MistaFlava's MLB Playoffs Divion Series ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis) +219.25 Units in Regular Season!

MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Playoffs Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)


MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Regular Season Record: 102-92 (+219.25 Units)


This was one of my most productive Regular Seasons in about five years and even though I didn't hit my wagers at a high percentage mark, I did hit quite a few big plays and made a lot of money along the way. I am up +219.25 Units on the season using the 1 unit = $100 scale meaning altogether I brought in a cool 20k this past regular season and I obviously look to keep that going.

The Investment Group is happy, I start posting more extensive writeups for the duration of the playoffs and I will use the same exact betting scale as the regular season.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

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Wednesday, October 5


ALDS - Game 1


Tampa Bay Rays ML -128 (10 Units)

The Texas Rangers are in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 which makes them a very inexperienced ball club. What the Rangers do have however is a better lineup suited to hit left handed pitchers and in a battle of lefties today quite a few people seem to think the advantage is with Texas but I beg to differ. On the mound for the Rangers in Game 1 of this series is Cliff Lee who accepted a trade to the Rangers for this very reason, assuming they would reach the playoffs and he could contend once again 2009. The Phillies were 5-0 in the playoffs last season when Cliff Lee was the starter but they fell short in the end despite Lee getting the win in two of the games in that series. Things however have changed a bit and in 15 starts away from home this season, Lee's team was only 7-8 and his ERA was 3.53 with a WHIP of 1.10. Lee also went 2-4 in day games in 2010 sporting an ERA of 3.83 and a WHIP of 1.12 in those games. It's also important to note that Lee was 0-2 in two starts on Field Turf in 2010 putting together an ERA of 4.60 in those starts and allowing 8 ER's in only 15.2 innings pitched. The run support for Lee bottomed out near the end of the season as the Rangers have scored only 3.00 runs per game in his last three starts on the year. Lee made on start in Tampa as a member of the Rangers and it was a 6-4 loss where he allowed all six runs earned despite striking out 10 batters along the way. It's tempting to back a guy who was perfect in last year's playoffs but I am staying away.

The Tampa Bay Rays stumbled into the 2010 playoffs and did not play well at all down the stretch to win the AL East but this team always find a way to win and it doesn't concern me that they are batting .194 in their last 10 games overall to end the regular season. The Rays have preferred left handed pitchers all season long and they get one of the best in the business tonight. On the mound for the Rays is lefty David Price who did not get a chance to pitch in the playoff last season because the Rays did not make it but Price was a big part of the 2008 World Series finalist Rays squad as a reliever as he pitched in five games allowing only 1 ER in 6.2 innings of work while striking out 8 batters and walking only 4 and allowing only 2 hits. Had he never pitched in a playoff series in his career I would have no problems going against Price in this game but the youngster is ruthless at home this season going 9-2 on the year (his team was 12-4 in his 16 home starts) with an ERA of 1.96 and a WHIP of 1.05. He was also tremendous in day time starts going 7-2 in nine day time starts where his ERA was 3.38 and his WHIP 1.24 but the big thing for me is run support. Price always gets tons of run support and that should be no different in this game as the Rays average 6.33 runs per game in his last three starts of the regular season despite not hitting the ball well in the Month of September. In his career Price has made four career starts versus the Rangers allowing 11 ER's in two starts in Texas while allowing only 5 ER's in his two home starts versus the Rangers. You can question Lee's ability to pitch under pressure as much as you want but the bottom line is that he has carried this team for a very good part of the season and losing Game 1 for an ace like Price is just not an option. He has been too good at home over the course of the last few seasons.

