What's so interesting about handicapping -- which I am trademarking as the Bitter Science -- is how the same games often bubble up as hot choices among the wise guy set. I realized this when I was talking to Sal from
madduxsports.com for the System of the Week.
The first thing he told me was, "I am looking to play on Arizona against Iowa. Man, this situation … it is a damn good situation." Then he paused, as if he was having second thoughts, before continuing. "But I guess I will give it out."
Earlier this week I had gotten an e-mail from Big Al McMordie, who told me he was going to play Arizona plus-2 against the Hawkeyes. And then I logged on to ESPN.com this morning and saw that Insider and the Mag's very own college football expert, Bruce Feldman, was
highlighting this game as one of his Week 3 intriguing storylines.
It's only Wednesday, but Wildcats fever is spreading.
How does that happen? How is it that Bruce -- a very tapped in, very smart college football writer who spends almost as much time talking to coaches as he does planning his hard-core workouts -- ends up in the same place as handicappers who never pick up the phone?
Clearly, he starts with high-profile matchups and then does his statistical breakdowns. In his game write-up, he noted that Iowa hasn't won a game west of the Rockies since 1987. Then he followed up his macro historical trend with some smart, game-specific analysis. "Iowa did handle Zona last year in Iowa City, 27-17," he wrote. "But that was the game before Mike Stoops swapped QBs and put
Nick Foles into the lineup. … Foles has been superb thus far, hitting on 49 of 59 passes for 574 yards."
Now let's consider Sal. He won't call anyone, and he doesn't consult the schedule for intriguing matchups. He consults his database that has millions of sets of stats and scenarios going back 30 years. He likes it this way -- working alone in suburban Chicago, none of his neighbors really knowing his business.
Sal plugs a query into his database such as, "show me how all teams do against the spread if they have won two straight by 21 or more." We also know he considers the first four games of the year to be early season. In that situation, he likes to play teams that are off a blowout win for two reasons: (1) The team will be full of confidence; and (2) because it's early in the year, bookmakers may not be buying into the team yet, so the numbers they post might be a little low. "For this situation, I plugged in: home teams off a blowout win by 40 or more that have a greater than .500 record. The record for that scenario is 120-58 against the spread."
There were three games that matched his scenario this week: TCU minus-21.5 over Baylor, Mizzou minus-14 over San Diego State and Iowa minus-1.5 over Arizona. Of those three, the only one that interested Sal was Iowa-Zona. "For sure I like Zona," he says. "They lost last year at Iowa so they have revenge. And Iowa has to travel to the West Coast off of [a] rivalry game against Iowa State. And while they looked good, I think Zona is underrated this year. I bet on them the first week against Toledo and the offense gained 7.6 yards per play and allowed only 3.7 ypp. They played a piece of crap team the next week but were still dominant. Plus I think it's a good spot; there is some line value. Arizona is getting 1.5, and that is just because Iowa started out the season with public perception on its side."
This week, that seems to be changing.
hno:
