Nba road system 2010 - 11

tony1 · Oct 19, 2010

NBA ROAD SYSTEM .... HALVES/ATS ....2010 -11

This will be my 8th year with the nba road system ... halves/ats. The record for the previous 7 seasons .....734 series wins and 6 losses.

2009-10......125 series wins and 1 loss
2008- 09 ... 127 series wins and 1 loss
2007- 08 ... 90 series wins and 2 losses
2006- 07... 83 series wins and 1 loss
2005- 06 ... 108 series wins and 1 loss
2004- 05 ... 99 series wins and 0 loss
2003- 04 ... 102 series wins and 0 loss

Review of the system: We are betting that a road team can not cover every half of the last 3 games of a road trip and you must commit 150 to 200 units and be willing to put up nearly half on any one play and if you are not willing to risk it then forget it.

I have mentioned several times in the past that this type of wagering is not for everyone and you need the right mindset to do this. I have said in jest that you do not have to be insane to do this but it could help!!!

THE NEXT POST: EXPLANATION REVISTED FOR 2010 - 2011

tony1 · Oct 19, 2010

NBA ROAD SYSTEM .... HALVES / ATS
(EXPLANATION REVISTED FOR 2010 - 11)

THE PLAN: The idea of the nba road system (halves/ats) is to play against a road team that is out of its comfort zone and with the fatigue factor to consider, so we play up to the last 6 halves of a 3 or more games road trip. Stop the series when a cover is made by the home team. Find your best line for the first half and if the first half loses bet at half-time for the 2nd half.Betting progression: To win one unit... double bet plus juice until it covers. See below for more details.

RULES FOR THE ROAD SYSTEM WITH HALVES (ATS)

1. Bet against the road team (ats) on a road trip of three or more games.
2. Play up to the LAST 3 games of a road series until a cover is made. Of course on a 3 game road trip it would all 3 games.
3. Find your best line for the first half and if it does not cover place your bet at half-time for the second half for the second play of the series. If there is still a no cover after two plays, your third play would be the first half of the second game of the series and etc.
4.Betting progression: the goal is to win one unit. (see below for more details)
5. Any series that starts before the christmas break must conclude by dec. 22 or it is a no play.
6. Series games must be 3 games or less between games or the series is a no play.
7. NO PLAYS THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE SEASON.
8. Optional: If a home team is favored by 5 points or more for the first half of game one, the series is eliminated.
9. The main problem with this system: You must be available to make half-time wagers.

* 6 game series ... start with the 4th game of the series
* 5 game series ... start with the 3rd game of the series
* 4 game series ... start with the 2nd game of the series
* 3 game series ... start with the 1st game of the series

BETTING PROGRESSION TO WIN ONE UNIT (based on -110)

First play .......... risk 1.1 to win 1.0
Second play .... risk 2.3 to win 2.1
Third play ......... risk 4.85 to win 4.41
Fourth play ...... risk 10.2 to win 9.26
Fifth play .......... risk 21.4 to win 19.46
Sixth play ......... ????????

EXAMPLE SERIES: ATL @ LAC, GS, PHO

1st play: atl @ lac (1st half) risk 1.1 to win 1.0 ........ results - loss
2nd play: atl @ lac (2nd half) risk 2.3 to win 2.1 ...... results - loss
3rd play: atl @ gs (1st half) risk 4.85 to win 4.41 .... results - win

The series ends with a cover on the 3rd play for 1 unit won.

Comments: I will post the schedule for Nov in a few days.

