Yesterday 0 1 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 29 34 1 +3.56 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 219 255 4 +37.24 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Chicago +1.50 over SAN DIEGO
Matt Latos is really having a tough time of late and it must be attributed to the fact that he’s fatigued and running strictly on fumes. Last season he threw just 51 IP at SD and just 84 IP above A-ball. He’s now up to 173 IP and counting. Latos has allowed 16 runs over his last three starts covering just 10.1 frames. It’s also worth noting that he faced San Fran, St, Louis and the Dodgers over that stretch. In his last start vs the feeble Dodgers he was laboring the whole time he was out there. You could see he was fighting it right from the start and he ended up throwing five frames and allowing six hits and three runs. In four September starts, Latos is 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA and a BAA of .303. These teams that are out of it are jacked right up to beat these teams that are in it. Wins for these contenders are getting tougher and tougher to come by. The Cubbies came in here last night and took the opener 1-0. Meanwhile, Ryan Dempster probably has less bad outings than any pitcher in the business in the past three years. This guy is tough as shoe leather when he’s on his game. Dempster's name will never be mentioned among the NL's elite starters, but he deserves way more respect than he sometimes gets. Dempster is on track for another year of 200-plus IP, 170-plus Ks and ERA below 4.00 and his xERA of 3.88 confirms that he’s no fluke and never has been. This “W” is going to be a very tough one for the Padres to put in the column. Will Venable, one of the game's hottest hitters with a current 24-for-52 stretch, was scratched from Monday's lineup with back soreness. Matt Stairs replaced him. Definite overlay. Play: Chicago +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.72 over ATLANTA
The Braves are hanging in there by the skin of their teeth and things sure don’t get any easier here. Atlanta is seeing BB’s right now and in fact, over its last seven games they’ve scored a total of 16 runs. Ok, we’ll excuse them for their struggles in Philly when they faced Halliday, Oswalt and Hamels but over its last four games against Jordan Zimmerman, Yuneski Maya, Livan Hernandez and Alejandro Sanabia, they scored 11 runs. In a desperate effort to reach the post season, the Braves are starting both Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe on three days rest. Hudson has surprised with a sub-3.00 ERA this season, best among Atlanta starters, but has struggled down the stretch with a 6.10 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in September. He’s been victimized by the long ball this month with an inflated 37% hr/f and 2.0 hr/9 in his five September starts, spanning 31 IP. He’s already thrown an eye-popping 215 innings this season and he, too, could be suffering from fatigue. These pressure-filled September innings are taking its toll on Hudson and again, he’ll pitch on just three days rest here. Annibal Sanchez has filthy stuff. He’s still prone to periodic control issues but when he’s throwing strikes he’s as tough as they come. He’s laboring too in September but the big difference is that he’s not the one laying –1.85. Sanchez skills are equal to or better than Hudson’s and he’s 10 years his junior. Another overlay on a live squad playing the spoiler role. Play: Florida +1.72 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit –1½ +1.26 over CLEVELAND
Mitch Talbot is a pitcher in trouble. This is a guy that has had moderate success this season but don’t be fooled. The league has since figured him out and he’s not getting away with walking folks like he was earlier in the year. In fact, in seven of his last eight starts, he walked more batters than he struck out. Over that stretch of eight games he’s walked 22 and struck out 17. At home this year, Talbot has allowed 102 hits in 82 frames for a BAA of .307 and an ERA of 6.31. He’s made three starts vs the Tigers this season and all they’ve done is hit .310 off him and scored nine times in 15 IP. Incidentally, in those three starts vs the Tigers he walked 11 and struck out 9. In addition, the Detroit offense is clicking in September, leading the AL in scoring while averaging over six runs per contest. By contrast, the Indians offense has been held to three or less runs in 12 games already this month, while being shutout four times. Now they’ll have to face Max Scherzer and his ferocious desire to win. No pitcher in baseball has been better than Scherzer in the 2H. His 1.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP tells you all you need to know. This guy is the straight goods and chances are strong he’ll dominate this weak hitting foe. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 29 34 1 +3.56 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 219 255 4 +37.24 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Chicago +1.50 over SAN DIEGO
