October 1, 2010: Friday night MLB with analysis

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Five plays for tonight with quick analysis:

***Philly/Atl UNDER 8
A quick breakdown of the starting pitching in this game looks like this:
-Beachy: One start this year vs. Philly, pitching 4.1 innings and giving up 1 ER = 2.20 ERA. 2.89 ERA on 9 innings pitched for the year.
-Kendrick: Two quality starts this year vs. Atl, pitching 15 innings and giving up 1 ER = .60 ERA (8/0, 7/1).
Other mentionables: Atlanta hasn't been scoring much lately, plus they will be missing one of their best hitters, Prada. For Philly, Victorino is doubtful and Planco is questionable. It is also likely that Philly will have the "B" team in as they have clinched and possess home advantage throughout the playoffs.
Atl - under is 7-2-1 in last 10 games.
Phil - under is 6-3-1 in last 10 games.
Atl/Phil - season series under is 9-5-1
Philly likely to have a weak lineup, and Kendrick has good success vs. Atl this year should equal for a low scoring game.

***Atlanta Braves -1
The short of it: Atlanta is hot right now coming off a sweep of Fla and needs to win as they are still in the wild card race. As stated above, Philly is locked in the playoffs and will have home advantage throughout; therefore, they will likely keep most of their starters out of the game. Check the lineup prior to game start.
Lessen the juice by Braves -160 and -1.5 (+135) to make -1

***LAA/Texas UNDER 8
A quick breakdown of the starting pitching in this game looks like this:
-Weaver: 31.1 innings pitched this year vs. Texas, giving up 11 ER = 3.18 ERA. 35.2 innings pitched last 5 starts, giving up 10 ER = 2.56 ERA.
-Hunter: 6.1 innings pitched, giving up 3 ERs. 23.1 innings pitched in last 5 outtings, giving up 8 ER.
Overall: LAA under is 7-2-1 last 10 games. TX under is 6-4 last 10 games. The under is 10-4-2 out of 16 games between LAA and TX.
Both pitchers have been good as of late, and has pitched well against TX all year. Should be a low scoring game.

***Tampa Bay Rays -1
Shields is hit or miss, but I don't trust Chen either. KC got their win last night, and TB needs to win as they are racing NYY for first in division or wild card spot. Going with the better team who is in dire need of a win...will lessen the juice by taking TB -150 and -1.5 (+110)

***TOR/MINN OVER 8 (-120)
-Pavano: 7.41 ERA in his last 3 starts. Out of 10 innings pitched this year against Toronto, he has given up 12 ERs.
-Romero: 7.20 ERA in his last 3 starts. He hasn't faced Minn this year, but the Twins are healthy (besides Morneau) and should be able to produce on O - Thome is questionable.
Overall: The over is 7-3 in Minn's last 10 games. It is 6-4 in Tor's last 10 games. Tor and Minn have faced each other 6 times this year with the over going 5-0-1
Both struggling pitchers facing potent offenses - should be a high scoring game.

BOL tonight!

Hookem
 

aka...shdw03
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bol heh
 

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Thanks HiLife

Note: I just noticed Philly is starting their regular lineup, but I'm sticking with my plays. Manuel said he would play starters but maybe for a limited role through the weekend
 

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