Rays/Rangers

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Shields -120
Hard to fathom that the Rays would drop both at home to me, not that they can't, however I wouldn't worry too much about the lack of runs yesterday. Cliff Lee is the truth and they had a chance to get to him early, when you spot Lee 2 runs he knows what to do with it, when you spot him 3 it's ballgame over.
CJ Wilson now hucks in a similar lefty fashion as Lee, however, Wilson really is the antithesis of Lee in terms of fashion. He's going to allow the Rays to do what they do well - be patient and take free passes, which sets up their running game and allows them to drive in runs, without stringing together four singles in a row. Lee was an impossible match for them and Wilson is just what the doctor ordered. I also do always love getting to see a left-hander on back to back days, I do believe it helps.
Now the biggest question, to me, is whether or not James Shields can live up to his moniker or not today. Strange season for Shields who seemed to have just a touch less pop on his fastball which had a trickle down effect onto his other pitches and also seemed to allow hitters to make consistently better contact resulting in a huge spike in BABIP and HR/FB. Always good at the Trop, looking at Shields last 4 starts at home:
Aug 18: Tex. 7 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), 6 k's, 1 bb
Aug 29: Bos. 6.2 IP, 7 hits, 3 runs, 8 k's, 1 bb
Sept 15: NYY 6.1 IP, 8 hits, 1 run, 8 k's, 2 bb's
Sept 26: Sea 6 IP, 8 hits, 5 runs, 6 k's, 2 bb's

28/6 K/BB...better news even than that in my opinion is the 40/40 groundball/flyball ratio over the last four games...despite his ERA continuing to spike from already unexpectedly high rates, I don't think Shields is pitching nearly as bad as his ERA would have you believe.

Bottom line is this, you're getting a pitcher who can miss bats, limit walks and is clearly better than his ERA, at home, for the better team, at -120. That is a fairly rare opportunity in baseball and one I will be exploiting.

GL.
 

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