This whole week has been pretty much up and down for me. UDubb costing me a great day on Saturday, Broncos costing me a great day on Sunday, and the Jaguars game hurting a lot. I feel that it's time to bounce back today with these two MLB plays. The plays look a little "square" but sometimes the "square" side works.
Phillies vs. Giants
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Phillies -111
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 6.5
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 3 - Giants 2
Before I cap the game, let me give a warning to people who are the Phillies run line. The Phillies run line has been VERY profitable in the postseason, going an amazing 5-1. The only game that didn't work, the Phillies lost straight up. Usually run lines are not the way to make money in baseball (reverse run lines are my favorite) but they seem to be working great with the Phillies. I think this definitely comes to an end in a close ball game. Hamels should come out and pitch well enough to get the win in a low scoring game. The Giants stole the first game and I'm sure the fans in SF will be fired up for this one. Let me mention something about SF fans though. No one roots for the Giants in the regular season, but now the whole SF Bay Area is going crazy over the Giants. Reminds me of what happen when the Sharks are in the postseason. Nonetheless, percentages are heavily on the Phillies today. Over 80 percent are on the run line while 70 percent are on the money line. In MLB, I feel that the general betting percentages do not matter much. Take the Phillies with Hamels on the mound today at -111, but please fade the run line.
Rangers vs. Yankees
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Yankees (-144) **Taking the Runline though**
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Under 9.5
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5 - Rangers 3
My general rule of thumb on MLB betting is not to get "juiced" out. Many professional handicappers can make a good living off baseball going less than 45 percent. The reason is that they do not ever pay top dollar for any teams. There is really no reason to pay -144 juice on AJ Burnett. I know many people think the Yankees can not drop 2 in a row in the playoffs at Yankee Stadium, but trust me, this is not a wise investment. The Yankees should win this game, but why would you ever risk 1.44 odds on them? The Over 9.5 looks like the "trendy" pick as overs have been 4-0 so far in the Divisional Series. Look for the under to hit in this game as both "shaky" pitchers will actually pitch pretty decent. I'm personally going to hit the under harder than I hit the Yankee run line today. Risking 4 units on the Yankees under and 2.5 units on the Yankees run line today. Yankees should tie up the series today, but I would never bet -144 on them in this situation. Run line is a much safer bet for the buck.
Phillies vs. Giants
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Phillies -111
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 6.5
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 3 - Giants 2
Before I cap the game, let me give a warning to people who are the Phillies run line. The Phillies run line has been VERY profitable in the postseason, going an amazing 5-1. The only game that didn't work, the Phillies lost straight up. Usually run lines are not the way to make money in baseball (reverse run lines are my favorite) but they seem to be working great with the Phillies. I think this definitely comes to an end in a close ball game. Hamels should come out and pitch well enough to get the win in a low scoring game. The Giants stole the first game and I'm sure the fans in SF will be fired up for this one. Let me mention something about SF fans though. No one roots for the Giants in the regular season, but now the whole SF Bay Area is going crazy over the Giants. Reminds me of what happen when the Sharks are in the postseason. Nonetheless, percentages are heavily on the Phillies today. Over 80 percent are on the run line while 70 percent are on the money line. In MLB, I feel that the general betting percentages do not matter much. Take the Phillies with Hamels on the mound today at -111, but please fade the run line.
Rangers vs. Yankees
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Yankees (-144) **Taking the Runline though**
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Under 9.5
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5 - Rangers 3
My general rule of thumb on MLB betting is not to get "juiced" out. Many professional handicappers can make a good living off baseball going less than 45 percent. The reason is that they do not ever pay top dollar for any teams. There is really no reason to pay -144 juice on AJ Burnett. I know many people think the Yankees can not drop 2 in a row in the playoffs at Yankee Stadium, but trust me, this is not a wise investment. The Yankees should win this game, but why would you ever risk 1.44 odds on them? The Over 9.5 looks like the "trendy" pick as overs have been 4-0 so far in the Divisional Series. Look for the under to hit in this game as both "shaky" pitchers will actually pitch pretty decent. I'm personally going to hit the under harder than I hit the Yankee run line today. Risking 4 units on the Yankees under and 2.5 units on the Yankees run line today. Yankees should tie up the series today, but I would never bet -144 on them in this situation. Run line is a much safer bet for the buck.
