CNOTES ALCS & NLCA All You Need To Know + My Best Bets !

MLB Playoff Odds: Rays, Rangers tangle

It’s not often Cliff Lee is an underdog. But he will be on Wednesday afternoon when the Texas Rangers meet the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of their playoff series at Tropicana Field.

The Rays, with David Price on the mound, are minus 120 at the MLB betting window with the ‘over/under’ at seven. Game time is 10:37 a.m. (PT) with TBS televising.

Lee was favored in all but one of his 15 starts with Texas this season. The 32-year-old southpaw is 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and the top WHIP in the American League at 1.00.

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The American League Cy Young Award winner two years ago when he was with Cleveland, Lee has a phenomenal 185-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season in 212 1/3 innings pitching for Texas and Seattle.

Lee is the only Texas starter with playoff experience. The Rangers haven’t been in the postseason since 1999, when they were eliminated in the first round by the New York Yankees.

The Rangers won the American League West Division by nine games with a 90-72 mark. Tampa Bay captured the American League East Division by one game over the Yankees compiling an AL-best 96-66 record.

Price is the Rays’ ace going 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The 25-year-old lefty led the AL in winning percentage and was No. 2 in wins and No. 3 in ERA.

Rays closer Rafael Soriano led the AL in saves with 45 in 48 chances.

Neither team was overly impressive finishing the regular season. The Rangers went 7-8 in their last 15 games.

Texas outfielder Josh Hamilton did lead the AL in batting hitting .359. He went 3-for-11 during the final three games of the regular-season after missing 24 games because of two broken ribs. Hamilton also hit 32 homers and drove in 100 runs.

Tampa Bay is just 2-5 in its last seven games, scoring only nine runs during this span.

The Rays, however, are 49-32 at home this season, including 21-12 versus AL West opponents. They swept all three regular-season home contests against the Rangers when the teams met in mid-August and are 36-20 versus left-handers.

The Rangers are 39-42 on the road and were 19-25 against AL East foes, although they’ve won their last five against them.

The Rangers are 28-23 against southpaws but have struggled at Tropicana Field, which is the only Major League park to feature an artificial surface and all-dirt base paths. It also has distracting video boards.

Texas has lost 17 of its last 22 games at Tropicana Field.

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The Rangers are 9-23 in their last 23 games on FieldTurf.
Lee is 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 career starts against the Rays, going 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA at Tropicana Field. Lee was magnificent in five playoff starts for the National League champion Philadelphia Phillies last year going 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA.

Lee and Price hooked up on Aug. 16 in Tampa with the Rays winning 6-4 as 110 favorites. It was the only time during the regular season Lee wasn’t a favorite when he pitched for Texas.

Price out-pitched Lee in that MLB matchup giving up two earned runs on five hits in six innings with eight strikeouts and five walks. Price didn’t factor in the decision, though. Lee allowed six earned runs in 7 2/3 innings, while fanning 10 and issuing one base on balls.

Tampa Bay has won its last four games against Texas with all of the contests going ‘over.’ The ‘under’ has cashed, however, in Tampa’s last eight games. The ‘under’ is 14-3-1 in the Rays’ last 18 home contests.

MLB Betting: Yankees, Twins begin ALDS

The New York Yankees look to shake off a rare late-season collapse when they open up their ALDS series at the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night.

Bookmaker.com has the Yankees as 137 road favorites with a total of seven-runs. They’re 180 ‘chalk’ to win the series.

New York (95-67) led Tampa Bay by 2 ½-games in the AL East on Sept. 4, but finished just 8-17 for the consolation wild-card. The Yankees lost any chance at the division with an 8-4 loss at Boston on Sunday.

Minnesota (94-68) clinched the Central Division on Sept. 21 after the White Sox faded down the stretch. The Twins had a chance at home field advantage throughout the AL Playoffs, but went 2-8 in their final 10 games.

The Yankees have owned their Midwest counterparts the past decade. They went 4-2 in the regular season this year and 45-16 since 2002. That doesn’t include ALDS wins in 2003 (3-1), 2004 (3-1) and 2009 (3-0). New York had home field advantage each time.

New York lost its last three playoff series as the wild-card (2007 and 1997 vs. Cleveland, 1995 vs. Seattle). Minnesota has lost its last four ALDS series, going 2-12 overall.

Injuries could play a big part this year. Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau (concussion) will miss this series after being out since July 7. Reliever Jon Rauch (knee) could be left off the ALDS roster. The team added closer Matt Capps and left reliever Brian Fuentes in the second half.

New York’s Andy Pettitte had made three starts since missing two months with a back injury. He pitched well in the first one against Baltimore, but struggled in the final two versus Boston (11.05 ERA).

CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) is the Game 1 starter for New York. He’s first in the AL in wins, second in innings pitched (237 2/3) and sixth in strikeouts (197). He’s the favorite for the AL Cy Young award.

The 30-year-old lefty powered the Yankees to a World Series title last year. He was 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in five playoff starts. Sabathia allowed one earned run over 6 2/3 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS against Minnesota. The Yanks won 7-2 at home.

Sabathia hasn’t faced the Twins this year. He made one start in Minnesota last year and surrendered one earned run over seven innings in a 10-2 win. This is his first start at new Target Field after going 9-5 (4.38 ERA) lifetime at the Metrodome.

Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA) is trying to cap a solid season that’s seen him fully healthy for the first time since 2006. He was 0-3 in his last three starts (8.10 ERA), although two games came after Minnesota had clinched. The MLB odds ‘over’ is 5-0 in his last five outings.

The 26-year-old lefty was 7-5 both home and away, but his ERA was much lower at home (3.11 vs. 4.25).

Liriano had two quality starts (3.46 ERA) in two tries against New York this year, but Minnesota lost both games. The home start was on May 26, allowing two earned runs over seven innings in a 3-2 loss.

Minnesota is 0-4 in Liriano’s last four starts against New York and 1-10 in his last 11 against the AL East.

First pitch on Wednesday is 5:37 p.m. (PT). Weather should be clear, starting in the 60s. That’s very fortunate weather for Minneapolis this time of year. This is the franchise’s first outdoor playoff game since 1970.

Former Yankee Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA) will get the start for Game 2 on Thursday night. Either Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) or Phil Hughes 918-8, 4.19 ERA) will go for the visitors.

MLB Odds: Phillies heavy chalk for playoffs

That the Philadelphia Phillies enter the 2010 MLB playoffs as the betting favorites is very low on the surprise meter. The Phillies have won the last two NL flags, earned their fourth consecutive NL East title and started the season around five- or six-to-one to win it all. The fact the Phillies are doing it with all they had going against them this season, that is a mild shock and a testament to talent, depth, management in the front office and in the dugout, and plain ol' luck.

Philadelphia hit the final day of play listed as plus 130 chalk at Bookmaker.com to win the Series. The Phils were prohibitive minus 185 faves to become the first team in 66 years to win three straight NL banners. (Complete World Series MLB futures odds appear at the end of this article.)

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

How much managers mean in the big league dugouts is always a debatable point; arguments on both sides have merit. Charlie Manuel's influence in Philadelphia seems beyond argument, however. He's been at the helm of MLB clubs for eight full MLB seasons now and won five division titles, one in Cleveland and the last four years in Philly.

Manuel's roster has been a revolving door with injuries among the position players key to that problem. Jayson Werth and Raul Ibañez are the only players he's had at his disposal the entire season. Ryan Howard missed a little time, but nothing compared to the middle-infield tandem of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Penciled in for 300 games between the pair, Rollins and Utley will combine for about 200 instead.