Matt Latos is really having a tough time of late and it must be attributed to the fact that he’s fatigued and running strictly on fumes. Last season he threw just 51 IP at SD and just 84 IP above A-ball. He’s now up to 173 IP and counting. Latos has allowed 16 runs over his last three starts covering just 10.1 frames. It’s also worth noting that he faced San Fran, St, Louis and the Dodgers over that stretch. In his last start vs the feeble Dodgers he was laboring the whole time he was out there. You could see he was fighting it right from the start and he ended up throwing five frames and allowing six hits and three runs. In four September starts, Latos is 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA and a BAA of .303. These teams that are out of it are jacked right up to beat these teams that are in it. Wins for these contenders are getting tougher and tougher to come by. The Cubbies came in here last night and took the opener 1-0. Meanwhile, Ryan Dempster probably has less bad outings than any pitcher in the business in the past three years. This guy is tough as shoe leather when he’s on his game. Dempster's name will never be mentioned among the NL's elite starters, but he deserves way more respect than he sometimes gets. Dempster is on track for another year of 200-plus IP, 170-plus Ks and ERA below 4.00 and his xERA of 3.88 confirms that he’s no fluke and never has been. This “W” is going to be a very tough one for the Padres to put in the column. Will Venable, one of the game's hottest hitters with a current 24-for-52 stretch, was scratched from Monday's lineup with back soreness. Matt Stairs replaced him. Definite overlay. Play: Chicago +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.72 over ATLANTA
The Braves are hanging in there by the skin of their teeth and things sure don’t get any easier here. Atlanta is seeing BB’s right now and in fact, over its last seven games they’ve scored a total of 16 runs. Ok, we’ll excuse them for their struggles in Philly when they faced Halliday, Oswalt and Hamels but over its last four games against Jordan Zimmerman, Yuneski Maya, Livan Hernandez and Alejandro Sanabia, they scored 11 runs. In a desperate effort to reach the post season, the Braves are starting both Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe on three days rest. Hudson has surprised with a sub-3.00 ERA this season, best among Atlanta starters, but has struggled down the stretch with a 6.10 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in September. He’s been victimized by the long ball this month with an inflated 37% hr/f and 2.0 hr/9 in his five September starts, spanning 31 IP. He’s already thrown an eye-popping 215 innings this season and he, too, could be suffering from fatigue. These pressure-filled September innings are taking its toll on Hudson and again, he’ll pitch on just three days rest here. Annibal Sanchez has filthy stuff. He’s still prone to periodic control issues but when he’s throwing strikes he’s as tough as they come. He’s laboring too in September but the big difference is that he’s not the one laying –1.85. Sanchez skills are equal to or better than Hudson’s and he’s 10 years his junior. Another overlay on a live squad playing the spoiler role. Play: Florida +1.72 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit –1½ +1.26 over CLEVELAND
Mitch Talbot is a pitcher in trouble. This is a guy that has had moderate success this season but don’t be fooled. The league has since figured him out and he’s not getting away with walking folks like he was earlier in the year. In fact, in seven of his last eight starts, he walked more batters than he struck out. Over that stretch of eight games he’s walked 22 and struck out 17. At home this year, Talbot has allowed 102 hits in 82 frames for a BAA of .307 and an ERA of 6.31. He’s made three starts vs the Tigers this season and all they’ve done is hit .310 off him and scored nine times in 15 IP. Incidentally, in those three starts vs the Tigers he walked 11 and struck out 9. In addition, the Detroit offense is clicking in September, leading the AL in scoring while averaging over six runs per contest. By contrast, the Indians offense has been held to three or less runs in 12 games already this month, while being shutout four times. Now they’ll have to face Max Scherzer and his ferocious desire to win. No pitcher in baseball has been better than Scherzer in the 2H. His 1.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP tells you all you need to know. This guy is the straight goods and chances are strong he’ll dominate this weak hitting foe. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