tony1 · Oct 22, 2010

Nba road system
halves / ats
nov 2010

lac @ ut(11/6), no (11/9), sac (11/10)

den @ dal(11/6), chi (11/8), ind (11/9)

mn @ hou (11/7), lal (11/9), sac (11/10)

bos @ dal (11/8), mia (11/11), mem (11/13)

gs @ ny (11/10), chi (11/11), mil (11/13)

ut @ orl (11/10), atl (11/12), cha (11/13)

hou @ wa (11/10), ind (11/12), ny (11/14)

phi @ dal (11/12), sa (11/13), cle (11/16)

det @ lac (11/12), sac (11/14), gs (11/15)

por @ okc (11/12), no (11/13), mem (11/16)

tor @ mia (11/13), wa (11/16), phi (11/17)

lal @ mil (11/16), det (11/17), mn (11/19)

nj @ ut (11/17), sac (11/19), den (11/20)

ny @ sac (11/17), gs (11/19), lac (11/20)

pho @ orl (11/18), cha (11/20), hou (11/22)

cle @ no (11/19), sa (11/20), ind (11/23)

no @ lac (11/22), ut (11/24), por (11/26)

phi @ wa (11/23), tor (11/24), mia (11/26)

chi @ pho (11/24), den (11/26), sac (11/27)

gs @ hou (11/24), mem (11/26), mn (11/27)

sa @ no (11/28), gs (11/30), lac (12/1)

por @ phi (11/30), bos (12/1)wa (12/3)

ind @ sac (11/30), ut (12/1), pho (12/3)

CalvinTy · Oct 23, 2010

tony1,

I have not been on theRX that much due to family obligations... but wow, I'm happy to see that you are continuing with the system. I can't recall which season it was when I helped you for a few months as you were away from the forum, perhaps 2006-2007.

I'll keep an eye on this thread for the rest of the season!

Good luck!

* CalvinTy

tony1 · Oct 26, 2010

LIMITED BETTING PROGRESSION: (OPTIONAL)

The idea is to reduce risk and stress with the potential to win more units.

Limited betting progression #1 (based -110)

#1...1st half game 1...... risk 1.1 to win 1.0 unit
#2...2nd half game 1......risk 2.3 to win 2.1 units (net 1.0 unit)
#3...1st half game 2.......risk 4.85 to win 4.41 units (net 1.0 unit)
(if no cover after the first 3 plays / win 2 of the next 3 plays)
#4..2nd half game 2.......risk 6.6 to win 6.0 units
#5..1st half game 3.......risk 8.8 to win 8.0 units
#6..2nd half game 3......risk 13.2 to win 12.0 units

*** covering the 4th & 5th plays (net 5.75 units)
***covering the 4th & 6th plays (net 1.0 unit)
***covering the 5th & 6th plays (net 5.15 units)

Comments: If no cover is made thru 6 plays, your loss of units is reduced more than half compared to the standard betting progression method. If a cover is made on the 4th play, you can stop with a 2.25 unit loss or continue with the progression and profit by covering one of the next 2 plays. Last season 119 series out of 126 were completed by the 4th play of the series for 95%.

fadethepublic1 · Oct 26, 2010

much respect and appreciation for continuing to post this successful system.

apwmel · Oct 26, 2010

That one loss last season was on Philly. They lost every game but covered all 6 halves. I don't see that happening this season. Let's all make some money with good money management.

califcc · Oct 26, 2010

Tony,
For the Limited Betting Progression, do you have any stats on whether the 5th or 6th leg hits if there was a 4th leg cover?

califcc · Oct 26, 2010

There is also the scenario that you cover on 5th play and then lose 6th play, which results in 20.05 unit loss.

tony1 · Oct 27, 2010

Schedule correction: (first series)

lac @ sa (11/10)

Vegas83 · Nov 1, 2010

Tony why wouldn't Toronto qualify for a play starting 11/3 as they are on a 4 game trip starting 11/1
11/01/10 Mon@ Sacramento 11/03/10 Wed@ Utah 11/05/10 Fri@ L.A. Lakers 11/06/10 Sat@ Portland

Did I miss something?

tony1 · Nov 1, 2010

Vegas83 said:
Tony why wouldn't Toronto qualify for a play starting 11/3 as they are on a 4 game trip starting 11/1
11/01/10 Mon@ Sacramento 11/03/10 Wed@ Utah 11/05/10 Fri@ L.A. Lakers 11/06/10 Sat@ Portland

Did I miss something?