What steadied the course all season in Philadelphia was the pitching, specifically the good health among the starting rotation that was bolstered by a deadline deal.

Manuel has enjoyed reliable duty all season from Roy Halladay (22-11, 2.44), Cole Hamels (18-14, 3.09) and Kyle Kendrick (17-14, 4.73) who will each make more than 30 starts. Joe Blanton (17-11, 4.74) will finish with 28 starts, Jamie Moyer (9-10, 4.84) made 19 before going down with an injury and a midseason trade brought Roy Oswalt (10-2, 1.65) over from Houston for 12 more. Those six arms will wind up being used for 97 percent of the starting assignments.

Philadelphia came out of the gate in April on fire, winning seven of its first eight games and making MLB bettors following the team at the start very happy with 5.5 units of profit. But the Phillies ended the season's first month on a 5-9 run to turn those smiles upside down.

The club got back on track in May, winning 12 of the first 15 games to build a 5-game lead in the NL East on May 17. Again, struggles followed the positive burst and by June 12 the Phillies were just two games above even (32-30) and 3½-games back in the division behind the Braves and Mets.

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Philadelphia came out from the midseason vacation cold, dropping six of seven and falling seven behind Atlanta in the division, still in third place at 48-46. A 2-0, 11-inning win at St. Louis on July 22 as 150 underdogs ended their road trip and served as the turning point. Including that win, Philadelphia was on a 49-18 run entering Sunday's regular season finale.

The Phillies were up 10 units before game 162 at Turner Field. Bettors who followed the team's 'totals' all season had a slight edge if they were on the 'under' (85-73-3).

All signs pointed to the Braves taking the NL wild card when the weekend started. But that was before Atlanta dropped the first two of its series with the Phils and the Padres won the first two of their set in San Francisco.

Should Atlanta take the NL wild card, the Phillies will meet the Cincinnati Reds in the NLDS. Those two squads met twice in late-June and just before the All-Star break with Philadelphia winning five of the seven games played.

The Phillies swept all four games played at Citizens Bank Park in July after winning one of three in Cincy. The 'under' was the winner in four of the seven matchups.

If the Braves and Padres both win on the final day, it will set up a three-way, sudden-death playoff between Atlanta, San Diego and San Francisco beginning Monday. The Pads and Giants would meet that day in San Diego to decide the NL West, with the loser traveling to Atlanta for a Tuesday match with the Braves to decide the NL wild card.


TEAM WS ODDS
Phillies +130
Yankees +290
Rays +470
Rangers +475
Reds +1000
Twins +1150
Giants +1200
Braves +1325
Padres +1850

MLB Playoffs Set

The American League Divisional playoffs are set with the four seeds figured out. Tampa Bay owns home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs as the Rays host the AL West champion Rangers. The Yankees, despite a 95-67 record, are the Wild Card champs and will start on the road at Minnesota.

The Rays grabbed four of six regular season meetings from the Rangers, including a three-game sweep at Tropicana Field in mid-August. All three games in St. Pete finished 'over' the total, as the opening contest of that series featured Cliff Lee and David Price on the mound. Tampa Bay went on to win that game, 6-4, as the two southpaw aces are set to start Game 1 of the ALDS at the Trop.

The Yankees and Twins are no strangers to each other in the postseason, as New York swept Minnesota last season in the ALDS. The Bombers closed out the Metrodome with a 4-1 victory in the series clincher, as Target Field will host its first playoff game on Wednesday. Cy Young frontrunner CC Sabathia takes his 21 wins into the series opener against Francisco Liriano, who has dropped three straight decisions. New York captured four of six meetings from Minnesota, including a 2-1 mark at Target Field.

Over in the National League, San Francisco avoided a disastrous situation for Major League Baseball with its victory over San Diego. The Giants wrapped up the NL West title, while Atlanta held on for the Wild Card, as both teams won't have to participate in a play-in game to break any tiebreakers. Instead, the Giants and Braves will meet in the NLDS that begins at AT&T Park on Thursday.

Tim Lincecum received extra rest as the two-time Cy Young Award winner was slated to pitch in Sunday's clincher, but Jonathan Sanchez made the start. Lincecum makes his postseason debut opposite Derek Lowe in Thursday's opener, the first playoff appearance for the Giants since 2003. Atlanta won four of seven meetings against San Francisco this season, as the Giants won two of three at home.

The Phillies will have home-field advantage throughout the World Series as long as they stay alive, seeking their third straight appearance in the Fall Classic. The first hurdle for Philadelphia is the NL Central champion Cincinnati. The Reds are in the postseason for the first time in 15 seasons, as Edinson Volquez takes the ball in the NLDS opener. The Phillies counter with Roy Halladay in Wednesday's Game 1, who makes his first appearance in the playoffs in his illustrious career. Philadelphia finished with a 5-2 mark against Cincinnati this season, including a four-game sweep of the Reds at Citizens Bank Park.

Lookin' at the Playoffs

American League

Whereas the New York Yankees clearly loomed as the team to beat at this time a year ago, that doesn’t appear to be the case this season. Although we remain wary of the Bronx Bombers, some of the cracks that appeared in the foundation over the past few weeks, resulting in Joe Girardi’s crew gifting the AL East to the Rays, could continue to haunt the Yanks in October.
Still, what might be the most important factor in the AL postseason equation is the ability of teams to control the Yankees’ left-handed power. Both the Minnesota Twins and the Texas Rangers have two quality southpaws who can neutralize Mark Teixeira and the Yanks’ top-heavy lefty lineup, which means they probably have better chances to defeat the Bombers than they have had in their previous playoff frustrations against the New Yorkers, going back to Texas in the mid ‘90s, and numerous Minnesota postseason failures vs. the New Yorkers over the past decade (2003, ‘04, and ‘09). The Twins get the first crack at the Yanks in the ALDS.

And some longtime observers believe Minnesota is prepared for a breakthrough vs. the pinstripers, much as the Kansas City Royals, after three gut-wrenching ALCS losses to the Billy Martin-Bob Lemon Yankees in 1976-77-78, bounced back to sweep the Bronx Bombers in 1980. New York’s current vulnerability appears to be with its starting pitching; once past CC Sabathia, can Girardi really count upon the sliding Philip Hughes, or expect to squeeze more playoff innings out of the aging Andy Pettite? A.J. Burnett (1-5 with a 7.09 ERA since August 20) doesn’t seem to be a viable option at the moment. And New York, just 29-30 since August 1, is not riding much of an updraft into the postseason.

The Twins might finally have the balance necessary to beat the Yankee power and depth, because they run the bases well, have become far more patient at the plate, play the usual superb defense, and can deploy lefties Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing. Although Minnesota did not play well after clinching the AL Central (just 2-8), at least no one else was injured down the stretch; 1B Justin Morneau, out since early July with post-concussion syndrome, looks to be the only missing piece for the playoff roster. The Twins’ problem is short relief, especially if Jon Rauch’s balky knee continues acting up; Matt Capps is not someone you want facing Yankee power in the Bronx with a one-run lead.

