Yankees and Braves can't lose in respective game 2s

Willie99

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"undecided - listed" as never lost in the history of baseball

on a serious note, that be a good sign for either team. At least in the Yankees case, they have no idea what bum to put out there

 

billhill999

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Right now Yanks rotation is

Game 1: CC Sabathia
Game 2: Phil Hughes
Game 3: Andy Pettitte

I don't care how many TBA's or Undecided you read, I'd bet money that's the way it is.

 

Willie99

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what about Andy for game two?

pitch the kid at home

 

billhill999

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I'm hearing Hughes than Pettitte.

 

Jman20427

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Pretty sure its andy game 2 phil game three.

 

billhill999

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Nope, still Hughes.


http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/scoreboard?d=2010-10-07

 

buffettgambler

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Hughes will pitch game 3 (Pettite game 2), Sabathia game 4 (if needed). The Twins are going with a 4 man rotation (Liriano, Pavano, Duensing, Blackburn). Adjust series price valuations accordingly.

 

Akillies

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buffettgambler said:

Hughes will pitch game 3 (Pettite game 2), Sabathia game 4 (if needed). The Twins are going with a 4 man rotation (Liriano, Pavano, Duensing, Blackburn). Adjust series price valuations accordingly.

Click to expand...

i value it as a + for nyy, how do you see it?

 

buffettgambler

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Akillies said:

i value it as a + for nyy, how do you see it?

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I value it as a plus for the Yankees as well. Sabathia should have no problem pitching on short rest. I have a slightly higher aggregate valuation on Hughes compared to Pettite. But against the Twins lineup (Twins better suited against RHP) that disparity is wiped out and then some. I think the Yankees wanted to avoid having Hughes pitch at home (doesn't handle the pressure well), but the trade-off of getting to have Pettite pitch 2 and force the Twins into playing 4 games against LHP was worth it.

My Current Series valuation on the Yankees is
To win the series: -156
To win in 3 games: +512
To win in 4 games: +262
To win in 5 games: +488

If the Yankees elected to go with Burnett in game 4/Sabathia game 5, my valuation would be the following
To win the series: -147
To win in 3 games: +512
To win in 4 games: +321
To win in 5 games: +412

 

Akillies

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so even with that factored in the value lies with the twins +170

 

buffettgambler

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Akillies said:

so even with that factored in the value lies with the twins +170

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Yes, but not enough value to warrant a play on the series line. High valuation error on series (harder to value 5 games out) and correlation to potential individual games warrant a higher margin of safety to make a play. Also, based on the game 1 line, it looks like ALL the value on the series line is being extracted from the game 1 line. Replacing my line for game 1with the current market no-vig line of game one into the series valuation, and the Yankees series value jumps to -167.