correlated parlays and buying points question

some sharp folks around here. looking for some feedback.

As far as football correlated parlays are concerned, I understand that if the point spread is at least 33% of the total you shouldn't be able to parlay the over-favorite and/or under-dog b/c this is +ev for the bettor.

Now let's say the point spread is somewhere around 29% of the total. At this point it is under the key 33% thus not correlated and isnt an advantage to the bettor.

However, if the player buys 3 points for the dog to push the percentage over 33% of the total, would this be a +ev for the player if he parlayed the dog with the under? Or would the extra vig associated with buying the points wipe out any +ev?

no good

There's also a fallacy in the original post; *any* correlation is an advantage for the better, 33% is just a mystical line at which some books say you can't play it; for others it's 50% and probably other variations too.

the buy won't work. Back in those days I might buy to +14.5 or -13.5 with a total like 33-37 for example.

buying 3 points would make the side -170 or worse, no 3 points are worth that in football....basketball ( NBA) perhaps.( side only, no parlay).

captain - what book other than betus are you finding that has this option?

captainmorgasm said:

some sharp folks around here. looking for some feedback.

As far as football correlated parlays are concerned, I understand that if the point spread is at least 33% of the total you shouldn't be able to parlay the over-favorite and/or under-dog b/c this is +ev for the bettor.

Now let's say the point spread is somewhere around 29% of the total. At this point it is under the key 33% thus not correlated and isnt an advantage to the bettor.

However, if the player buys 3 points for the dog to push the percentage over 33% of the total, would this be a +ev for the player if he parlayed the dog with the under? Or would the extra vig associated with buying the points wipe out any +ev?

Click to expand...

Captain, the other responders have been exactly correct concerning buying points to get the line up to a mystical percentage of the o/u -- you don't want to do it. The reduction in parlay payout caused by the - 140 (or whatever) you'd have to pay to get the spread high enough to satisfy your lower limit -- i think you mentioned 33% -- means that you'd be better off taking your correlated parlay without buying points, even if the line's only 30% or whatever.

This is just one man's opinion, but I've spent a lot of time and effort researching correlated parlays, and I have to tell you that doing all college football gms inclusive research over 3 yrs gave me a break even point of much, much higher than 33%. Even at games over 50%, the profits weren't anywhere near what I'd hoped they'd be (or else, frankly, I wouldn't be writing this post). Anyway, I only know of one book that hasn't taken action to eliminate correlated parlays, although a couple books usually forget the first weekend or two of a new season. But don't despair, there's still a way to use the correlated parlay idea for profit that hasn't yet been noticed by most sites, but obviously, I don't want to write it out in public. Private message me and I'll show you how your good instincts can be made profitable. I may even give you my correlation data research, complete with breakdowns by %, bustup percentages for over/dog and under/fave in each category, and strategies for how best to deal with each situation. Oh, and don't worry if it takes me a long time to get back to you; I come to this site only infrequently. Good luck out there.