The Rangers, with their southpaw aces Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson, might also like their chances in a short series vs. the Yankees, but they first must overcome the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. Like the Yankees, Texas was also not exactly flying down the stretch, and is crossing its fingers that recent casualties Josh Hamilton (returned last weekend from rib injury) and David Murphy (groin) will be ready to contribute. Although Hamilton, Murphy, Michael Young, and inspired DH pickup Vlad Guerrero posted impressive numbers this season, the lineup has a tendency to chase pitches, which can often haunt in the postseason. And other than Lee and set-up man Darren Oliver (who may or may not be on the postseason roster), no one on the staff has any playoff experience.

Tampa Bay might be built for a postseason run similar to its World Series appearance two years ago, thanks in part to a bullpen that was much more reliable than past seasons due to the presence of ex-Brave closer Rafael Soriano and a stable of effective set-up artists. As usual, base running and defense featuring the electric Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria (both on their way to Cooperstown?) might have to compensate for human wind machines such as 1B Carlos Pena and OF B.J. Upton, who struck out more than 300 times between them. Still, the Rays are healthy and confident, and something tells us this dynamic bunch is going to be the team to beat in the AL.

National League

Unlike the AL, where the Yankees appear vulnerable, the Philadelphia Phillies enter the NL half of the playoffs as the clear team to beat as they look for a third straight pennant. Yet there is a team in the senior circuit that neither the Phils, their NLDS foe Cincinnati Reds, nor the wild card Atlanta Braves (who don’t have much choice) particularly want to see in October.

Indeed, the San Francisco Giants appear to be a potentially scary foe in a short series. As long, that is, as their sterling starting pitching produces as it has over the past month. With starters Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain back in a nice groove down the stretch, Jonathan Sanchez spinning an ERA of around 1.00 in September, and young Madison Bumgarner continuing to impress, Bruce Bochy might not even need risking Barry Zito in the postseason rotation. With an NL-best 3.41 ERA, and a deep bullpen that can bridge to dominating closer Brian Wilson, the Giants can pitch their way to their first World Series since 2002. Meanwhile, the consistent stick of 1B Aubrey Huff in the middle of the batting order, the explosive debut of rookie phenom C Buster Posey, plus veteran additions such as 2B Freddy Sanchez and OFs Pat Burrell and Cody Ross, have given the Giants a more functional lineup than in the recent past. Other NL contenders have been forewarned.

Of course, the Phils are going to believe they can match the Giants at the top of the rotation, with trade-deadline acquisition Roy Oswalt joining Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels as the only starting trio each with sub-3.10 ERAs. And a potential weak link, closer Brad Lidge, has settled down since early August, converting his last 10 save opportunities. Once healthy, the Phils (who missed Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins for big portions of the season) roared down the stretch to run away with the NL East flag. It’s going to take a team with pitching like the Giants to slow them down.

We’re not sure it can be the Reds, who get the first crack at the Phils in the NLDS after losing 5 of 7 vs. Philly in the regular season. Skipper Dusty Baker has already announced that he’ll be using an all-righty rotation (Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto) in the first round. Arroyo is the only one of that trio with postseason experience, and Baker will hope that putting the wily Arroyo between the harder-throwing Volquez and Cueto will keep opponents off balance. But many suspect the Reds were built better for the long haul, with a solid infield defense featuring 9 Gold Gloves and anchored by 3B Scott Rolen, and a ground-covering group of outfielders, than a short series during which the staff, without much postseason experience and still with some questions in the bullpen (closer Coco Cordero blew 8 saves this year), might prove their undoing. Baker will surely need a big October from 1B Joey Votto, who might be up to it after posting MVP-type numbers (37 HR, 112 RBI, .323 BA).

It would be a nice story if the Braves, in manager Bobby Cox’s farewell, can make a deep run, but indifferent form over the past two months suggests that is unlikely. Most of Cox’s likely starting pitching options (Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens) performed better earlier in the year than down the stretch. And with Chipper Jones injured, the Braves often went into extended funks at the plate, with midseason pickup Derrek Lee and rookie RF Jason Heyward eventually forced to carry the run-producing burden.

Neither the Braves nor the Reds appear to be the NL team to KO the Phils. The Giants, however, might have what it takes.

MLB Odds: NLDS betting trends and angles

The Philadelphia Phillies are minus 270 MLB odds favorites in their best-of-five National League Division Series against the Cincinnati Reds for several good reasons. There aren’t as many quality explanations for the San Francisco Giants opening as slim 155 favorites in their NLDS with the wild-card Atlanta Braves.

Betting trends and angles for both series appear below.

Philadelphia Phillies versus Cincinnati Reds

The Phillies captured five of the seven regular-season games against the Reds, including a four-game sweep at Philadelphia from July 8-11. The last two games of that series saw the Phils register back-to-back 1-0 shutout victories. That helped the ‘under’ cash in four of the last five series matchups.

Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay were on the hill for the Phils in those back-to-back whitewashes.

The Reds took two of three from the Phils during a three-game series in Cincinnati during the last week of June. Aaron Harang, who will be pitching out of the bullpen in the playoffs, got the better of Halladay in the finale of that series as a 142 home underdog, 4-3.

The Reds closed as MLB betting underdogs four times during the seven-game regular season series.

Philadelphia is 52-29 at home and 45-36 on the road, with the ‘under’ going 85-74-3 overall. The club is 12-3 in its last 15 home playoff games and a remarkable 49-19 in its last 68 overall outings.

The Phillies finished the season strong, going a major league-best 21-6 in September. Some of the success was due to a pitching staff that allowed three runs or less 12 times. However, most of the victories during that 27-game stretch can be attributed to a Philadelphia offense that averaged 5.6 runs per game.

The strong finish enabled the Phils to garner home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and choose an eight-day format for their NLDS match. That eight-day schedule works to the Phils’ advantage because it allows them to go with a menacing three-man rotation of Halladay, Hamels and Roy Oswalt without having any of the hurlers pitch on short rest.

The Reds are 4-10 in their last 14 road encounters, which lowered their overall road mark to a respectable 42-39. They are also 3-7 in their last 10 games as an underdog.

Nevertheless, the Reds lead the National League in batting average (.271), home runs (187) and runs per game (4.9). Joey Votto ended the regular campaign hitting .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBIs. Votto is hitting .393 against the Phillies in 28 at-bats. Additionally, the Reds are hitting an NL-best .278 with runners in scoring position.

San Francisco Giants versus Atlanta Braves

The San Francisco Giants are 155 MLB odds favorites against the Braves despite dropping four of the seven regular season meetings and hitting just .197 against Atlanta pitching.

The Braves captured three of four games in the most recent series during the first week in August. Atlanta recorded victories of 3-2, 3-0 and 6-3, while the Giants registered a 3-2 extra inning win in the second game of that series to avoid getting swept. Three of those four games dipped ‘under’ the closing total.

San Francisco took two contests of a three-game series in April at AT&T Park. The club sneaked out a 5-4 extra inning victory in the opener, and then captured the finale 6-3. The Braves came out on top in the middle game, 7-2. The ‘over’ cashed twice, with one ‘push.’

The Braves closed as a favorite in five of the seven series matches.

Hitting might be a problem for both teams. The Braves will be playing without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, two batters who had hit third in the lineup during the course of the season and who suffered season-ending injuries.

The Giants must hope Buster Posey finds his hitting stroke. The rookie catcher finished the campaign in a 6-for-42 (.143) hitting funk.

Atlanta had the best home record in baseball at 56-25, but was just 35-46 on the road. Bobby Cox’s troops are 63-44 against right-handed starters, but just 28-27 versus southpaws. The Braves are 8-7 in extra inning games and 23-22 in one-run affairs. They own a plus-109 run differential by outscoring the opposition, 738-629.

