Yesterday 1 1 0 -0.02 Units
Last 30 Days 37 32 1 +28.38 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 215 249 4 +39.80 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Colorado –1½ +1.04 over ARIZONA
By all accounts, 2010 will go down as a breakout season for Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez He hasn't been as dominant after the All-Star break as before, but he still owns a sub-3.00 ERA, a career best 1.16 WHIP and has a chance to win 20 games and fan 200 batters. Jimenez coaxes lots of ground balls and he's also allowed fewer line drives this year than in the past. That's helped hold down opponents' OBA and kept runs off the board and everything you see about this guy is genuine. He’s that good. To say that Troy Tulowitzki is seeing the ball well would be the understatement of the season. His September line is .371/.421/1.057 with 14 HR and 33 RBI. To put those last two numbers in proper context, his HR/RBI totals for the prior five months were 12 and 55. He is the main reason why Colorado leads the NL in runs, HR, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS this month. Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Spilborghs are batting over .400 this month, while Melvin Mora is batting .350, so there are a number of Rockies contributing to this late-season surge. The Rocks have seen Rodrigo Lopez three times already this season and they’re batting a combined .284 against him but that’s when they were laboring to score runs. Lopez has an xERA of 5.03 and a low groundball rate of 38%. He’s started 15 games at Chase Field this year and has three wins to go along with a BAA of .290 and he’s also been tagged for 17 jacks in 93 IP at home. This one could get ugly. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Houston –1.07 over WASHINGTON
Wandy Rodriguez basically a pick’em against Jason Marquis? Regardless of how this one turns out, we’re going with the best of it and if this was a political contest it would be consider a landslide in Rodriguez’s favor. Marquis is a fill-in for the rest of the year and while his groundball percentage is good, nothing else is. In five games started at JFK this year, Marquis is 0-5 with an 8.66 ERA and a BAA of .322. He’s allowed an incredible 16% of flyballs to leave the park when the league average is 4%. In his last start he recorded one out and was yanked after allowing six earned runs. Since beating St. Louis on Aug. 31, Rodriguez has no record and a 3.15 ERA and has been one of the leagues best pitchers since June. He took a no-no into the sixth inning of his last start against the Reds and it’s been two months and 11 starts since he gave up more than three runs in a game. The Nats are just 7-10 at home against southpaws and frankly, this has to be considered a hugely undervalued favorite. Play: Houston -1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
San Diego +1.22 over LOS ANGELES
This game features teams in totally different places. San Diego is in the middle of a three-team battle for the NL West crown. Los Angeles is in disarray from the fiasco at the ownership level, to Joe Torre’s imminent departure, to their 5-14 September that has been supported by NL lows in runs (39), BA (.195), OBA (.265), SLG (.298) and OPS (.562). Based on those facts alone, the Padres are a live pup. Ted Lilly may be tiring also. He’s allowed an alarming 30 bombs this season and that’s supported by an extremely high FB rate of 52%. His 29% groundball rate is one of the lowest in the majors. Of course, Chavez Ravine is a good place for Lilly to pitch because of that high flyball % and his control is still elite. However, his xERA over the last month is 4.46 with a GB rate of just 20%. Those are concerning numbers. By contrast, Tim Stauffer has an outstanding GB rate of 53%. In three starts since returning to the rotation, Stauffer has been near unhittable in the first five innings and he has the leagues best bullpen behind him. Having said all that, this one is more about playing against an uninterested Dodger team that checked out about five weeks ago. Play: San Diego +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 37 32 1 +28.38 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 215 249 4 +39.80 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Colorado –1½ +1.04 over ARIZONA
By all accounts, 2010 will go down as a breakout season for Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez He hasn't been as dominant after the All-Star break as before, but he still owns a sub-3.00 ERA, a career best 1.16 WHIP and has a chance to win 20 games and fan 200 batters. Jimenez coaxes lots of ground balls and he's also allowed fewer line drives this year than in the past. That's helped hold down opponents' OBA and kept runs off the board and everything you see about this guy is genuine. He’s that good. To say that Troy Tulowitzki is seeing the ball well would be the understatement of the season. His September line is .371/.421/1.057 with 14 HR and 33 RBI. To put those last two numbers in proper context, his HR/RBI totals for the prior five months were 12 and 55. He is the main reason why Colorado leads the NL in runs, HR, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS this month. Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Spilborghs are batting over .400 this month, while Melvin Mora is batting .350, so there are a number of Rockies contributing to this late-season surge. The Rocks have seen Rodrigo Lopez three times already this season and they’re batting a combined .284 against him but that’s when they were laboring to score runs. Lopez has an xERA of 5.03 and a low groundball rate of 38%. He’s started 15 games at Chase Field this year and has three wins to go along with a BAA of .290 and he’s also been tagged for 17 jacks in 93 IP at home. This one could get ugly. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Houston –1.07 over WASHINGTON
Wandy Rodriguez basically a pick’em against Jason Marquis? Regardless of how this one turns out, we’re going with the best of it and if this was a political contest it would be consider a landslide in Rodriguez’s favor. Marquis is a fill-in for the rest of the year and while his groundball percentage is good, nothing else is. In five games started at JFK this year, Marquis is 0-5 with an 8.66 ERA and a BAA of .322. He’s allowed an incredible 16% of flyballs to leave the park when the league average is 4%. In his last start he recorded one out and was yanked after allowing six earned runs. Since beating St. Louis on Aug. 31, Rodriguez has no record and a 3.15 ERA and has been one of the leagues best pitchers since June. He took a no-no into the sixth inning of his last start against the Reds and it’s been two months and 11 starts since he gave up more than three runs in a game. The Nats are just 7-10 at home against southpaws and frankly, this has to be considered a hugely undervalued favorite. Play: Houston -1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
San Diego +1.22 over LOS ANGELES
This game features teams in totally different places. San Diego is in the middle of a three-team battle for the NL West crown. Los Angeles is in disarray from the fiasco at the ownership level, to Joe Torre’s imminent departure, to their 5-14 September that has been supported by NL lows in runs (39), BA (.195), OBA (.265), SLG (.298) and OPS (.562). Based on those facts alone, the Padres are a live pup. Ted Lilly may be tiring also. He’s allowed an alarming 30 bombs this season and that’s supported by an extremely high FB rate of 52%. His 29% groundball rate is one of the lowest in the majors. Of course, Chavez Ravine is a good place for Lilly to pitch because of that high flyball % and his control is still elite. However, his xERA over the last month is 4.46 with a GB rate of just 20%. Those are concerning numbers. By contrast, Tim Stauffer has an outstanding GB rate of 53%. In three starts since returning to the rotation, Stauffer has been near unhittable in the first five innings and he has the leagues best bullpen behind him. Having said all that, this one is more about playing against an uninterested Dodger team that checked out about five weeks ago. Play: San Diego +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
