Yesterday 0 1 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 37 33 1 +29.44 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 210 245 4 +36.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOUSTON –1.01 over Cincinnati
Johnny Cueto has a 1.67 ERA over his last four starts but a close look reveals that he breezed through the lineups of the Pirates, Cubbies and Brewers. His one average start over that aforementioned stretch came against the Rockies and he was also hit very hard recently against the Dodgers. St. Louis and Atlanta. Against that trio from July 31 to Aug 20 (he served his suspension during that stretch and missed two starts) in the span of 21 days, Cueto allowed 22 hits and 14 earned runs in 13.1 innings for an ERA of 9.33. Also note his high strand rate of 83% over his last five starts and that he’s thrown a fifth (33) of his total innings this season against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is largely responsible for a big portion of Cueto’s solid numbers because he’s allowed just 15 hits against them and just four runs. Throw the Pirates out of the equation and his numbers head south. Furthermore, the Reds are laboring badly. They have just five wins over its last 13 games with four of those wins coming against the Pirates ands D-Backs. Incidentally, three of those four games they could have easily lost, as two of them against the Pirates went into extra frames and one win against the D-Backs was about an inch away from going to extra frames when Jay Bruce leaped at the fence and made a spectacular catch at the wall to seal it. The Reds were swept recently by the Rocks, they lost two of three to the Cards, they barely beat the Pirates in Cincinnati and they split four games with the D-Backs, also in Cinci. Wandy Rodriguez has gone 4-1 with a 1.30 ERA in his last 10 starts, pitching at least seven innings eight times. He also has a 2.99 xERA during this period, so this is no surface stat fluke. The man is on fire and so are the Astros. If the season started in June, Houston would have about a 10-game division lead and there is just no way the Astros should be a pooch in this spot. Wrong side favored. Play: Houston –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Colorado –1 –1.05 over LOS ANGELES
You can lay the 1½-runs if laying a single run is not an option for you, as it’s hard to envision the Dodgers competing here. First, they threw in the towel about a month ago and perhaps more than any team in the majors, they can’t wait for this season to finally end. The Dodgers are batting a pathetic .174 over its last 10 games and they’re dead last in the majors in every offensive category over the last month. Now they’re being asked to face Ubaldo Jiminez, a great pitcher that they’ve faced twice this year and are batting .234 against him. Jiminez is 0-2 vs the Dodgers this year but an ERA of 2.57 is much mpore significant than the zero wins. One has to wonder how the Dodgers will get a hit, let alone a run. The Rockies are pumped up and raring to go. The Dodgers couldn’t care less and that fact alone makes the Rocks a solid play here. Incidentally, in three games this year versus Colorado, Hiroki Kuroda has allowed 25 hits and 11 ER in 16.1 innings for an ERA of 6.06. In his career against the Rocks he’s 0-3 after allowing 49 hits and 25 ER in 34 frames for an ERA of 6.55. This is both a psychological and pitching mismatch. Play: Colorado –1 –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Detroit +1.21 over CHICAGO
Speaking of teams on a low and one need not look further than the South Side. Any hopes of reaching the post-season are now gone after the Twins swept the White Sox. The season is all but officially over for Chicago but they’ll have to come to the park again tonight and face Max Scherzer. Scherzer has developed into the anchor of many starting rotations given these 2H results: 1.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. While his 3.67 xERA suggests he hasn't been this good, his skills have been elite. Reports are that he has improved his change-up, giving him three legit out pitches. After a scorching August, Edwin Jackson has regressed badly in two September starts. He allowed 13 hits in just five innings in his last start against the Royals and prior to that these same Tigers also hit him pretty hard. Jackson has had enough ups and downs in his career to make us skeptical of any short-term hot streak and once again he’s reverted to that trend of inconsistency. Focus and preparation appears to be an issue for this guy and after a long season in which he’s suffered a whole slew of ups and downs, he, too, just like his teammates, may have psychologically checked out for the year. The South Side has dropped seven of its last nine games and looked pretty ugly in doing so. Play: Detroit +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 37 33 1 +29.44 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 210 245 4 +36.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOUSTON –1.01 over Cincinnati