See post #2, rule #7.

jrob · Nov 2, 2010

Tony - followed this last year & looking forward to it again. Question on the proposed limited betting progression - 119 out of 126 means only 6% of plays went to the 5th or 6th bet last season. Any stats on how many of those 7 series hit the 4th & 5th, 4th & 6th, or 5th & 6th play?

tony1 · Nov 2, 2010

jrob said:
Tony - followed this last year & looking forward to it again. Question on the proposed limited betting progression - 119 out of 126 means only 6% of plays went to the 5th or 6th bet last season. Any stats on how many of those 7 series hit the 4th & 5th, 4th & 6th, or 5th & 6th play?

HALVES / ATS / 2009-10
SERIES RECORD 125 - 1
PENDING: 0
TOTAL UNITS +85.15

SUMMARY:

1ST PLAY OF SERIES.........45
2ND PLAY OF SERIES........45
3RD PLAY OF SERIES........20
4TH PLAY OF SERIES.........9
5TH PLAY OF SERIES.........3
6TH PLAY OF SERIES.........3
LOSS..................................1 (5 play loss)

tony1 · Nov 5, 2010

The nba road system / halves / ats starts tomorrow (nov 6) with 2 series...

#1 LAC @ UT (FIRST HALF WITH UT TO COVER) If UT does not cover, your 2nd play of the series is UT to cover the 2nd half.

#2 DEN @ DAL...

SET-UP... THE FIRST 2 POSTS OF THIS THREAD EXPLAINS THIS SYSTEM PLUS I HAVE FURNISHED THE SCHEDULE FOR NOVEMBER, other months to follow.

VERIFICATION OF LINES: We will use vegas insider ... line movement ... offshore. The best closing line from the list of offshore books listed for the first half and the opening line for the second half. Although at times my actual line may differ, this is done to prevent any accusations of false lines.

IMPORTANT: REVIEW THIS THREAD CAREFULLY BECAUSE THIS TYPE OF WAGERING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE!

jrob · Nov 5, 2010

Tony,
Sorry for another question. Thanks for posting those stats.

What I mean is that if we follow the limited bet progression, and the 4th play hits (at a 2.25 unit loss), are there stats to whether or not the 5th or 6th play covers after the 4th has? Because, I think the stats posted are only for when the first cover is made, so while 9 plays last year covered on the 4th play, there are no stats as to whether the 5th or 6th would've covered after the 4th covering if someone was following the limited bet progression...

Just trying to decide whether to use the original martingale system or the limited progression. I followed this last year using the original bet format, so just curious as to if the limited progression would have a real benefit.

Thanks for all your help & posting - jrob

tony1 · Nov 5, 2010

jrob said:
Tony,
Sorry for another question. Thanks for posting those stats.

What I mean is that if we follow the limited bet progression, and the 4th play hits (at a 2.25 unit loss), are there stats to whether or not the 5th or 6th play covers after the 4th has? Because, I think the stats posted are only for when the first cover is made, so while 9 plays last year covered on the 4th play, there are no stats as to whether the 5th or 6th would've covered after the 4th covering if someone was following the limited bet progression...

Just trying to decide whether to use the original martingale system or the limited progression. I followed this last year using the original bet format, so just curious as to if the limited progression would have a real benefit.

Thanks for all your help & posting - jrob

JROB...

Since my stats are based on the standard progression, I would not have those stats for you. The reason for the limited progession method was to limit risk especially when a series goes to 6 games. I could have presented other limited progressions ideas but I decided with this one because the fatique factor should be at its highest point the last 3 halves of a series giving you a better chance of covering 2 out 3 halves.

tony1 · Nov 6, 2010

This season I added rule #8 but it is OPTIONAL (see post #2). The first game on the schedule could qualify for this option, the decision is yours. My updates will show it both ways.

dlunc3 · Nov 7, 2010

Hey Tony... looking forward to following you again this yr! Quick question, of you 6 losses in the past 6 years, do you know how many of the losses would have been avoided with your new #8 rule?

Vegas83 · Nov 7, 2010

Whats the update from last night missed out on the plays and did not know the 2nd half lines.

Nba road system 2010 - 11

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