In the Divisional Series there is no time to mess around. Best of five series with a few early losses meaning your 160 game season is on the line just like that. I don't agree with the MLB Playoff format and I don't think it makes sense for only 8 teams to get in and then some teams to go out on three losses but that's that and we have to live with it. The Rangers come into this ALDS Series having won five straight games versus AL East opponents and they have also won 7 of their last 8 games versus a team with a winning record this season. Having said that, their only hope of winning this series is Cliff Lee who was perfect in the 2009 MLB Playoffs but he still fell short of a World Series win. The Rangers come into this game 1-4 in Lee's last five road starts, they are 1-5 in Lee's last six starts versus AL East opponents and the Rangers have won only 9 of their last 32 games played on the Filed Turf surface so I don't like their chances in this game. Tampa Bay has won 18 of their last 25 home games versus a left handed starter and they finished the year by winning 29 of their last 42 home games which is much better than earlier in the year. Having said that, was has me impressed the most is that the Rays are 6-0 in David Price's last six starts versus AL West opponents, they are 10-2 in Price's last 12 starts in Game 1 of a series, they are 23-5 in Price's last 28 games where he is coming off a Quality Start in his last appearance and they are 9-2 in their last 11 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season. Texas has won only 5 of their last 22 games in Tampa Bay, for some reason this team hates playing on the Field Turf and I just don't see how they can overcome David Price at home in their first playoff game since 1999. The jitters will be there for a lot of veterans on the Rangers squad and I have to back the Rays.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 23-5 in David Price's last 28 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.


Tampa Bay 4, Texas 1





more to come...

If it will be 4-1 why not go with rl ? Just a thought.......

Ttratter said:

If it will be 4-1 why not go with rl ? Just a thought.......

Click to expand...

The -128 is well within my price range, no need to risk the RL in what could be a one run game.

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Wednesday, October 5


ALDS - Game 1


New York Yankees ML -146 (10 Units)

The New York Yankees did not win the Division but they did make it very clear that winning the Division was not a priority in 2010 and that resting their guys the final two weeks of the regular season was. So they did and it cost them the Division. Having said that the Yankees are 100% healthy heading into the post-season and right now I have to say they are the big time favorite to repeat as World Series Champions in about a months time. Their 3-7 record to finish the season is a good indication of their interest in those games but the current Yankees roster has tons of playoff experience and a sweep here is very likely. On the mound for the Yankees is their rock CC Sabathia who is coming off a gem in Toronto to finish his regular season and how could you not back a guy who's team has won 23 of his 34 starts in 2010 and provided him with 5.7 runs of support per start all season long? Sabathia went 10-5 on the road in 18 away starts this season where he put together an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.26 but the Twins lineup is not about to have any sort of impact on the Yankees ace. He has owned the Twins lineup for quite some time now and in his only trip to Minnesota as a member of the Yankees, Sabathia pitched 7.0 innings of work, allowed 3 hits and 1 ER's in a 10-2 Yankees win. He did not face them in their five games in 2010 but what's most incredible of all is the fact that Sabathia has now pitched 9 straight Quality Starts against the Twins dating back to the 2006 season when he was a member of the Cleveland Indians. In those 9 starts his team is 7-2 (only two losses at home as a member of the Indians) and only once did he allow more than 2 ER's in any of those nine starts. That's some incredible stuff from Sabathia and I feel relieved that the Yankees managed to win four of his last five starts away from home because it was a problem earlier in the season. Sabathia has owned the Twins as a member of both the Indians and Yankees and I expect that to continue tonight.

The Minnesota Twins know that they need to win both games at home to have a chance to advance in this series and despite having home field advantage, everybody knows they are a huge underdog in this series. It also doesn't help that while tanking the last few weeks of the season after having clinched the Division quite a while back, the Twins were just atrocious. They finished the season 2-8 in their last 10 games where the team managed to hit only .210 in those games, the pitching staff had an ERA of 7.25 and the Twins were just an overall embarrassment the last couple of weeks. I don't like that because now starting pitcher and Twins ace Francisco Liriano comes into this series with an ERA of 8.10 in his last three starts with a WHIP of 1.50 in those starts and an 0-3 SU record for both him and the team. That's a big mess. I have to say Liriano has pitched really well at home this season putting together a record of 7-5 with an ERA of 3.11 and a WHIP of 1.16 in 16 home starts this season but his recent outings are very concerning as he was shelled by both the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics in his last two home starts of the regular season. In his last three starts the offense was only able to provide him 1.67 runs of support per starts and now more than ever they miss Justin Morneau who is 100% not playing in this series. Liriano has made four career starts against the Yankees, two at home and two on the road and the Twins are 0-4 in those games and Liriano, despite allowing only 9 ER's in all four starts combined, did allow 28 hits in those starts in only 24.1 innings of work and it just hasn't worked out for him against this Yankees team. The Twins are a tempting underdog because they were one of the best home teams in MLB this past regular season but the Yankees have always had their number and that won't be any different in this game tonight. The Twins struggle against the Yankees ace.

