Just made (2) plays I thought were impossible...

mastermaybe · Oct 27, 2010

...impossible through the same book anyway.

Ok, I can understand online books not allowing you to play both sides of a contest to avoid fraudulently running up sums/plays to gain bonuses, but look what I did:

2 unit play on the TEX RL @ +140

2 unit play on the SF ML @ +120

So, outside of a 1 run TEX win, there's no way I can lose.

Is this shady? My online book let both wagers go through, and I'd think there'd be some default blocks in place to disallow wagering on opposing teams.

Seems to me a high-roller could stand to take a nice payout with this methodology, I'm a Dollar player though, so this was more of an experiement.

Would like to hear some thoughts/somethig I may be missing.

Obviously I could pull this off using two books...

thanks,
James

2ese · Oct 27, 2010

since over 30% of baseball games are 1 run games this is probably the books favorite bet u win at best 40 twice to each time u loose 260

mastermaybe · Oct 27, 2010

Ok, but I'm covered on 50% of the one run decisions, which is the imperative distinction here, IMO. And the best outcome here on a $200 play both sides would be a $80 profit on a TEX RL win, not 40, that's big too. And of course the worst case scenario is I drop $400, not $260.

So this play needs to pop 5 to 1 to be even on the RL side, 10 to 1 to break even on the ML side.

Raw numbers would point to a 88/12 win % for me (one run games have been about 27% over the last 5 years)...nearly 8-1.

No? To me the huge difference here is the cover on one side of the one run outcomes.

James

mastermaybe · Oct 27, 2010

that's 86/14, or 6.5 to 1. Prolly a better play in high scoring games, to be sure.

James

billsfan · Oct 27, 2010

You will never win in the long run doing this......and this game has all the makings of a one run game.

billsfan · Oct 27, 2010

mastermaybe said:
...impossible through the same book anyway.

Ok, I can understand online books not allowing you to play both sides of a contest to avoid fraudulently running up sums/plays to gain bonuses, but look what I did:

2 unit play on the TEX RL @ +140

2 unit play on the SF ML @ +120

So, outside of a 1 run TEX win, there's no way I can lose.

Is this shady? My online book let both wagers go through, and I'd think there'd be some default blocks in place to disallow wagering on opposing teams.

Seems to me a high-roller could stand to take a nice payout with this methodology, I'm a Dollar player though, so this was more of an experiement.

Would like to hear some thoughts/somethig I may be missing.

Obviously I could pull this off using two books...

thanks,
James

You're not missing anything.....Try doing it for a whole year, and tell me how you make out........

mastermaybe · Oct 27, 2010

^ of course the very odds I laid out describe that you will not "make out" in the long run (assuming one run games continue at a comparable clip). The play could however be an interesting one in a high scoring contest...in games where 10 runs or more are scored for instance, one run games are ~10%. And in a scheme like this where you are again, turning 50% of the those one-run outcomes into wins, it would likely be interesting over the long-haul.

Interestingly enough...the odds of THIS game being decided by one run are are not terribly great...about 1:3. Yes, playoff games are actually historically, decided LESS often by one run than reg season contests, even with superior pitching.

Of course the fly in the ointment are the incremental profits, NOT that there are loads of games decided by a single run.

I didn't propose this was money in the bank, just that I'm a bit surprised that books would allow this both-side play altogether.

James

reservoirdog · Oct 27, 2010

Looking at these 2 teams in the regular season SF lost by 1 run 23X and TX won by 1 run 28X so 51 L @ $260 = -$13260 & 273 W @ $30 avg = + $8190

Not a good proposition

mastermaybe · Oct 27, 2010

BTW: in this year's playoffs, 7 of the 27 games were decided by one run, and FOUR of them were in the 4 game ATL/SF Divisional Series where all four games were one-run decisions!

There were only 3 more one-run games in the next 5 SERIES.

James

mastermaybe · Oct 27, 2010

reservoirdog said:
Looking at these 2 teams in the regular season SF lost by 1 run 23X and TX won by 1 run 28X so 51 L @ $260 = -$13260 & 273 W @ $30 avg = + $8190

Not a good proposition

The above doesn't nearly account for both events needing to occur simultaneously, which is absolutely crucial in determing the outcome.

And again, the only loss outcome is either $200 or $400, depending upon a 1 or 2 unit play on both wagers. $260 is an impossible occurence. Just working off a (1) unit play, your losses are already down to $10,200, not $13,260...this again is not consdiering the necessity of a (2) event, simultaneous occurence. You simply cannot take the SF one run losses and TEX one run wins and add them together.

James

Prof.Hinsley · Oct 27, 2010

Hope you win on the SF ML! Good luck to you.

mastermaybe · Oct 27, 2010

Won't be much of a "win", lol, but thanks. I'm of course assuming you have ML much larger, so GL!

James

reservoirdog · Oct 27, 2010

mastermaybe said:
The above doesn't nearly account for both events needing to occur simultaneously, which is absolutely crucial in determing the outcome.

And again, the only loss outcome is either $200 or $400, depending upon a 1 or 2 unit play on both wagers. $260 is an impossible occurence. Just working off a (1) unit play, your losses are already down to $10,200, not $13,260...this again is not consdiering the necessity of a (2) event, simultaneous occurence. You simply cannot take the SF one run losses and TEX one run wins and add them together.

James

My mistake on the $260 loss of course it is $200.

On the average you win $30 compared to losing $200, so you have to win about 7 out of 8 occurances or 88% of the time. Does not sound like a good proposition to me.

BOL

HawkerJimbo73 · Oct 27, 2010

I actually followed something like this last season on a spreadsheet, not for real money. After 2 months, I would have been down a TON of money. This is not the way to go long-term. That said, hope you win tonight, but I don't recommend ever doing it again.

mastermaybe · Oct 27, 2010

Again folks, this is a play for games anticipated to be high scoring, where the one run margin of victories are literally cut in half.

A "ton" (in this case anyway) is a relative term. But, based upon the last ten years or so, if you played EVERY game, you would definitely be down.

Good points though, thanks all.

James

r.a. · Oct 27, 2010

2ese said:
since over 30% of baseball games are 1 run games this is probably the books favorite bet u win at best 40 twice to each time u loose 260

I think that 30% figure, of one run games, goes up when there is a dh in play.

mastermaybe · Oct 27, 2010

It actually is higher overall with lower-scoring games, so I'd imagine that it actually goes down in those (DH games), assuming there's more runs scored (although I'm not positive, specifically re the DH games).

Be interesting to know.

James

mastermaybe · Oct 28, 2010

Well, so much for the one run game.

Still, no interest in playing this again anytime soon.

James

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