three tonight w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Cincinnati +1.08 over SAN DIEGO
The Reds magic number is three and of the all the games in this series one has to believe this one is more winnable than the others. Chris Young (remember him?) was named to start here and this will be Young's second start since his only game of the year way back in April. He lasted four innings against the Cardinals in his last start six days ago and although he only allowed three hits and one run, he also walked three batters and that’s a big concern. In the minors this year, Young has walked 12 batters in 14 IP. So, what can we expect of Young? Hard to say since he's been out so much and had so many injuries the last few years. In 2006 and 2007 he had some very productive seasons, but it's been injuries and interruptions since. Last season in 76 IP he had an ERA of 5.21 that flattered his 5.80 xERA. In a park where runs are hard to come by you can count on Young to aid the Reds by walking some hitters and that’s playing with fire. By contrast, Bronson Arroyo rarely walks anyone. Arroyo pitches half his games at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark but when he leaves those confines he’s been terrific. On the road, he’s 10-5 with an ERA of 3.77 and a BAA of .232. His 1.17 WHIP is one of the leagues top marks and he comes in facing a Padre team that has lost four of its last seven to the uninterested Dodgers and Cardinals. Now San Diego will face a determined bunch that is looking to lock up the division and a postseason appearance. Play: Cincinnati +1.08 (Risking 2 units).

MILWAUKEE –1½ +1.36 over Florida
After pitching a pair of scoreless innings in relief this month, right-hander Mark Rogers will make his first career start for the Brewers. Keep your eye on this guy. After missing all of '07 and '08, the hard-throwing Rogers returned in '09 and showed glimpses of what made him the fifth overall pick in the '04 draft. Rogers still struggles to command his pitches, but his fastball is back to its usual self and his hard, tight slider is a solid put away pitch. He pitches from a deceptive drop-and-drive delivery that can be tough for hitters to solve. His 91-97 mph fastball looks quicker because of it. Rogers is a definite groundball pitcher who rarely allows the long ball. His slider, though inconsistent, gives him a weapon against hitters from both sides. He also has a curveball and an average changeup at his disposal. Rogers had difficulty with command prior to his shoulder surgeries and he continues to experience bouts of wildness. If he improves his command, he could vault back up the Brewers prospect charts. He’ll face Andrew Miller. Miller's eroding skills have been on a two year decline and it’s not getting any better. He has a walk rate of 6.3, almost two batters worse than his strikeout rate of 4.5. He’s allowed 19 runs and walked 10 over 10 1-3 innings during his last three starts. Miller has an ERA of 8.17, his groundball rate is 35% and his line-drive rate is a hefty 30%. This guy has been batting practice out there and there’s no reason whatsoever to think that stops now. Incidentally, the Brew Crew has won five straight at home. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.36 (Risking 2 units).

Kansas City +1.10 over CLEVELAND
Luke Hochevar missed three months from June to September 7 when he threw three innings against the Twins. He’s made two starts since then and he’s looking better and stronger each time. Hochevar went 7-13 with a 6.55 ERA in 143 IP at KC last season. However, he developed a splitter in 2H and bam! Great stuff to go along with elite command. His strand % and HR/FB rained on the parade, but xERA says this is a pitcher whose surface stats make him hugely undervalued, especially against a Tribe squad that’s lost five in a row and that’s seeing BB’s. Josh Tomlin has a groundball rate of 29%. He fooled some folks in his first few starts but that’s over with now. Tomlin had a 6.14 ERA in Double-AA last season and his ERA has been progressively rising for a few starts now and his xERA is at a dull 5.19. Also note the Royals are swinging some pretty sweet bats these days and in fact, they’ve scored 51 times over its last nine games. Play: Kansas City +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
 

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