San Francisco is 49-32 at home, 43-38 on the road, 68-50 against right-handed starters and 24-20 versus southpaws. The Giants are 11-8 in extra innings and 28-24 in one-run contests.

The Giants’ 583 runs allowed is the second fewest in baseball, which helped them register a plus-104 run differential (697-583).

MLB
Dunkel


Texas at Tampa Bay
The Rangers look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 2-7 in its last 9 games following an off day. Texas is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.071; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.659
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-205); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-205); Over

Game 953-954: Texas at Tampa Bay (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lee) 16.439; Tampa Bay (Price) 14.872
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+110); Under

Game 955-956: NY Yankees at Minnesota (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.769; Minnesota (Liriano) 16.830
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Over




MLB
Long Sheet


Wednesday, October 6

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CINCINNATI (91 - 71) at PHILADELPHIA (97 - 65) - 5:05 PM
EDINSON VOLQUEZ (R) vs. ROY HALLADAY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 98-64 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 98-64 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 74-41 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 70-44 (+15.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-9 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 52-32 (+16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 32-9 (+23.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CINCINNATI is 92-71 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 42-39 (+6.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CINCINNATI is 92-71 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CINCINNATI is 62-45 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CINCINNATI is 58-49 (+6.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CINCINNATI is 27-17 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
VOLQUEZ is 35-18 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOLQUEZ is 20-6 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOLQUEZ is 35-17 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOLQUEZ is 16-6 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOLQUEZ is 17-6 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-2 (+2.7 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.7 Units)

EDINSON VOLQUEZ vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
VOLQUEZ is 2-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 0.73 and a WHIP of 0.892.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.1 units)

ROY HALLADAY vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
HALLADAY is 1-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.13 and a WHIP of 1.326.
His team's record is 2-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

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TEXAS (90 - 72) at TAMPA BAY (96 - 66) - 1:35 PM
CLIFF LEE (L) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 19-25 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
TEXAS is 12-23 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TAMPA BAY is 163-88 (+30.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 162-88 (+29.2 Units) against the money line in home games in games played in a dome over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 162-88 (+29.2 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on artificial turf over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 36-19 (+10.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 89-44 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 20-6 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PRICE is 23-8 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
PRICE is 15-3 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 17-11 (+7.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
TEXAS is 31-17 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
LEE is 12-3 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-2 (+1.6 Units) against TEXAS this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.8 Units)

CLIFF LEE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
LEE is 6-5 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.017.
His team's record is 6-7 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-5. (+1.5 units)

DAVID PRICE vs. TEXAS since 1997
PRICE is 0-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 7.45 and a WHIP of 1.655.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.5 units)

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NY YANKEES (95 - 67) at MINNESOTA (94 - 68) - 8:35 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. FRANCISCO LIRIANO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 96-67 (-4.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 59-45 (-7.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
NY YANKEES are 39-41 (-15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY YANKEES are 21-26 (-11.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
MINNESOTA is 94-68 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 53-28 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MINNESOTA is 90-63 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MINNESOTA is 62-45 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 54-26 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 40-28 (+9.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
MINNESOTA is 71-40 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 22-6 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 4-2 (+1.8 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
SABATHIA is 14-8 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.99 and a WHIP of 1.225.
His team's record is 17-12 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 18-10. (+6.3 units)

FRANCISCO LIRIANO vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
LIRIANO is 0-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.562.
His team's record is 0-4 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)

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Thursday, October 7

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ATLANTA (91 - 71) at SAN FRANCISCO (92 - 70) - 9:35 PM
DEREK LOWE (R) vs. TIM LINCECUM (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 35-46 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 1-6 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 35-46 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 92-71 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 101-61 (+23.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 91-69 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 63-45 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 68-51 (+12.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 22-10 (+12.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 64-44 (+7.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-3 (+0.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

DEREK LOWE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LOWE is 7-5 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.02 and a WHIP of 1.303.
His team's record is 9-8 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-6. (+1.3 units)

TIM LINCECUM vs. ATLANTA since 1997
LINCECUM is 6-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.151.
His team's record is 6-2 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)

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MLB
Short Sheet


Wednesday, 10/6/2010

** NL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1
CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA, 5:05 PM ET TBS
VOLQUEZ: 7-1 TSR as an underdog
HALLADAY: PHI 13-3 Under off one run loss

** AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1
TEXAS at TAMPA BAY, 1:35 PM ET TBS
LEE: TEX 0-3 at Tampa Bay
PRICE: 11-1 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175

** AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1
NY YANKEES at MINNESOTA, 8:35 PM ET TBS
SABATHIA: NYY 20-6 vs. Minnesota
LIRIANO: 12-4 Over 2nd half of season


Thursday, 10/7/2010

** NL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1
ATLANTA at SAN FRANCISCO, 9:35 PM ET TBS
LOWE: ATL 34-13 Under off 3+ division games
LINCECUM: SF 7-2 at home vs. Atlanta

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

ALDS preview and pick: Rangers vs. Rays

It’s must-see television when Cliff Lee and David Price square off on Wednesday afternoon.

SERIES ODDS: Tampa Bay Rays (-139) vs. Texas Rangers (+128)

PITCHING

Wednesday’s tilt between Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18) and David Price (19-6, 2.72) represents the best series-opening pitching matchup of the first round. Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five postseason starts last year, but is 0-3 against the Rays this season. Price is 9-2 with a 1.96 ERA at Tropicana Field in 2010.

The Rangers will start C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis in games two and three respectively, while the Rays will counter with Matt Garza and Wade Davis. It’s been a long season for Davis, but he has pitched well down the stretch. In his last five appearances, the 25-year-old right-hander has allowed just eight runs in 28 2-3 innings of work.

Both teams are strong in the bullpen. Rays relievers led the American League with a 3.33 ERA, while the Rangers were second at 3.38. Rafael Soriano has been brilliant at the back of the Rays’ bullpen, recording a league-leading 45 saves in 48 chances. Neftali Feliz has been almost as good for Texas, saving 40 games in 43 tries.Feliz hasn’t allowed a run in his last 16 appearances, a stretch over which he’s surrendered only six hits.

It’s a close call, but we think Lee’s recent postseason success gives them the advantage.

Slight Edge: Rangers

OFFENSE

Speed is the name of the game for the Rays, who rank third in the majors in runs scored despite being last in the American League in batting average (.247). In Carl Crawford and BJ Upton, Tampa Bay has two of the league’s most dangerous threats on the base paths. By themselves, Crawford and Upton combined for more steals (89) than twelve major league teams. With his contract expiring at the end of the season, Carl Crawford could earn himself a boatload of money if his performance in the playoffs is as good as it was in the regular season.

The Rays hope that Evan Longoria’s health isn’t an issue when the playoffs get underway. Longoria hasn’t played since Sept. 23 because of a strained quad. Manager Joe Maddon says that Longoria’s absence was precautionary, but the situation bears watching. Longoria will be in the lineup Wednesday night, but the Rays will really miss his pop if he is limited.

The Rangers have injury worries of their own. AL batting champion Josh Hamilton missed most of September with two broken ribs. Hamilton played in all three games of last weekend’s series against Anaheim. He collected three hits, including his 32nd home run of the season, but admitted feeling some tightness and soreness. Hamilton means as much to the Rangers as Longoria does to the Rays, if not more. If Hamilton’s sore ribs diminish his power at the plate, the Rangers are in trouble.