We can't even call this a great pitching matchup because not only is Francisco Liriano having the worst stretch of starts he has had all season long right now at the worst time possible but Liriano has tried four times in the past to beat this Yankees team and not once has he been successful. The Yankees won 4 of the 6 meetings between these squads this season all I keep hearing about is that nobody wants to play in Minnesota in the playoffs but the Yankees will play anyone anywhere and Sabathia has dominated the Twins throughout the course of his sensational career. What you need to know about New York is that the Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite and they are 4-1 in their last five Division Playoff games. The Yankees have won 47 of their last 65 games versus AL Central opponents, they are 4-1 in CC Sabathia's last five road starts and they have won 18 of Sabathia's last 23 starts in a Game 1 of a series so if anyone is going to set the tone for the Yankees it has to be their ace. Now I understand that New York is 0-9 in their last nine games versus a left handed starter and that is a concern for sure however they have won 38 of Sabathia's last 51 starts overall, they have their best guy on the mound and there are no excuses to lose this game. The Twins are a miserable playoff team going 5-18 in their last 23 MLB Playoff games and they too have struggled against lefties winning only 1 of their last 5 games versus a left handed pitcher. The Twins are 3-14 in their last 17 playoff games as an underdog, they are 1-12 in their last 13 Divisional Playoff Games and that includes 0-7 in their last seven Divisional Series home games. The Twins are also 1-10 in Francisco Liriano's last 11 starts versus the AL East and have now lost eight straight home playoff games. This is a new ballpark and some think the fortunes will change for the Twins but without Morneau, they don't stand a chance in this series or in this game.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 0-8 in their last eight playoff home games.


NY Yankees 6, Minnesota 2





more to come...

ALDS/NLDS Recap

Tampa Bay ML -128 (Game 1)
NY Yankees ML -146 (Game 1)



1-1 (-2.80 Units) in Divisional Series with more to come...





:toast:

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Thursday, October 7


ALDS - Game 2


Tampa Bay Rays ML -120 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE ALDS***

The Texas Ranges shocked pretty much everyone with their Game 1 win but now that I look back at my wager against the Rangers, what sense did it make going against a guy (Cliff Lee) that was 5-0 in the playoffs last season? Not much. So we move onto Game 2 of the series and I will continue to support the fact that the Rangers have never played well on Field Turf and I will support the fact that they lack the experience needed to win in the playoffs. CJ Wilson is on the mound for the Rangers in Game 2 and unlike Cliff Lee, this is his very first playoff game appearance and nerves will no doubt be a factor. Wilson comes into this series struggling a bit because despite the Rangers being 2-1 in his last three starts, Wilson has an ERA of 5.06 in those starts and a WHIP of 1.31. In a regular season game I would have to give the edge to Wilson because the Rangers are an impressive 24-9 this season in Wilson's 33 starts and they are providing him 4.58 runs of support per start on the season but daytime starts have not gone so well for Wilson as the Rangers are only 6-5 in his 11 daytime starts in 2010 and 18-4 in his 22 night time starts in 2010. On the road this season the Rangers won 9 of Wilson's 14 starts but a playoff road game is nothing like a regular season home game and I see Wilson having some problems in this one. The pressure will be very high and the Rays are not about to sit back and stay quiet.

