MLB Postseason Preview..
After 162 games and 6 long, grueling months of baseball…
…it’s October once again!
We began with 30 and we’re now at the Elite 8 of Major League Baseball. As always there are some interesting series to look forward to in the NL and AL Division Series.
Giants vs. Braves
These teams couldn’t necessarily do what the Minnesota Twins could do and clinch early. These teams had to play out the entire 162 game schedule to earn their respective spots in the postseason. The big story as it relates to this series is Bobby Cox.
Bobby Cox is in his last year of managing. He may join a front office after this year. It goes without saying that his best managing days were in Atlanta during the 90’s and early 2000’s when they were winning division title after division title after division title. In Atlanta, the man is beloved. Since many around the country are Bobby Cox fans, the Braves are a very easy team to pull for this year. Atlanta could use this as a rallying motto for this October: “Let’s Win it for Bobby!”
Despite this, I’m still picking the San Francisco Giants to beat Atlanta in 5 games. For all of the Braves’ renewed success this year, it has not translated into stellar play on the road this year. The Bravos are 35-46 on away from Turner Field this year. I also will prefer Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez over Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, and Tommy Hanson.
One thing to watch will be that this series will feature two viable candidates for NL Rookie of the Year: Buster Posey and Jason Heyward. Heyward has played in more games this year but has an average of .277. Posey’s HR and RBI totals are almost the same as Heyward’s in much less games than Heyward has played. If I was voting, Posey would get my vote right now.
Phillies vs. Reds
Against anyone else, I’d probably pick Cincy. Joey Votto is my pick to win NL MVP. He, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips are stars on the rise. But, I’ve got a feeling that two words could determine this series and perhaps this entire postseason:
Cole. Hamels.
We right now are in an era of baseball where dominant starting pitching will determine if or if not a team wins or loses in October. Case in point with the Yankees last year as they beat those very Phils in last year‘s World Series. In 2008, Hamels was names the MVP of the Fall Classic. He was a superstar on the rise.
Then came 2009 and the bottom started to drop out. Hamels looked like he belonged in double A.
In 2010, Cole Hamels is 12-11 with a 3.06–a definite improvement from a 10-11 4.32 the year prior to ‘10. If we see the 08 version of Hamels + Roy Oswalt+ Roy Halladay, the Phils could be too tough for anyone to contend with.
As resurgent a story as the Reds are, I think it ends in the NLDS vs. the Phillies in 4 games.
Rays vs. Rangers
Texas will be helped plenty with Josh Hamilton’s return to the club. The Hamilton-led Rangers’ offense is giving new meaning to the phrase “Everything’s bigger in Texas”. They’re 1st in the Majors in batting average, 1st in hits, and 5th in runs.
I don’t think Hamilton, Vlad, Nelson Cruz, and the rest of the Rangers will have their collective “boomsticks” going vs. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff.
I know that the Rangers picked up Cliff Lee to boost their starting staff with C.J. Wilson and Tommy Hunter, but the Rangers have made it a habit to not give Lee much run support lately. Another bad habit they have is not playing good baseball on the road (see-Braves). They’re 39-42 on the road and Tropicana Field can be a difficult place to play for opponents, especially in the postseason. David Price and the Rays shouldn’t have to worry about low turnout for playoff games in Tampa. They’re 3rd in runs scored. Tampa over Texas in 5.
Yankees vs. Twins
You’re probably thinking, “Duh, New York! Minnesota NEVER beats the Bronx Bombers in postseason play!”. Well, you’d be right. Here’s where it’s a little different this time. The Yanks will be facing the Twins as a Wild Card participant. In other words, unlike past years, the Yanks won’t have a potential Game 5 at the Stadium. A Game 5 in this series would be at Target Field, the new stadium that the players and fans alike have fallen in love with.
This may change things a little bit. If a World Series is ever played at this stadium it would definitely raise concerns over snowfall in late October. But first things, first. The Twins have been struggling recently over the last week and a half since they clinched. This even with the Twins having a chance to clinch home field throughout the AL playoffs. Manager Ron Gardenhire announced that Justin Morneau will not be on the Twins’ postseason roster. Joe Mauer has also had his problems recently.
The Yankees struggles have been a month in the making. They’ve been playing .500 ball throughout the month of September. It’s that .500 ball that cost them the division and left them with only the Wild Card. Even with CC Sabathia who is once again a candidate for AL Cy Young (21-7 3.18), it’s not the same rotation that it was last year. A.J. Burnett has struggled, Pettitte has been hurt, and you’re not always sure about Phil Hughes despite his 18-8.
And mention the name “Javier Vazquez” to a Yankee fan is enough to make them want to punch you in the face.
Both teams are entering the postseason cold in cold conditions. In the end, history will prevail and the Yankees will beat the Twins in 4.
So my prospective Championship Series matchups would be Giants vs. Phillies and Yankees vs. Rays. Phillies will beat the Giants in 6 and Rays over Yankees in 7.
So that would lead us to a rematch of 2008 with the Rays and Phillies once again in the World Series. With Philadelphia right now the team to beat, I’m predicting the Phils to win their 2nd World Series in 3 years as they beat the Rays in 6 games. Note: this is a far cry from the beginning of the year when I predicted that the Yankees would beat the St. Louis Cardinals in 7 games. The Redbirds failed to make the postseason, of course.
And on a probably irrelevant side note:
In the past few years, it has become more common for pennant races to extend another day later. The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres played one more game to decide the National League Wild Card in 2007. That was the infamous “Matt Holliday ‘Did-he-or-did-he-not’ Touch the Plate” game. Colorado made it to the World Series but were swept by the Boston Red Sox.
The following year, the White Sox hooked up with the Twins in a 163’er that the South Siders won to advance to postseason play. They were bounced in the first round in 4 games to the Tampa Bay Rays who won the AL Championship that season.
Last year those same Twins were on the winning side of a 1-game tiebreaker by beating the Detroit Tigers in 12 innings. The Twins were the hottest team in baseball at the time, playing near .800 ball through the last 3 ½ weeks of the season.
No tiebreakers needed this year! Bring on October!
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