Vladimir Guerrero was essentially left on the scrap heap in the offseason when Texas signed him to a modest one-year deal with a mutual option for 2011. Guerrero has responded with a huge season, batting .300 with 29 homers and 115 RBI.

Texas excels at putting the ball in play. The Rangers are batting a major league-leading .276 and have the fourth-fewest strikeouts in baseball (986).

We respect Texas’ efficiency up and down the lineup, but Tampa Bay’s speed at the top of its lineup is lethal, especially late in close games, which this series figures to have plenty of.

Slight Edge: Rays

INTANGIBLES

The Rays have more playoff experience, and home field advantage is key considering the Rangers are three games below .500 on the road. Tampa Bay has an advantage in the late innings because of its ability to manufacture runs and its strong bullpen. We think the Rays capitalize on that and win a close series.

Pick: Rays in five games.

ALDS preview and pick: Yankees vs. Twins

The Yankees lead the majors in runs scored, but will shaky starting pitching derail their hopes of a repeat?

SERIES ODDS: New York Yankees (-184) vs. Minnesota Twins (+169)

PITCHING

It’s a safe bet that the Yankees will send C.C. Sabathia to the mound in Wednesday’s series opener. Outside of that, nobody knows exactly what Joe Girardi’s postseason rotation will look like. We suspect it will be a three-man rotation featuring Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes, in that order. If so, that’s a dangerous proposition for the defending champs.

After spending two months on the disabled list with a strained groin, Pettitte returned to go 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts down the stretch. He beat the Twins in last year’s ALDS and has a long history of postseason success, but has not looked like himself lately.

The Twins will go with a four-man rotation, headlined by Game 1 starter Francisco Liriano. Liriano has had a big season for Minnesota but is just 1-3 with a 6.98 ERA in his last four starts. He will be followed by Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, and if a Game 4 is necessary, Nick Blackburn. You can bet Pavano’s reception at Yankee Stadium for Game 2 will be less than friendly. The man dubbed “American Idle” by the New York tabloids made just 26 starts in a four-year stint as a Yankee from 2005-2008.

The incomparable Mariano Rivera gives the Yankees a slight edge in the bullpen. Rivera has blown three saves in his last seven chances, but when the money’s on the line, we still trust him more than any closer in baseball.

The bottom line is that the lack of reliable depth in New York’s rotation should have Yankee backers more than a little nervous.

Edge: Twins

OFFENSE

The Twins’ title hopes took a blow on Monday when they announced that Justin Morneau would not return for the playoffs. Morneau, who has been out since early July with a concussion, had hoped to return in time for a potential ALCS matchup.

While we’d never suggest Minnesota is better off without Morneau, his teammates deserve credit for stepping up in his absence. The Twins averaged 4.7 runs per game with Morneau, but are scoring 5.0 runs per game since his injury. Since the All-Star break, Joe Mauer is batting a torrid .373 and Jim Thome is hitting .313 with 15 homers. Delmon Young’s 54 second-half RBIs are the third-most in the American League.

For the second straight season, the Yankees led the majors in runs per game (5.3). Their lineup is as devastating as it is deep, especially now that Alex Rodriguez has hit his stride. Since Sept. 1, A-Rod is batting .309 and leads the team with 26 RBIs.

This has been a breakout year for Robinson Cano. Cano is hitting .319 on the season and has piled up 29 homers and 109 RBIs, both career highs. He is batting a team-best .322 with runners in scoring position and has played Gold-Glove caliber defense at second base. We think this is the year that Cano, a lifetime .217 postseason hitter, makes his mark in October.

Edge: Yankees

INTANGIBLES

Make no mistake: the aura of the pinstripes can be intimidating. Gardenhire’s teams have played fundamentally sound baseball over the years, but they looked unfocused while being swept by the Yankees last October. In fact, the Yankees are 54-18 against Gardenhire’s Twins since 2002, a disparity we can’t overlook.

Minnesota had a better September than New York, but that doesn’t outweigh the Yankees’ postseason experience.

Edge: Yankees

Pick: Yankees in five games.

NLDS preview and pick: Phillies vs. Reds

The Reds have been a feel-good story this season but will their no-name rotation cost them against the two-time defending National League champs and World Series favorites Phillies?

SERIES ODDS: Philadelphia Phillies (-270) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+245)

PITCHING

The Phillies did themselves a huge favor by putting up the National League’s best record. Not only will Philadelphia have home field throughout the playoffs, but its status as the top seed allowed the club to choose an eight-day schedule for its NLDS matchup. That means the Phillies can go with an intimidating three-man rotation of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels without having any of them pitch on short rest.

The Reds will go with Edinson Volquez in Game 1 followed by Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto. Volquez missed the first half of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and struggled on his return but has looked much better lately. He’s allowed just six runs over 27 2-3 innings while racking up 31 strikeouts over his last four starts.

The Reds and Phillies have both been very average in relief, but we give Philadelphia a slight edge because its group is fresher. Philadelphia relievers pitched an MLB-low 415 innings this season – a testament to the ability of its starters to work deep into games.

Brad Lidge has been nearly unhittable in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Lidge has converted 21 of 23 save opportunities while holding opposing hitters to a .157 average.

Edge: Phillies

OFFENSE

Cincinnati’s lineup is one of the most potent in the National League in 2010. They lead the league in a host of offensive categories including batting average (.271), home runs (187) and runs per game (4.9). Joey Votto has had an MVP-caliber season batting .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBIs. Votto is hitting .393 against the Phillies in 28 at-bats. The Reds are batting an NL-best .278 with runners in scoring position.

The Phillies’ lineup is smoking hot, averaging 5.6 runs per game since the start of September. Over that same stretch, the Reds have averaged just 4.2 runs per game.

Jayson Werth had a big September belting eight homers and piling up 20 RBIs. Werth is Philadelphia’s most dangerous batter against righties, hitting a team-high 20 home runs off right-handed pitching. With Cincinnati using three right-handed starters to begin the series and Werth playing for a new contract, we think this could be his time to shine.

The Reds have had the more productive lineup over the course of the season, but you can’t ignore the fact that the Phillies are red hot at the right time and their lineup is full of players who’ve come up with big hits in October.

Slight Edge: Phillies

INTANGIBLES

The gritty, battle-tested Phillies have ample playoff experience while many of the Reds’ key players are playing in their first ever postseason. To make matters worse for Cincinnati, the Phillies have all the momentum. At 21-6, Philadelphia had the best record in baseball in September. The Reds have good talent, and we think there’s postseason success in Cincinnati’s future – but not this year.

Pick: Phillies in three games

Tuesday's List of 13: Things I (re)learned this baseball season.

13) Pitching and defense keeps you in games; offense wins games. Don’t believe me? Ask the Padres and A’s, who stayed home for the playoffs despite quality pitching and defense. Why? They couldn’t hit.

12) TGFC, that’s the motto in Flushing. Thank God for the Clippers, or else the Mets would be the worst-run sports franchise in America. How does a team with this kind of payroll have this bad a team? They fired the GM and manager Monday, but sadly for their fans, the real problem (owner Jeff Wilpon) remains.

11) Tampa Bay Rays are where the A’s were nine years ago, when they had Giambi-Tejada-Chavez at their juiced-up best, and came damn close to sweeping the Bronx Bombers in the playoffs. They let it slip away, and haven’t been the same since. Rays are in the same boat now; they’re going to get crushed by free agency, so they better win this year.

