NoSweat - Giants/Phillies Game 6 Analysis - Taking the Over In This Game

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Hey guys,
Had a good day yesterday with the Rangers Reverse Run line. Let's continue the MLB winning streak today. Best of luck all!

Giants vs. Phillies
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Phillies -160
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Over 7
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 6 - Giants 5
Last game, I pounded the Doc at a No Sweat Rating of 5. I figured if that worked, the Phillies would have all the momentum back in Philly and would come back and win the series. The problem is that the Phillies are laying a lot of chalk today at home. -160 in a do or die game is a little too high for my taste, and I never bet on games with a moneyline higher than -130. Therefore, the play on this game is either the Over or the Phillies -1.5 (+140). The problem with the Phillies -1.5, is that the run line has WORKED every game that the Phillies worked. I think that the Giants will rally in the 9th to almost tie up the game, but fall a run too short. Therefore, I think that the Phillies run line backers may get screwed in the 9th inning. That leaves us the over of 7. I don't think Oswalt has a shutdown game as he did in Game 2. I also don't think he will be as rusty as he looked in the 9th inning two games ago. I think both him and Sanchez will get knocked around a little bit, sending this game over by the 6th inning. Therefore, the only play I will be making on this game is the Over 7. The Phillies should win, but I will be fading the runline and I do not give up that much juice. Anyway, there are some SOLID games in college football, so its better to spread around the action today.
 

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