Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.44 Units Last 30 Days 36 32 1 +26.40 Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 214 248 4 +39.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.02 over Atlanta
The Phillies are red-hot both in the win column and at the plate. In fact, they have five hitters in the National League’s top 16 in OPS this month: Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz. They’ve also reeled off eight in a row and an incredible 42 out of its last 57 games. It’s no coincidence that Hamels, Halliday and Oswalt were lined up for this series. Roy Halliday needs no introductions. The man can flat out bring it and now that he can smell the post-season, you can expect him to double his already high competitive intensity. There was a lot to like in Mike Minor's first four MLB starts. His control was good and he even struck out 12 Cubbies in one of those starts. That must seem like an eternity ago to Minor because things have taken a dramatic turnaround for the worse. In three September starts the league is hitting a robust .351 off him. He’s allowed 14 earned runs over his last 14 IP and his confidence has to be fragile right now. A close look reveals a low ground-ball percentage in all of his starts combined of 34% and a fly-ball % of 54%. That’s asking for big trouble in this park against this team and chances are good he’ll run into it. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
NY Mets/FLORIDA over 8
Mile Pelfrey is coming off back-to-back strong starts but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Both starts came at Citi Field and that joint can make anyone look good. Pay more attention to the fact that Pelfrey has walked 7 and struck out 10 over his last three starts. Prior to those two good starts he was whacked in two road starts to the tune of 14 hits and 10 ER in 8.2 frames. Pelfrey’s ERA isn't half bad, but when you take a look at the xERA of 5.03 over the last month, it’s pretty clear that we should stick a fork in Pelfrey for the year ... he's done. Also note that on the road this season he’s 5-6 with an ERA of 5.30 and a BAA of .331. Last time he faced these Marlins, they rocked him for 12 hits in 4.2 inning (.522 BAA) and current Marlins batters are hitting .342 off him in 79 career AB’s. Pelfrey has truly benefitted from pitching at home but get this guy on the road and he’s about as intimidating as a 145-lb bouncer. The Cubs originally signed Adalberto Mendez as a non-drafted FA out of the Dominican Republic in 2001. He has toiled for eight minor league campaigns mostly in relief but this year at the minor league level they attempted to turn him into a starter. He made nine starts at New Orleans and went 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA in 40.1 IP. He's hasn't gone beyond six innings in any start, and at 6-2, 160, there are some issues regarding his stamina, not to mention potential control issues too. When Mendez starts missing the plate he seldom finds it again. He’s walked seven batters in his two major league starts covering 10.1 frames. His stuff is ok but there is way more risk than upside and combined, these two pitchers could and likely will implode big time. This is a low and very beatable number. Play: NY Mets/Florida over 8 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.02 over Atlanta
The Phillies are red-hot both in the win column and at the plate. In fact, they have five hitters in the National League’s top 16 in OPS this month: Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz. They’ve also reeled off eight in a row and an incredible 42 out of its last 57 games. It’s no coincidence that Hamels, Halliday and Oswalt were lined up for this series. Roy Halliday needs no introductions. The man can flat out bring it and now that he can smell the post-season, you can expect him to double his already high competitive intensity. There was a lot to like in Mike Minor's first four MLB starts. His control was good and he even struck out 12 Cubbies in one of those starts. That must seem like an eternity ago to Minor because things have taken a dramatic turnaround for the worse. In three September starts the league is hitting a robust .351 off him. He’s allowed 14 earned runs over his last 14 IP and his confidence has to be fragile right now. A close look reveals a low ground-ball percentage in all of his starts combined of 34% and a fly-ball % of 54%. That’s asking for big trouble in this park against this team and chances are good he’ll run into it. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
NY Mets/FLORIDA over 8
Mile Pelfrey is coming off back-to-back strong starts but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Both starts came at Citi Field and that joint can make anyone look good. Pay more attention to the fact that Pelfrey has walked 7 and struck out 10 over his last three starts. Prior to those two good starts he was whacked in two road starts to the tune of 14 hits and 10 ER in 8.2 frames. Pelfrey’s ERA isn't half bad, but when you take a look at the xERA of 5.03 over the last month, it’s pretty clear that we should stick a fork in Pelfrey for the year ... he's done. Also note that on the road this season he’s 5-6 with an ERA of 5.30 and a BAA of .331. Last time he faced these Marlins, they rocked him for 12 hits in 4.2 inning (.522 BAA) and current Marlins batters are hitting .342 off him in 79 career AB’s. Pelfrey has truly benefitted from pitching at home but get this guy on the road and he’s about as intimidating as a 145-lb bouncer. The Cubs originally signed Adalberto Mendez as a non-drafted FA out of the Dominican Republic in 2001. He has toiled for eight minor league campaigns mostly in relief but this year at the minor league level they attempted to turn him into a starter. He made nine starts at New Orleans and went 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA in 40.1 IP. He's hasn't gone beyond six innings in any start, and at 6-2, 160, there are some issues regarding his stamina, not to mention potential control issues too. When Mendez starts missing the plate he seldom finds it again. He’s walked seven batters in his two major league starts covering 10.1 frames. His stuff is ok but there is way more risk than upside and combined, these two pitchers could and likely will implode big time. This is a low and very beatable number. Play: NY Mets/Florida over 8 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