10) Felix Hernandez didn’t get a decision in nine starts this year; Seattle scored total of 15 runs in those nine games.

9) Seattle was a fashionable choice to make the playoffs in March; instead, they lost 101 games, and had scouts saying their position players are way worse than what the doormat Pirates put on the field. That not good.

8) Of the 30 Opening Day managers in 2010, at least 13 of them won’t be in the same job on Opening Day 2011.

7) Of all the current active pitchers, Ryan Dempster (32) and Barry Zito (23) have walked the most batters with the bases loaded.

6) Reds making the playoffs will increase pressure on other midsize-market teams to get there, and soon. “If they can do it, why can’t we?”

5) Runs per game in major league: 2000: 10.26 2005: 9.18 2009: 9.25 2010: 8.75. Going to be hard to get rid of the DH at this pace.

4) Speaking of 2000, that year, the Phillies scored 708 runs, 23 less than any other major league team. 10 years later, Phillies are trying to become first NL team since WWII to get to the World Series three years in a row.

3) Twins’ Michael Cuddyer came to bat with 501 men on base this year, and knocked in 13.6% of them; Casey McGehee was next (492, 16.5%), then Mark Teixeira (486, 15.4%) and Matt Holliday (484, 15.5%). This was Holliday’s lowest percentage of his career; I’m sure if you asked him, he’d admit he didn’t have that great a season, yet he wound up as a .312 hitter with 28 HRs and 103 RBI. Go figure.

2) Carlos Gonzalez knocked in 22.1% of baserunners, top %age in big leagues; Alex Rodriguez was next (21.6%), followed by rookie Pedro Alvarez (20.1%) and Delmon Young (20%), the only four guys with 250+ AB to knock in 20% of runners on base in their AB’s.

1) The big winner financially this winter figures to be Carl Crawford and his agent; Red Sox/Angels said to be frontrunners for his services, but don’t rule the Astros. Crawford grew up in Houston, and that’s a super hitters’ ballpark. Plus they already have a good leadoff hitter (Michael Bourn). Crawford prefers batting second to leadoff.

MLB


Wednesday, October 6

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Trend Report
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1:37 PM
TEXAS vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Texas's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home

5:07 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Cincinnati is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

8:37 PM
NY YANKEES vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games on the road
NY Yankees are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home

NLDS preview and pick: Braves vs. Giants

Can Bobby Cox take another step towards his second championship or will San Francisco’s starting pitching put them over the top?

SERIES ODDS: San Francisco Giants (-160) vs. Atlanta Braves (+147)

OFFENSE

Atlanta ranks fifth in the National League in runs per game (4.6) and leads the league in doubles and on-base percentage.

The Braves caught a bad break last week when they learned Martin Prado would miss the remainder of the season with a hip pointer and a torn oblique. Prado was batting .307 with 15 long balls for Atlanta, which ranks 11th in homers in the NL.

Jason Heyward and Brian McCann have been the two main power sources for the Braves, combining for 39 of Atlanta’s 139 home runs. Heyward, a favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year, has made a big splash in his first big league season, belting 18 homers and leading the Braves with an .849 OPS.

Not to be outdone, the Giants have a phenom of their own in Buster Posey. Posey has piled up 67 RBI in just 406 at-bats and is Heyward’s main competition for the Rookie of the Year award.

General Manager Brian Sabean made one of the shrewdest signings of the offseason when he inked Aubrey Huff to one-year deal worth $3 million. Huff leads the Giants in homers (26), RBI (86), on-base percentage (.385) and slugging percentage (.506).

The Braves will miss Prado, but are still better with the bats. The Giants rank ninth in the National League in runs scored and are batting just .197 in seven games against the Braves this season.

Edge: Braves

PITCHING

If the Giants make a World Series push, it will be their starting pitching depth that gets them there. San Francisco will go with an impressive four-man rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and rookie Madison Bumgarner. The Giants’ staff led the majors with a 3.36 ERA and was lights out down the stretch, posting an almost-unfathomable 1.78 ERA in the month of September.

Atlanta will send Derek Lowe to the mound in Game 1, followed by Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. Hudson (17-9, 2.83) had a solid season for the Braves but pitched poorly over his last seven starts, going 2-4 and allowing four or more runs on five occasions. The series may hinge on Hudson’s ability to bounce back from his lackluster finish.

Both the Giants (2.99) and Braves (3.11) finished in the top three in baseball in bullpen ERA. Brian Wilson has been a bulldog at the back of San Francisco’s pen, leading the majors with a career-high 48 saves. Billy Wagner blew seven saves this season for the Braves, but was strong down the stretch. The run Wagner gave up in Atlanta’s regular-season finale was the first he had allowed since August 11. Wagner’s 1.43 ERA was the third-lowest in baseball among qualified relievers.

The Braves’ staff is formidable but the Giants have as much rotational depth as any team in baseball. They get the nod.

Edge: Giants

INTANGIBLES

Both teams waited until the final day of the regular season to lock up a playoff berth, but the Giants played better baseball down the stretch. Since September 1, San Francisco is 19-10 while the Braves are just 14-16.

The Braves won four of seven meetings between the teams in 2010, averaging four runs per game to the Giants’ three.

Atlanta has rallied around Bobby Cox and wants desperately to send the legendary skipper out a winner. We think that extra bit of motivation, along with the offensive shortcomings of the Giants, is enough to get the Braves through to the next round.

Edge: Braves

Pick: Braves in five games.

MLB PLAYOFFS:

Wednesday, October 6Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 1:37 PM ET Tampa Bay -128 500 *****
Tampa Bay - Over 7 500 *****

Cincinnati - 5:07 PM ET Cincinnati +187 500 *****
Philadelphia - Over 7 500 *****

NY Yankees - 8:37 PM ET Minnesota +137 500 *****
Minnesota - Over 7.5 500 *****



Good Luck !

Phillies heavy favorites in Game 1 with Halladay

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CINCINNATI REDS (91-71)
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (97-65)

NLDS Game 1 – Wednesday, 5:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -205, Cincinnati +187 Total: 7

Hoping to pull off a big Game 1 upset, Cincinnati turns to Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31 ERA) in the series opener. The Reds, making their first playoff appearance since 1995, have had little success in Philadelphia lately, losing all four games played at Citizens Bank Park this year and are just 2-10 in Philly over the past three seasons. Volquez has been effective recently, going 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA over his past three starts. He has struggled mightily on the road this year, racking up an ERA of 6.08 and a 1.86 WHIP in five starts away from home. He’s faced the Phillies twice in his career, both starts coming in 2008. Volquez went 2-0 in those games with an ERA of 0.73 (12.1 IP, 1 ER).

Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA) will get the nod for the Phillies. Halladay is a perfect 3-0 in his last three starts, which includes a complete-game, two-hit shutout of Washington in his final regular-season appearance. He also threw a complete-game shutout against Cincinnati when he last faced the Reds on July 10 of this year. He was touched for four runs and allowed a season-high 13 runs in his only other start against the Cincinnati this year, a 4-3 Reds win.

The FoxSheets trend points toward a Philadelphia series-opening victory:

Play Against - Road teams (CINCINNATI) - where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (365-203 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.3%, +99.1 units. Rating = 2*).

MLB Odds: Braves and Giants both feature pitching

The Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants have several things in common as they get ready for their Game 1 playoff series beginning Thursday at 6:37 p.m. (PT).