The Tampa Bay Rays are in trouble if this lose this game and their entire season hangs in the balance of Game 2 in this series. You go back to Texas down 2-0 in the series and you can forget about a return trip to Tampa Bay. The Rays had a ton of chances to put some runs on the board against Cliff Lee and against the Rangers bullpen but they failed to capitalize on so many chances and in the end they never even made a game of it. James Shields is a huge liability as the Game 2 starter and I'm sure Joe Madden and company expected to be up 1-0 in the series when he would take to the mound but that's not the case and Shields will now have to pitch the game of his life. Unlike CJ Wilson who is pitching for the Rangers, Shields at least has some playoff experience. He was 2-2 in his four starts in the 2008 MLB Playoffs and he put together an ERA of 2.88 in those starts, he managed to pitch 25.0 total innings while allowing 28 hits, striking out 17 and walking 8 batters. All four of those playoff starts came at Tropicana Field and not once did Shields allow more than 3 ER's in a game so I wouldn't be too concerned with his recent starts to end the regular season that saw him allow at least 5 ER's in each of his last three starts. Shields has faced the Rangers at home three times in his career and the Rays have won all three of those games with every single one of those starts being a Quality Start where Shields went 21.0 innings, allowed 7 ER's and struck out 18 batters along the way. Shields is an experienced and playoff seasoned type of guy and I have all the confidence in the world he is going to step up to the plate and beat a playoff rookie in this one. Expect somewhat of a gem from Shields to even this series.

So I talked earlier about the Rangers for some reason having no success whatsoever in games played on Field Turf and I'm not too sure what the deal is with that but what I do know is that this is a must win game for Tampa Bay and for a team that went 49-32 at home this season, I really don't see them losing this second game. It all comes down to playoff pitching experience and this being CJ Wilson's first ever playoff start, would have to be a concern. James Shields on the other has been there and done this and this is now his 5th career home playoff start and he'll be ready. The problem with the Rangers has been consistency because they are 2-7 in their last nine games coming off a game where they score 5 runs or more. Texas is also 3-8 in their last 11 road games versus a right handed starter, they are 1-4 in their last five games versus a right starter overall and despite all the success CJ Wilson has had pitching this season, the Rangers are still 1-6 in Wilson's last seven road starts versus a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay has now lost four straight playoff games dating back to the 2008 World Series and someone has to put an end to this madness. What I do know is that the Rays are 4-1 in James Shield's last five starts versus a team with a winning record on the season and they have won 27 of his last 38 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season. Most of his poor performances have come against poor opponents and for some reason Shields is a lot more focused when a lot is on the line. Don't forget, Texas have won only 3 of their last 13 games played in Tampa Bay and with a first time playoff pitcher on the mound, I just don't see how they win this game. I'll go with the Rays again.

Trend of the Game: Texas is 1-6 in CJ Wilson's last seven road starts versus a team with a winning record on the season.


Tampa Bay 7, Texas 2





more to come...

So lets see here.You got lucky and hit a few big plays and now you say "The Investment Group is happy".

Oh flava please tell me how to join your awesome Investment group.You are a pathetic wanna be tout.

Also you say you made a cool 20k last season.What a joke.How many times have we caught you using lines that made it obvious you were not betting with a book.

And now we wait for a couple of your ghost friends to appear and take your back.Just let him post,we love his write ups,he`s not doing any harm.

Well maybe to me and you he is not but anyone who joins his "Investment group"will soon be joining Flava at the soup kitchen.Well I guess that`s false cause Flava is to smart to bet his own plays!!!!


BEWARE NEWBIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No locks here said:

So lets see here.You got lucky and hit a few big plays and now you say "The Investment Group is happy".

Oh flava please tell me how to join your awesome Investment group.You are a pathetic wanna be tout.

Also you say you made a cool 20k last season.What a joke.How many times have we caught you using lines that made it obvious you were not betting with a book.

