May add later.
Medium Play
Reds +198
When backing large underdogs, all else equal, you want to back a high variance pitcher. Vazquez is exactly such. He has been highly inconsistent since coming back from injury, but put one of the more dominating Septembers in all of baseball. Being a groundball pitcher and strikeout pitcher, Vazquez matches up well against a powerful Phillies lineup inside a hitter’s park. He has actually been harder on left handed bats this year than right handed hitters, which bodes well for his chances against a loaded lineup from the left side. Given the series schedule, the Reds have a lot of leverage using their bullpen, a bullpen deeper and better than their counterparts. It’s a also a bullpen that matches up well against the Phillies, as they can use three effective southpaws, Wood, Chapman, and Rhodes to counter the left handed power. This should allow Vazquez to pitch in a role he is most effective pitching in, being effectively wild, since generating a high pitch count early is not a concern. Polanco is out of the lineup and the table setter will be replaced with a dead bat.
There is not much bad you can say about Halladay, but all the good that can be said about him seems to be factored into the price. Halladay is coming off his worst month of the season, and has allowed 3 or more runs in six of his last seven starts. Fatigue may be starting to set in. Halladay also matches up better against teams that are built to manufacture runs, as his groundball propensity and ability to get out of jams pays off. The Reds are not that team. They can beat you deep from top to bottom and are built for this park. He is also much better against right handed batters, while the Reds will send out 2 plus hitters form the left side and will surround them with veterans less vulnerable to Halladay’s craftiness. Halladay faced the Reds twice this season, one start allowing 13 hits, the most in any start in his entire career. Pressure will be on him to exit with the lead, as the Reds have the bullpen edge in the later innings.
The Phillies should win this game, but not at the 66.7% clip the market is pricing him. About a 20 cent premium on their asking price. I’ll take the underdog.
Medium Play
Reds +198
When backing large underdogs, all else equal, you want to back a high variance pitcher. Vazquez is exactly such. He has been highly inconsistent since coming back from injury, but put one of the more dominating Septembers in all of baseball. Being a groundball pitcher and strikeout pitcher, Vazquez matches up well against a powerful Phillies lineup inside a hitter’s park. He has actually been harder on left handed bats this year than right handed hitters, which bodes well for his chances against a loaded lineup from the left side. Given the series schedule, the Reds have a lot of leverage using their bullpen, a bullpen deeper and better than their counterparts. It’s a also a bullpen that matches up well against the Phillies, as they can use three effective southpaws, Wood, Chapman, and Rhodes to counter the left handed power. This should allow Vazquez to pitch in a role he is most effective pitching in, being effectively wild, since generating a high pitch count early is not a concern. Polanco is out of the lineup and the table setter will be replaced with a dead bat.
There is not much bad you can say about Halladay, but all the good that can be said about him seems to be factored into the price. Halladay is coming off his worst month of the season, and has allowed 3 or more runs in six of his last seven starts. Fatigue may be starting to set in. Halladay also matches up better against teams that are built to manufacture runs, as his groundball propensity and ability to get out of jams pays off. The Reds are not that team. They can beat you deep from top to bottom and are built for this park. He is also much better against right handed batters, while the Reds will send out 2 plus hitters form the left side and will surround them with veterans less vulnerable to Halladay’s craftiness. Halladay faced the Reds twice this season, one start allowing 13 hits, the most in any start in his entire career. Pressure will be on him to exit with the lead, as the Reds have the bullpen edge in the later innings.
The Phillies should win this game, but not at the 66.7% clip the market is pricing him. About a 20 cent premium on their asking price. I’ll take the underdog.
