NFL Betting: 70% Winning Trend on Bye Week Teams

SportSavant · Oct 5, 2010

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The first round of bye week teams have had a chance to regroup and this week Dallas, Kansas City and Minnesota will try to pick up where they left off before the break.

Dallas recorded its first win of the season and with the expectations that were placed on this team for 2010, the importance of that game against in-state rival Houston in Week 3 cannot be overstated.

Tennessee is in Dallas. The sportsbooks have the line currently set at -6.5 on the home team. Facing a Titans team whose defense is starting to show signs of regression, the opportunity for the Cowboys to get back to .500 on the season certainly exists.

Since realignment in 2002, teams that had the first byes of the season have performed exceptionally well the following week, covering the spread at better than 70-percent. Dallas has been forced to put added emphasis on home games against mid-tier opponents since the Cowboys have the third toughest overall schedule. If they can get their ground game going against the Titans it could be a good spot for a cover but buying early in the week might be the only chance to lay less than a TD.

Kansas City is at Indianapolis (Colts are -9) and though the Chiefs have seen a wide array of talent in the first three weeks before their bye, this is their most dangerous opponent yet. The Colts are come into this one off their second loss of the season and we saw what they did to Peyton’s poor brother in Week 2 after a loss.

Keep in mind that the Chiefs are 7-2 ATS as double-digit dogs the past four years and there is a strong chance that this line will hit 10 as the week progresses. Early action at online sportsbook Sportsbetting.com has 70% on the home side Colts so far.

Minnesota is in New York this week to take on the Jets (-4). Brett Favre is King of the Monday Night lights and the last seven times he has played with rest in the game of the week Favre is 7-0 ATS.

DON’T FORGET THE LITTLE ONE!
We didn’t want to leave Tampa Bay out of this equation for post-bye teams but they were the only one of the four that lost straight-up in Week 3 before their break. It wasn’t even close against Pittsburgh as Tampa was severely outmatched on both sides of the ball.

This week the Buccaneers are getting around a TD in Cincinnati (depending on the sportsbook) and while it is going to be difficult finding reasons to back a team off such a bad performance, keep this in mind:

Tampa Bay has proven record of 8-3-1 ATS following their bye week whenever the team lost its pre-bye game straight-up.

Add in that 70-percent angle on the first round of bye teams and all of a sudden the case for the underdog looks a little stronger!

You can check all the updated NFL Odds.

Have a good week.

NFL Betting: 70% Winning Trend on Bye Week Teams

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