Johnny Cueto has a 1.67 ERA over his last four starts but a close look reveals that he breezed through the lineups of the Pirates, Cubbies and Brewers. His one average start over that aforementioned stretch came against the Rockies and he was also hit very hard recently against the Dodgers. St. Louis and Atlanta. Against that trio from July 31 to Aug 20 (he served his suspension during that stretch and missed two starts) in the span of 21 days, Cueto allowed 22 hits and 14 earned runs in 13.1 innings for an ERA of 9.33. Also note his high strand rate of 83% over his last five starts and that he’s thrown a fifth (33) of his total innings this season against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is largely responsible for a big portion of Cueto’s solid numbers because he’s allowed just 15 hits against them and just four runs. Throw the Pirates out of the equation and his numbers head south. Furthermore, the Reds are laboring badly. They have just five wins over its last 13 games with four of those wins coming against the Pirates ands D-Backs. Incidentally, three of those four games they could have easily lost, as two of them against the Pirates went into extra frames and one win against the D-Backs was about an inch away from going to extra frames when Jay Bruce leaped at the fence and made a spectacular catch at the wall to seal it. The Reds were swept recently by the Rocks, they lost two of three to the Cards, they barely beat the Pirates in Cincinnati and they split four games with the D-Backs, also in Cinci. Wandy Rodriguez has gone 4-1 with a 1.30 ERA in his last 10 starts, pitching at least seven innings eight times. He also has a 2.99 xERA during this period, so this is no surface stat fluke. The man is on fire and so are the Astros. If the season started in June, Houston would have about a 10-game division lead and there is just no way the Astros should be a pooch in this spot. Wrong side favored. Play: Houston –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Colorado –1 –1.05 over LOS ANGELES
You can lay the 1½-runs if laying a single run is not an option for you, as it’s hard to envision the Dodgers competing here. First, they threw in the towel about a month ago and perhaps more than any team in the majors, they can’t wait for this season to finally end. The Dodgers are batting a pathetic .174 over its last 10 games and they’re dead last in the majors in every offensive category over the last month. Now they’re being asked to face Ubaldo Jiminez, a great pitcher that they’ve faced twice this year and are batting .234 against him. Jiminez is 0-2 vs the Dodgers this year but an ERA of 2.57 is much mpore significant than the zero wins. One has to wonder how the Dodgers will get a hit, let alone a run. The Rockies are pumped up and raring to go. The Dodgers couldn’t care less and that fact alone makes the Rocks a solid play here. Incidentally, in three games this year versus Colorado, Hiroki Kuroda has allowed 25 hits and 11 ER in 16.1 innings for an ERA of 6.06. In his career against the Rocks he’s 0-3 after allowing 49 hits and 25 ER in 34 frames for an ERA of 6.55. This is both a psychological and pitching mismatch. Play: Colorado –1 –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Detroit +1.21 over CHICAGO
Speaking of teams on a low and one need not look further than the South Side. Any hopes of reaching the post-season are now gone after the Twins swept the White Sox. The season is all but officially over for Chicago but they’ll have to come to the park again tonight and face Max Scherzer. Scherzer has developed into the anchor of many starting rotations given these 2H results: 1.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. While his 3.67 xERA suggests he hasn't been this good, his skills have been elite. Reports are that he has improved his change-up, giving him three legit out pitches. After a scorching August, Edwin Jackson has regressed badly in two September starts. He allowed 13 hits in just five innings in his last start against the Royals and prior to that these same Tigers also hit him pretty hard. Jackson has had enough ups and downs in his career to make us skeptical of any short-term hot streak and once again he’s reverted to that trend of inconsistency. Focus and preparation appears to be an issue for this guy and after a long season in which he’s suffered a whole slew of ups and downs, he, too, just like his teammates, may have psychologically checked out for the year. The South Side has dropped seven of its last nine games and looked pretty ugly in doing so. Play: Detroit +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