And now we wait for a couple of your ghost friends to appear and take your back.Just let him post,we love his write ups,he`s not doing any harm.

Well maybe to me and you he is not but anyone who joins his "Investment group"will soon be joining Flava at the soup kitchen.Well I guess that`s false cause Flava is to smart to bet his own plays!!!!


BEWARE NEWBIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Click to expand...

And what makes you think people will listen to your dumbass? Lets see you have 580 post (dont see picks), bet all you do is bitch on peoples forums like a noob. If you dont like someone's picks, dont read the post. Stop bitching!!

BOL FLAVA

Rangers shocked???? I wouldnt go that far

Rangers bats are hitting

Shields has been garbage recently

CJ Wilson is solid enough to get the win

Ride the Rangers

It's not like TB at home is tooo much of a home field adv. Least electric ballpark in the playoffs

AirHEAD23,I`m not bitching.These free forums are not to be used for trolling for business by touts.What do you think his agenda is when he says"The Investment Group is happy"?Get a clue Einstein!!!

There you go again.. Bitching!

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Thursday, October 7


ALDS - Game 2


Minnesota Twins +105 (10 Units)

The New York Yankees showed why they have the most dangerous bats in the MLB Playoffs when Mark Texeira changed Game 1 with his three run shot in yesterday's 6-4 win over the Twins. Winning Game 2 however, won't be as easy. The fact of the matter remains that the Yankees don't hit all that well away from home and they have hit only .255 on the road this season and only .250 against right handed pitchers away from home. On the mound tonight for the Yankees is Andy Pettitte who was horrendous in his last three starts to end the regular season going 0-1 in those starts, pitching only 13.1 innings combined and putting together an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.88 in those games. The Yankees were 1-2 in those starts and they won 16 of Pettitte's 21 starts in 2010 which is impressive. Pettitte has made 40 career MLB Playoff starts and is 18-9 in those starts with an ERA of 3.90 and a WHIP of 1.42 in those starts which is not all that great. Having said that, heading into last season, Andy Pettitte had not made a playoff start since 2007 and that was his only playoff start since the 2005 season when he was with the Astros. The aging veteran played really well in daytime games this season going 7-0 in 12 daytime starts but he went only 4-3 in 9 night time starts with an ERA of 4.06 and a WHIP of 1.37 in those games. Pettitte really struggled against Boston in his last two regular season starts and having made only three starts since his injury back in July, I don't know that Pettitte is back at the level he needs to be to pitch in the playoffs...not yet anyways. He beat the Twins twice in 2010 but both starts were back in May and the win in Minnesota was only a 3-2 but again I just don't think Pettitte is 100% for the ALDS and it could cost the Yankees this game. He was also on the other side of the mound in Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS against this very same Yankees team in a 4-1 win that sent the Twins packing for the year.

The Minnesota Twins know they have to win this game or they can kiss the ALDS and their MLB best home record goodbye for the 2010 season. That's right the Twins head into the playoffs with the best home record in baseball and with a 4-0 lead in Game 1 of this series, I was positive the Yankees were another victim of the new Target Field. Having said that I still have concerns about the way the Twins finished the regular season and how they are now 2-8 in their last 10 games and how they are batting only .220 in those games. The Twins batted .281 at home this season however and I have a feeling they'll do enough to get by Andy Pettitte in Game 2 of this series. On the mound for Minnesota is Carl Pavano who like Pettitte has been horrendous his last three starts of the season with an ERA of 7.31 and a WHIP of 1.94 but somehow Pavano kept his team in the game and he has a 1-0 record in those three starts. Last year's Game 3 starts against the Yankees was a long awaited return to the playoffs for Carl Pavano who last pitched in the 2003 playoffs pitching once in the NLDS, once in the NLCS and once in the World Series for the Marlins. He pitched a game against the Yankees in that 2009 playoff game but the offense failed to show up and the Twins lost 4-1 despite Pavano going 7.0 innings and allowing only 2 ER's. Pavano is 2-1 in those four playoff starts with an ERA of 1.71 which is a lot more impressive than Pettitte and his post-season record. Despite the recent struggles Pavano has pitched well in 2010 with a WHIP of only 1.19 and an ERA of 3.75 in 32 starts this season. He was 8-4 in 14 home starts this season and despite pitching so poorly in his last three starts, the Twins still found a way to get him some runs and he got 7.0 runs of support per start in those starts. Again this is a re-match of Pavano's Game 3 start against the Yankees in 2009 and I expect the veteran to have another great performance only this time the offense is going to show up and support his stuff. Pavano lost to Pettitte in 2009 but I give him the edge in the re-match played in this brand new ballpark.

