Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 18-15-0 +11.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 228-259-4 +50.86 Units
NY Yankees –1 +1.05 over Texas
The Rangers blew a huge opportunity last night in the disastrous eighth inning and if nothing else, that horrible loss had to take a whole lot of steam out of them. That’s a tough loss to rebound back from and chances are they won’t. Colby Lewis famously got his foundering career on track pitching in Japan then returned to help the Rangers with sterling results in 32 starts. He relied on a 57%-27% fastball/slider mix this season, and skewed a little to the flyball side, not optimal facing the slugging Yanks lineup in this HR-friendly ballpark. He did not face New York this season, but in limited plate appearances by Yankee hitters, Lewis has a shaky control rate (4.2 bb/9) and surrendered a .786 OPS, including two HR by Derek Jeter. The Yanks, meanwhile, after a very poor outing by CC Sabathia, give the ball to Phil Hughes. Hughes had a great outing in Game Three against MIN and was flipped into this game (Andy Pettitte flopping to Game Three) because Hughes was more effective on the road than at home, especially at keeping the ball over the plate – and in the park. Hughes didn’t see the Rangers this year, but his career against current Texas hitters has been outstanding. In limited plate appearances, he has held the Rangers to a .079 BA and .257 OPS, with no jacks, by far the best marks among Yankee pitchers. But for the Rangers to right their suddenly sinking vessel, they’ll need to rebound in two areas that seemed like strengths, their bullpen and their baserunning. Oh, and Ron Washington managed the game like an idiot. RHP Darren O’Day and LHP Darren Oliver, were worse than useless. Oliver nibbled around the edges to issue two straight walks, then O’Day gave up a two-RBI hit to 3B Alex Rodriguez on the first pitch, then LHP Clay Repada – freshly activated for the series – gave up an RBI hit to 2B Robinson Cano, also on the first pitch, then Derek Holland gave up an RBI hit to Marcus Thames. And each of these pitchers was supposedly taking advantage of a platoon split. This is where Washington’s managerial decisions look questionable at best. He brought in the lefty Oliver not to face left-handed hitters, against whom he has a substantial advantage, but to face two switch-hitters, Swisher and Teixeira. This had the effect of letting those two guys hit right-handed. But both of them were substantially better at reaching base this season as RH hitters Note that Swisher’s OBP as a RHH was 84 points higher than as a LHH, and Teixeira’s was 71 points higher. Other analysts will make the point that an inning spiraling out of control – runs in, the heart of the order due, and more runners aboard - is exactly the high-leverage situation crying out for the manager to bring in his best reliever. But Nefti Feliz never got off his butt. Later, though, the “no excuses” file should have an additional sheet for Ian Kinsler, who worked a walk off Kerry Wood, then got picked off. There might be 9000 different ways to play that situation for a baserunner, but number one is: DON’T GET PICKED OFF! But here, again, we have to wonder about Washington’s decision-making, if indeed he called on Kinsler to steal. Wood had by that point thrown six pitches, five of them outside the strike zone. The Rangers should have given Wood the opportunity to be wild throughout the inning. Ron Washington did not shine in Game One and now the Rangers are at a big disadvantage everywhere. Suddenly, the relievers are fragile, the manager is fragile and no team is better at sniffing out a kill then the Yanks. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1 +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 18-15-0 +11.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 228-259-4 +50.86 Units
NY Yankees –1 +1.05 over Texas
The Rangers blew a huge opportunity last night in the disastrous eighth inning and if nothing else, that horrible loss had to take a whole lot of steam out of them. That’s a tough loss to rebound back from and chances are they won’t. Colby Lewis famously got his foundering career on track pitching in Japan then returned to help the Rangers with sterling results in 32 starts. He relied on a 57%-27% fastball/slider mix this season, and skewed a little to the flyball side, not optimal facing the slugging Yanks lineup in this HR-friendly ballpark. He did not face New York this season, but in limited plate appearances by Yankee hitters, Lewis has a shaky control rate (4.2 bb/9) and surrendered a .786 OPS, including two HR by Derek Jeter. The Yanks, meanwhile, after a very poor outing by CC Sabathia, give the ball to Phil Hughes. Hughes had a great outing in Game Three against MIN and was flipped into this game (Andy Pettitte flopping to Game Three) because Hughes was more effective on the road than at home, especially at keeping the ball over the plate – and in the park. Hughes didn’t see the Rangers this year, but his career against current Texas hitters has been outstanding. In limited plate appearances, he has held the Rangers to a .079 BA and .257 OPS, with no jacks, by far the best marks among Yankee pitchers. But for the Rangers to right their suddenly sinking vessel, they’ll need to rebound in two areas that seemed like strengths, their bullpen and their baserunning. Oh, and Ron Washington managed the game like an idiot. RHP Darren O’Day and LHP Darren Oliver, were worse than useless. Oliver nibbled around the edges to issue two straight walks, then O’Day gave up a two-RBI hit to 3B Alex Rodriguez on the first pitch, then LHP Clay Repada – freshly activated for the series – gave up an RBI hit to 2B Robinson Cano, also on the first pitch, then Derek Holland gave up an RBI hit to Marcus Thames. And each of these pitchers was supposedly taking advantage of a platoon split. This is where Washington’s managerial decisions look questionable at best. He brought in the lefty Oliver not to face left-handed hitters, against whom he has a substantial advantage, but to face two switch-hitters, Swisher and Teixeira. This had the effect of letting those two guys hit right-handed. But both of them were substantially better at reaching base this season as RH hitters Note that Swisher’s OBP as a RHH was 84 points higher than as a LHH, and Teixeira’s was 71 points higher. Other analysts will make the point that an inning spiraling out of control – runs in, the heart of the order due, and more runners aboard - is exactly the high-leverage situation crying out for the manager to bring in his best reliever. But Nefti Feliz never got off his butt. Later, though, the “no excuses” file should have an additional sheet for Ian Kinsler, who worked a walk off Kerry Wood, then got picked off. There might be 9000 different ways to play that situation for a baserunner, but number one is: DON’T GET PICKED OFF! But here, again, we have to wonder about Washington’s decision-making, if indeed he called on Kinsler to steal. Wood had by that point thrown six pitches, five of them outside the strike zone. The Rangers should have given Wood the opportunity to be wild throughout the inning. Ron Washington did not shine in Game One and now the Rangers are at a big disadvantage everywhere. Suddenly, the relievers are fragile, the manager is fragile and no team is better at sniffing out a kill then the Yanks. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1 +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