They are the two lowest-scoring teams in the postseason with the two lowest ERAs.

The Game 1 ‘over/under’ of 6 ½ reflects that. The Giants are 150 home favorites at MLB betting windows with Tim Lincecum on the mound against Derek Lowe.

This marks Atlanta’s first playoff appearance in five years. The Braves clinched the wild card spot on the final day of the regular season this past Sunday.

It’s worth noting that since 1998 a wild-card qualifier has won the World Series three times, while the team with the best regular-season record has captured the Series only twice.

The Giants took home their first division title and playoff berth since 2003. San Francisco was 7 ½ games out of first back on July 4.

The Giants are 165 favorites to win the series, according to odds at TheGreek.com, with Atlanta at plus 145. San Francisco is 7/1 to win the World Series, while Atlanta is 12/1, according to odds at Bodog.com.

Lincecum helped key the Giants during the last five weeks when they made up a 6 ½ game deficit on San Diego.

The two-time defending National League Cy Young Award winner was 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA in September. Lincecum led the NL in strikeouts with 231, but didn’t have the overall numbers he had in the two previous seasons going 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Lincecum actually was more effective on the road posting a 7-3 away mark with a 3.17 ERA compared to 9-7 with a 3.69 ERA at AT&T Park.

San Francisco is 4-0 in Lincecum’s last four home starts versus the Braves. Lincecum faced Atlanta twice this season, winning 6-3 as a 180 home favorite against Kenshin Kawakami on April 11. Lincecum held Atlanta to two runs on five hits in seven innings with one walk and 10 strikeouts.

Lincecum lost 3-2 on Aug. 5 in his other start to the Braves this season as a 103 road favorite versus Jair Jurrjens. Lincecum allowed three earned runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings with three walks and seven strikeouts.

Atlanta hitters batted only .216 off Lincecum during the two games. The Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum’s past eight starts against the Braves.

The Braves are pinning their Game 1 hopes on 37-year-old Lowe, who had a hot September going 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA in five starts. The Braves have won during each of his last six outings.

Lowe has been steady in the playoffs with a career mark of 5-5 with a 3.33 ERA in 83 2/3 innings.

The veteran right-hander has been particularly tough at AT&T Park with a 5-1 mark and 1.98 ERA in eight career starts there.

The baseball odds ‘under’ has cashed in seven of Lowe’s last 10 road starts. The Giants have gone ‘under’ the last nine times at home when facing a righty. The ‘under’ has cashed in 17 of San Francisco’s last 22 games when the Giants have gone against a right-hander.

The Giants have won eight of their last 10 home contests when facing a right-hander. The Braves are 2-10 in their last 12 road games when playing foes above .500.

Both teams have strong Rookie-of-the-Year candidates. San Francisco has catcher Buster Posey (.305, 18 homers and 67 RBIs) and Atlanta has outfielder Jason Heyward (.277, 18 homers and 72 RBIs).

The Braves have lost in six of their past seven visits to AT&T Park.

The early weather report is for partly cloudy with temperatures in the high 50s, a five percent chance of rain and six mph southwest winds.

Thursday, October 7Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas 6 Bot 9 Texas +112 500
Tampa Bay 0 Under 8 500

NY Yankees - 6:00 PM ET Minnesota +110 500 *****
Minnesota - Over 9 500 *****

Atlanta - 9:30 PM ET San Francisco -153 500 *****
San Francisco - Under 6.5 500 *****

MLB
Long Sheet


Thursday, October 7

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ATLANTA (91 - 71) at SAN FRANCISCO (92 - 70) - 9:35 PM
DEREK LOWE (R) vs. TIM LINCECUM (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 35-46 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 1-6 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 35-46 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 92-71 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 101-61 (+23.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 91-69 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 63-45 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 68-51 (+12.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 64-44 (+7.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 22-10 (+12.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-3 (+0.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

DEREK LOWE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LOWE is 7-5 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.02 and a WHIP of 1.303.
His team's record is 9-8 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-6. (+1.3 units)

TIM LINCECUM vs. ATLANTA since 1997
LINCECUM is 6-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.151.
His team's record is 6-2 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)

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TEXAS (90 - 72) at TAMPA BAY (96 - 66) - 2:35 PM
C.J. WILSON (L) vs. JAMES SHIELDS (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-2 (+1.6 Units) against TEXAS this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.8 Units)

C.J. WILSON vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
WILSON is 1-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. TEXAS since 1997
SHIELDS is 3-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.07 and a WHIP of 1.095.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

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NY YANKEES (95 - 67) at MINNESOTA (94 - 68) - 6:05 PM
ANDY PETTITTE (L) vs. CARL PAVANO (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 4-2 (+1.8 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)

ANDY PETTITTE vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
PETTITTE is 13-4 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.30 and a WHIP of 1.269.
His team's record is 15-6 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-10. (-0.1 units)

CARL PAVANO vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
PAVANO is 0-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 0.982.
His team's record is 3-3 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.5 units)

MLB


Thursday, October 7

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Tips and Trends
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Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants [TBS | 9:37 PM ET]

BRAVES: Atlanta is back in the postseason after missing the previous 3 seasons. It's only fitting that in the final season coached by Bobby Cox that this team make the playoffs. Atlanta enters the post-season as the National League Wild Card winner. The Braves were 91-71 SU this season, including a road record of 35-46 SU. Atlanta is used to playing close game, as they led the majors with 25 wins in their final at bat. Atlanta had 45 come from behind wins this season, nearly half of their season wins. The Braves were +0.32 and +10.05 units both SU and ATS overall this season. Veteran right-hander Derek Lowe will make the road start tonight, as he's 16-12 SU with an ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.37 this year. The Braves are 3-7 in their last 10 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff road games. Atlanta is 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a right-handed starter. The Braves are 0-8 in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Atlanta is 6-0 in Lowe's last 6 starts. The Braves are 2-5 in Lowe's last 7 starts against a team with a winning record.

Braves are 1-4 last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
Over is 12-2 last 14 Divisional Playoff road games.

Key Injuries - 2B Martin Prado (hip) is out.

Projected Score: 2

GIANTS: (-150, O/U 6.5) San Francisco is back in the post-season for the first time since 2003. The Giants enter the playoffs as the National League West division champions, a feat they didn't accomplish until the very last day of the regular season. The Giants finished the year at 92-70 SU, including 49-32 SU at home. Overall, San Francisco was +13.99 and -2.15 units both SU and ATS this year. There is no doubt that the Giants pitching staff leads this team. This San Francisco pitching staff had 1,331 strikeouts this season, easily the best mark in baseball. Ace Tim Lincecum will make the home start tonight, as he's 16-10 with an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.27. The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 home games against a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 5-2 in their last 7 games as a home favorite. The Giants are 5-1 in Lincecum's last 6 starts overall. San Francisco is 4-1 in Lincecum's last 5 starts with 7 or more days of rest. The Giants are 35-16 in Lincecum's last 51 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Giants are 1-4 last 5 games against the National League East.
Under is 9-0 last 9 home games against a right-handed starter.

Key Injuries - LF Mark DeRosa (wrist) is out.

Projected Score: 3 (UNDER-Total of the Day)



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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets
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Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (-138 )

It’s not often that you see a pitcher with a 13-15 record and 5.18 ERA take the mound for Game 2 of a playoff series. However, Tampa Bay’s James Shield has been terrible on the road this season and manager Joe Maddon wants him going at home. That could spell trouble against a Texas team that scored 787 runs this year, fifth most in the Major Leagues (Tampa Bay was third).