The season is on the line for the Twins this evening and with the best home record in Major League Baseball I just don't think they'll give up this easily. It's been a really long time since Minnesota won a home playoff game (they were swept in three games in this series last year) and this is their best team in a long time. Having said that, they started Game 1 on a very good note taking the 4-0 lead in the early going but they couldn't hold off on allowing Home Runs by the Yankees and eventually the better hitting team took over. I do however know that Carl Pavano wants to win this game pretty darn bad and even though he couldn't get it done when the Twins had their backs to the wall in 2009, this is one year later and Pavano has been tremendous in this ballpark. I rarely go against the Yankees in the playoffs but they are only 2-10 in their last 12 games following a game where they score 5 or more runs and they are 0-4 in their last four games coming off a win. Minnesota is 0-9 in their last nine home playoff games and something has to give because these fans are only going to be patient for so long and with so much pressure on the team to win, Carl Pavano is the perfect guy to take the mound. The Twins are 7-2 in Carl Pavano's last nine starts when is coming off a Quality Start and his final start of the regular season was a gem against the Blue Jays but again the offense failed to show up for him. I am going against all trends in this game and picking the Twins to win one home game. They won't win again but with the best home record in MLB, I just don't see this happening two years in a row. Take the Twins with confidence.

Trend of the Game: NY Yankees are 2-10 in their last 12 games coming off a game where they scored 5+ runs.


Minnesota 4, NY Yankees 3





more to come...

HitMan21 said:

Rangers shocked???? I wouldnt go that far

Rangers bats are hitting

Shields has been garbage recently

CJ Wilson is solid enough to get the win

Ride the Rangers

It's not like TB at home is tooo much of a home field adv. Least electric ballpark in the playoffs

Click to expand...

Are you not concerned with Wilson making his first career playoff start? Shields has been here and done that and has actually pitched really well against teams with a winning record on the season. GL

Tex's shot was a 2 run shot ...........

HitMan21 said:

Rangers shocked???? I wouldnt go that far

Rangers bats are hitting

Shields has been garbage recently

CJ Wilson is solid enough to get the win

Ride the Rangers

It's not like TB at home is tooo much of a home field adv. Least electric ballpark in the playoffs

Click to expand...

Not to hijack MF thread but this are concerns for me too.

Sorry Flava I can`t follow you tonight.I think after you winning 20K in the regular season you might be due for a correction( I borrowed that phrase from Buffet Gambler ).I `m down a few units so I will play The Yankees -118 for 300 units.If this wins i will be up 6 units for the year.

Wish me luck guys!!!!

No worries Flava.You dropped 4k so far in the playoffs but I`m sure the 20k you made "The Investment Group "will keep them at bay.And keep in mind we always have the 100-300 unit play to bale us out.

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Friday, October 8


Cincinnati-Philadelphia 'UNDER' 7.5 (10 Units)

San Francisco Giants ML -134 (10 Units)





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Saturday, October 9


Texas Rangers ML -127 (10 Units)

Minnesota-NY Yankees 'OVER' 9 (10 Units)





more to come...

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Sunday, October 10


San Francisco Giants ML +127 (10 Units)

Philadelphia Phillies ML -128 (10 Units)





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