NoSweatBets - Tampa Rays -115 - Great Play

Search

New member
Joined
Oct 11, 2010
Messages
61
Tokens
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Rays -115
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 6.5
Final Score Prediction: Rays 5 - Rangers 3

I usually don't believe in giving Ratings of 5 for baseball games that are do or die games. But this is a great position for the Rays. The Rays came out flat for their first two home games and ended up down 2-0 in the series. Many people wrote the Rays off for games 3 and 4, but as the #1 team in the AL this year (record-wise), they bounced back. Now we are getting Price, a potential AL CY Young winner, at -115 at home? This line looks way too fishy. How is Mr. Reliable, Cliff Lee a dog today after his dominating performance in game one? Simple, if you look at Cliff Lee during the regular season, the Rays had his number. The Rays bats are hot again, and I expect them to manufacture a few runs off Lee. I was never too fond of the Rangers bullpen and I think they are good for another few runs. Put in a bad start from Price for game 1 (who wouldn't have game 1 jitters), and the Rays look like a steal here. I expect Price to come back with complete composure and dominate the Rangers bats who have suddenly gone cold. The Rangers have never won a playoff series in their history and I expect Ron Washington to do a line or two after this game. This game will be sweat free. This is the play of the day. Take the Rays, and possibly the over if you like, and call it a day. I'm quite confident that we are looking at a 2-0 day here.

:money8:
 

New member
Joined
Feb 10, 2008
Messages
554
Tokens
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Rays -115
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 6.5
Final Score Prediction: Rays 5 - Rangers 3

....... The Rays came out flat for their first two home games. Is this a good sign? How do you come out flat, at home, in the playoffs, with your ace, where every game matters? They weren't flat, they just got beat by 2 dominant pitching performances........ Now we are getting Price, a potential AL CY Young winner, at -115 at home? This line looks way too fishy. How is Mr. Reliable, Cliff Lee a dog today after his dominating performance in game one? You gonna make a potential Cy Young winner, pitching at home, for the team with the best record in baseball a dog at home?? I think the line is right on...low if anything, but low for good reason........Simple, if you look at Cliff Lee during the regular season, the Rays had his number. It appears Cliff Lee is not thrilled to be in Texas and wants to be a Yankee. Is it therefore possible that he was simply disinterested in putting out a max effort in games that simply did not matter? NOW, the games matter. ...........Put in a bad start from Price for game 1 (who wouldn't have game 1 jitters), and the Rays look like a steal here. If it was the jitters, he is really going to have them today since that was just the 1st game of the series and today's game is advance or go home.


Tampa may very well win and do so in style.....just don't agree with your
analysis/reasoning....wish you the best of luck today :toast:
 

New member
Joined
Feb 28, 2007
Messages
1,138
Tokens
Are you kidding? This line is WAY weak for tampaRays...... You sound like me when I first started to gamble ( no pun intended) ... Look man ...average square ass bettor is looking at this game simply like this......

1) TAMPA rays at HOME with Their ACE is a small favorite
2) RAYS won the last 2 games oN the road have ALL momentum and there bats are hot in contrast with rangers bats are cold
3) Price is a MUCH better pitcher than what he demonstrated game 1 which he came out as -135 fav
4) Lee pitched well game 1 but now Tampa is hot and in eleimintation game AT HOME.... LEE cant win the game by himself


With ALL of those in consideration IF Vegas wanted money on Texas they would make PRice the SAME - 135 price.....but they didnt ... its at a -115.... You tell me where the Value is for TEXAS ( lost 2 in a row , not hitting, no momentum, playing on the road vs a vengeful tampa team IN AN ELIMINATION GAME ) Im only telling u this because I have LOST similar games being on your side in my past... TEXAS is the Side tonight..sorry man
 

New member
Joined
Feb 28, 2007
Messages
1,138
Tokens
ALSO notice how Tampa has way more action on their runline but its at +180...but u click on reverse RL with TEXAS - 1.5 and its at +150 ...fishy fishy
 

New member
Joined
Sep 30, 2010
Messages
12
Tokens
I'm the opposite of you guys that are loving the over, I took Tampa at -113, and the UNDER 6 1/2. Final Score prediction is 4-2.

BOL guys.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
17,245
Tokens
Are you kidding? This line is WAY weak for tampaRays...... You sound like me when I first started to gamble ( no pun intended) ... Look man ...average square ass bettor is looking at this game simply like this......

1) TAMPA rays at HOME with Their ACE is a small favorite
2) RAYS won the last 2 games oN the road have ALL momentum and there bats are hot in contrast with rangers bats are cold
3) Price is a MUCH better pitcher than what he demonstrated game 1 which he came out as -135 fav
4) Lee pitched well game 1 but now Tampa is hot and in eleimintation game AT HOME.... LEE cant win the game


With ALL of those in consideration IF Vegas wanted money on Texas they would make PRice the SAME - 135 price.....but they didnt ... its at a -115.... You tell me where the Value is for TEXAS ( lost 2 in a row , not hitting, no momentum, playing on the road vs a vengeful tampa team IN AN ELIMINATION GAME ) Im only telling u this because I have LOST similar games being on your side in my past... TEXAS is the Side tonight..sorry man

Actually @ 57% TX / 43% TB and +108/-115, little more money on Rangers.

~T~
 

New member
Joined
Jul 7, 2010
Messages
890
Tokens
MARMIX U ARE DEAD ON ABOUT THE RUNLINES!!!!!!!!!

That is why i took texas all over the board and runline. texas +150 on the runline???? really???? Should be +180/+190.
 

New member
Joined
Feb 28, 2007
Messages
1,138
Tokens
http://www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid.html?sort=rot... 91 % is on Tampa RL buddy and yes about 58 percent is on Texas ML but im saying strictly on the RL Tampa is +190 and texas is +150.....