Meanwhile, Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton, who belted 32 homers and drove in 100 runs despite playing in just 133 games, was sidelined for 24 games in September due to a rib injury. But he returned for the final weekend against Los Angeles and is not about to miss any playoff action.

“It's just that time of year,” Hamilton said in an interview at Tropicana Field prior to Game 1. “You suck it up, you get after it, because I want to be in there for me teammates. I want to be in the lineup. I've been there most of the year with them through everything we've gone through together to get to this point. I'm going to be out there with them.”

Shields will be opposed by C.J. Wilson, who went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA during the regular season.

Pick: Over


Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants (-153, 6.5)

Noboby could have predicted seeing these two batting lineups in a playoff game when the season started way back in the spring. The Giants were supposed to feature Mark DeRosa, Benjie Molina, and Aaron Rowand. Instead, they are now being led by Buster Posey, Pat Burrell, Andres Torres, and Freddy Sanchez.

When the Braves beat Philadelphia last Sunday en route to clinching the wild card, only two of the eight position players in the starting lineup had started on opening day. Chipper Jones is gone; Martin Prado is gone; Yunel Escobar is gone, just to name a few. Enter Derrek Lee, Brooks Conrad, and Alex Gonzalez, among many others.

“It helps when you have the starting pitching that we've had all year and you've got the seventh-, eighth- and ninth-inning bullpen that we've had all year,” Jones said of the constant offensive reshuffling. “That helps a lot. That overshadows a lack of offense here and there.”

Speaking of a lack of offense, Atlanta is going up against Tim Lincecum on Thursday. Lincecum won’t be winning a third straight Cy Young Award, but he still went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA during the regular season.

Pick: Giants



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This Day in Baseball
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On October 7 in Baseball History...

1904 - Jack CheXXXo got his 41st victory of the season as New York defeated the Boston Red Sox, 3-2.

1919 - Two errors by Swede Risberg and one by Happy Felsch help put Dickie Kerr in a 4-0 hole, but Felsch, Buck Weaver, and Joe Jackson combine for seven hits as the White Sox win 5-4. Kerr wins his second game as the Sox now trail the best-of-nine Series by a 4-2 margin.

1925 - Walter Johnson opens the World Series in Pittsburgh. A fifth-inning home run by Pie Traynor is the only damaging blow as Johnson fans 10 for a 4-1 Washington win.

1927 - Herb Pennock is handed an 8-0 lead and takes a perfect game into the eighth inning. The Yankees southpaw retires Glenn Wright, but Pie Traynor breaks the spell with a single and Clyde Barnhart doubles him home. Pennock settles for a three-hit 8-1 victory over the Pirates to give the Yankees a commanding 3-0 edge in the World Series.

1928 - Lou Gehrig's two home runs led the New York Yankees to a 7-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, giving them a 3-0 lead.

1933 - Flags are at half staff for Game Five to honor William L. Veeck, Chicago Cubs president, who died suddenly. On the field, the World Series comes to a close when Mel Ott homers in the 10th inning for a 4-3 Giants victory over Washington.

1945 - Hank Greenberg's three doubles led Detroit to an 8-4 victory over the Chicago Cubs, giving the Tigers a 3-2 lead in the World Series.

1950 - Whitey Ford wins his first World Series game, 5-2, over Bob Miller at Yankee Stadium. The sweep of the Phillies gives the Yankees their 13th World Championship.

1952 - Billy Martin's running catch on a high infield pop with the bases loaded in the seventh inning snuffed out a Dodgers rally and the New York Yankees went on to win Game 7 of the World Series, 4-2.

1958 - The Yanks pull even against the Braves as Hank Bauer hits his fourth home run of the Series and New York wins Game Six in 10 innings, 4-3.

1961 - New York's Roger Maris won the third game of the World Series with a ninth-inning home run off the Reds' Bob Purkey. The Yankees won, 3-2, at Cincinnati's Crosley Field.

1968 - Mickey Lolich saves Detroit, 5-3, with an unlikely assist from Lou Brock, who tries to score standing up on Julian Javier's single and is gunned down by Willie Horton's throw. Al Kaline's bases-loaded single drives in the deciding runs.

1975 - The Red Sox gain a 5-3 win and three-game sweep over Oakland for the AL pennant. Carl Yastrzemski makes two great plays in the outfield and has two hits to back Rick Wise's pitching.

1977 - Down 5-3 to the Phillies in Game Three of the NLCS with two outs in the ninth inning, the Dodgers catch lightning in a bottle. Pinch-hitter Vic Davalillo beats out a two-strike drag bunt and pinch hitter Manny Mota follows with a long double. Los Angeles eventually pulls out a 6-5 victory.

1978 - The Dodgers win the pennant as Bill Russell's 10th-inning single scores Ron Cey in Game Four. Dusty Baker collects four hits as Los Angeles beats the Phillies, 4-3.

1984 - The San Diego Padres won the National League pennant with a 6-3 victory over the Chicago Cubs in the final game of the playoffs. The Padres won three straight after dropping the first two.

1987 - Don Baylor singled to break an eighth-inning tie and Gary Gaetti homered in his first two playoff at-bats as the Minnesota Twins beat the Detroit Tigers, 8-5, in the opening game of the ALCS.

1995 - Edgar Martinez of the Seattle Mariners hit a tie-breaking grand slam in the eighth inning and drove in seven runs -- the most ever in a postseason game to date -- leading the Mariners past the New York Yankees, 11-8, and sending the AL playoff series to a decisive Game 5.

1998 - Chuck Knoblauch argued for an interference call at first base instead of picking up the ball while Enrique Wilson scored to break a 1-1 tie in the 12th inning of the Cleveland Indians' 4-1 victory at New York in Game 2 of the AL championship series.

MLB
Write-Up


Thursday, October 7

Shields is 0-4, 7.91 in his last six starts; he was 1-1, 5.14 in two starts against Texas. This is huge game for Rays; they'll need strong effort out of pitcher who looks to be out of gas after tossing ton of innings over last three seasons. If Rays insist on using Baldelli as DH, they're in an indefensible position- guy was 5-24 this year. Wilson was 1-3, 5.85 in his last six starts; he beat Rays 9-6 June 4, giving up five runs in 5 IP.

Minnesota has now lost 10 straight playoff games, and is 2-10 against Bronx in playoffs since 2003; they didn't win last night when they had 3-0 lead in 6th inning, so this is uphill for them now. Pavano was 9-8 in 26 starts over four expensive years in Bronx; he is 2-5, 5.43 in his last eight starts. Pettitte was hurt a lot own stretch, is 0-1, 7.64 in his last four starts, but was 2-0, 1.26 in two starts vs Twins in May. Four of last five Pavano starts, six of last eight Pettitte starts went over total.

Braves were 4-3 vs Giants this year; home team was 5-2 in those games. Lowe was 5-0, 1.17 in his last five starts, after having only one win in his previous seven starts-- he was 2-0, 2.38 against the Giants this year. Lincecum is 5-1, 1.94 in his last six starts; he was 1-1, 3.38 vs Atlanta. Under is 8-4 in Lowe's last 12 starts, 6-2 in Lincecum's last eight starts. Atlanta won 25 games in its last at-bat, most in majors.