care about Carpenter or anyone else because he’s leaving and couldn’t give a rat’s ass what happens to Carpenter. With the season over and the Cards out of it, now would be a good time to shut Carpenter down. He was tagged for eight runs - six earned - and eight hits in five innings in Friday’s 8-6 loss in Atlanta. He’s had a few shaky starts recently and fatigue is definitely a factor. In addition, the Cards have mentally checked out for the season. They’ve lost 21 of 29 and they’ve lost the first two games of this series by a combined score of 12-3. Carlos Zambrano is 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA in seven starts since returning to the rotation after attending anger-management counseling, knocking nearly two runs off his ERA from 5.61. He’s posted a 0.95 ERA in winning his last four outings and now he’ll face a Cardinal team that would rather be anywhere else other than around a drunk (LaRussa) telling them what to do and a cheater (McGwire) telling them what they’re doing wrong at the plate. Incidentally, McGwire was a career .230-hitter before he started taking steroids. Anyway, regardless of the outcome here, we’re going with the best of it at this price against this disinterested host. Play: Chicago +1.79 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.79 over ATLANTA
Note the 12:10 PM EST start. The first thing to note here is that the Braves are a poor-hitting club vs lefties and will face a good one here in John Lannan. The Braves have won just five of its last 13 games and that’s after facing the Mets, Pittsburgh, Florida, St. Louis and Washington, all non-playoff teams. Mike Minor has struggled in his three most recent starts in which he’s given up 23 hits and 12 earned runs in 14 IP. Minor’s flyball rate over his last two starts is an eye-opening 67% and now he has to battle his confidence as well. He certainly doesn’t warrant this price against Lannan. Lannan has posted back-to-back strong starts, giving him eight very good starts since returning from a mid-season minor-league demotion. The big difference is that he’s now throwing strikes and the turnaround has been dramatic. He has a 35/9 K/BB, 102 BPV, and 3.53 xERA since his return to the rotation and while one game could be a fluke, eight games is not. So, we have a very confident pitcher at a very sweet price going up against a fragile rookie and that’s what is known as a big overlay. Of course the Nats can win here. Play: Washington +1.79 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.10 over Arizona
Homer Bailey has posted five dominant performances in his six outings since returning to the rotation after being sidelined nearly three months with shoulder inflammation. He has a 31/7 K/BB in 37.1 IP since his return, including a nine-strikeout, zero-walk, seven-inning performance in his last start. He also has an xERA of 3.50 over that stretch and only two current D-Backs hitters (Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds) have faced Bailey in the past. Bailey has a great opportunity to dominate again. Joe Saunders is a bad pitcher that has very little chance of success at this park. He’s 0-3 on the road since his move to the NL with an ERA of 7.45. Saunders doesn’t strike out many, he’s always battling the strike zone and the Reds are 16-7 against southpaws at Great American. Overall, Saunders has allowed 96 hits in 75 road innings for a BAA of .320. Current Reds batters are hitting .326 off Saunders with Orlando Cabrera going 9-18 and Ramon Hernandez batting .412 (7-17). Cinci needs wins right now and they won’t come mush easier than this in terms of pitching matchups. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