Im just saying no arguing this fact TAMPA BAY tonight is SQUARE :ohno:....


p.s. when i say RL for texas I mean ALTERNATIVE RUNLINE... apologies for that confusion
 

New member
Joined
Feb 28, 2007
Messages
1,138
Tokens
Not confused here, smells pretty damn bad. Gl

~T~


Yeauh but who knows by game time it might change im a bettor who strictly goes on line movement and if the tampa -115 goes up to -125 by game time then Tampa it is! but if it sags down to -110 then texas it is.....
 

New member
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
17,245
Tokens
Yeauh but who knows by game time it might change im a bettor who strictly goes on line movement and if the tampa -115 goes up to -125 by game time then Tampa it is! but if it sags down to -110 then texas it is.....

Not trying to hijack this thread, but I fully understand TB -115 to -125. But, TB down just tells me the books are trying to lighten a heavy TX load. What am I missing here?

~T~
 

GO VIKINGS!
Joined
Oct 13, 2008
Messages
2,319
Tokens
ALSO notice how Tampa has way more action on their runline but its at +180...but u click on reverse RL with TEXAS - 1.5 and its at +150 ...fishy fishy
sorry man but thats where your wrong. i cant remember the exact number, but i think its something like 12% of road teams that win win by only 1 run. For home teams the percentage of one run wins is higher (around 18-20%). The reason for this, is because when a home team wins they generally have one less inning to hit (because the game ends in the top of the ninth. In a game that it very close to a pick em, the chances are, if you think the rangers win there is a good chance they win by 2. If you think the Rays win, the percentage of them winning by two is less likely. Therefore, the lines for each teams -1.5 spread look right on to me
 

New member
Joined
Jul 29, 2010
Messages
3,858
Tokens
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Put in a bad start from Price for game 1 (who wouldn't have game 1 jitters)



if you believe that, then how can you bank on him NOT having game 5 jitters?

may god continue to bless you in all that you do, but i hope you're wrong
 

New member
Joined
Jul 29, 2010
Messages
3,858
Tokens
:smoker2:a bit of a scary stat: the rays have not lost consecutive david price starts this season:smoking:
 

New member
Joined
Feb 28, 2007
Messages
1,138
Tokens
Not trying to hijack this thread, but I fully understand TB -115 to -125. But, TB down just tells me the books are trying to lighten a heavy TX load. What am I missing here?

~T~


Line up to -120 ..... IF it falls down to less than -115 AND the percentage of bets fluctuates a bit to where more people closer to game time are on Rays THEN it will be texas..sorry i mnot used to typing out my thought process
 

Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2007
Messages
2,564
Tokens
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Rays -115
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 6.5
Final Score Prediction: Rays 5 - Rangers 3

I usually don't believe in giving Ratings of 5 for baseball games that are do or die games. But this is a great position for the Rays. The Rays came out flat for their first two home games and ended up down 2-0 in the series. Many people wrote the Rays off for games 3 and 4, but as the #1 team in the AL this year (record-wise), they bounced back. Now we are getting Price, a potential AL CY Young winner, at -115 at home? This line looks way too fishy. How is Mr. Reliable, Cliff Lee a dog today after his dominating performance in game one? Simple, if you look at Cliff Lee during the regular season, the Rays had his number. The Rays bats are hot again, and I expect them to manufacture a few runs off Lee. I was never too fond of the Rangers bullpen and I think they are good for another few runs. Put in a bad start from Price for game 1 (who wouldn't have game 1 jitters), and the Rays look like a steal here. I expect Price to come back with complete composure and dominate the Rangers bats who have suddenly gone cold. The Rangers have never won a playoff series in their history and I expect Ron Washington to do a line or two after this game. This game will be sweat free. This is the play of the day. Take the Rays, and possibly the over if you like, and call it a day. I'm quite confident that we are looking at a 2-0 day here.

:money8:
'Rays came out flat for their first two home games' ... do you really believe that?? Besides, being one of the most over used and ridiculous words in sports how does a team in the playoffs come out 'flat'? Maybe Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson had something to do with the Rays being flat. Bet they wouldn't have looked flat if I had been pitching for Texas in either of those first two games.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 11, 2010
Messages
61
Tokens
Sorry guys I couldn't post some insight before the game. I'm in China, so the time difference is huge.

Marmix22 - Where in SF are you located? I'm originally from Fremont, but lived in SF for a little bit after my university days. Also, I tend to 100 percent disagree with you. I think the books are trying to switch bettors mind, with such a low Tampa line. If they set Tampa at the original -135 (like Game 1) then there would be way too much heavy action on the Rangers. The line of -115 sets it at a 50/50 stance. I don't think taking Tampa tonight is "square" at all. If anything, I would say the opposite. Marmix22, this is not college football or the NFL. When betting MLB postseason, you can't factor in fishy lines or inflated/deflated juice. That is my opinion. I've been betting for over 15 years, and I do not bet "square" bets at all.

Every man looks at a line and thinks different. There is no arguing that. Goodluck to all!
 

New member
Joined
Feb 28, 2007
Messages
1,138
Tokens
San Francisco more towards like daly city area the sunset.... dayum all the way in china!!.... but anyway man again i wasnt being a dick and with no pun intended u can be betting for 40 years but Tampa Bay off 2 straight wins with momentum AT home with their ACE at -115 is a EASY bet...one that any average Joe who decides randomly to gamble on a game would EASILY pick TAMPA..now tampa coulda won this game ....sure...but betting these games in the long run will cost u ..BOL in ur future bets
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,129
Messages
13,448,692
Members
99,395
Latest member
visiontecnologica
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com