http://www.leaderpost.com/sports/Burns+odds/3744847/story.html
Burns is an odds guy
By Cory Wolfe, Saskatchewan News Network; Postmedia NewsOctober 29, 2010
As a regular feature, StarPhoenix reporter Cory Wolfe gets personal with a sports figure. Today, Bodog.ca sportsbook manager Adam Burns gets cornered.
Wolfe: You oversee all of the betting lines for Bodog.ca. In early October, the Toronto Maple Leafs were 60-1 underdogs to win the Stanley Cup. How much did their 4-0 start make you sweat?
Burns: I think we started them at 65-1, actually, and we took a lot of money on them, especially from people in the Toronto area. They were betting their favourite team. When (the Leafs) started 4-0, we started seeing some smarter money coming in on them at those odds. Now, I believe, they're at 30-1. Their odds dropped in half because of their start and they've actually been playing pretty well.
Wolfe: Yes, they have.
Burns: I guess we kind of underestimated them. I knew that they'd have a good, young team this year. For them to sustain that the whole season might be tough but we did take a lot of money on them and it forced us to drop their odds pretty much in half.
Wolfe: Name a sports upset that cost your company a lot of money.
Burns: A couple of years ago, when Tampa Bay made it to the World Series. A lot of people had bet them at the beginning of the year to win the AL and the World Series at over 100-1 odds. Pretty much all sportsbooks, but especially here, we took a beating on that one when they did make the World Series. If they would have won, it definitely would have been way worse.
Wolfe: Indications are that the Black Eyed Peas will be the Super Bowl halftime act. One of your online competitors is taking bets on whether or not Fergie will fall off the stage. That's not very sporting, is it?
Burns: No, we always put up some fun props surrounding big events or big stories in the media. But we always try to stay away from things that would actually affect a person's health. We do put up some strange props. ... Once (the act) is announced, we'll put up things like, 'What will be the first song they sing?'
Wolfe: You're a former high school math teacher. Was dealing with teenagers more or less stressful than being responsible for millions of dollars?
Burns: It's totally different. There's a lot of stress teaching because you're dealing with so many different people every day -- the students, their parents, other teachers and the administration of the school. Here, it's a little different in the sense that I'm dealing with only a few guys on my team, and I'm dealing with a lot of numbers. It's a different stress and a completely different kind of job. But I'll be honest, I love both of them.
Wolfe: Estimate how many hours per week you spend watching sports.
Burns: At least 10 hours a day. We've got six or seven TV screens up and three or four computer monitors in front of us. ... We're keeping track of all the updates on ESPN or TSN. If there are breaking stories, obviously some things can affect our odds. With Brett Favre, every week he's a big drama story. He's a bookmaker's nightmare because you're always trying to figure out what to do with the lines for his games. This week he's walking around with a big boot on his foot, saying he might not play. But chances are, he probably will play.
Wolfe: Speaking of Favre, Bodog is giving 2-1 odds that, by Dec. 31, he will publicly confess to sending photos to a New York game hostess. How's the action on that one?
Burns: Some people bet that he would. Last week, he did kind of, sort of admit to it, but not officially. Those ones are tough because any time we put up a prop with no actual stats behind it, we look at similar props we've put up in the past and how people bet it. ... If we think it's about 40 per cent that he will do it, then we'll put it up at 2-1. We translate those percentages into odds. Those ones are always tough to handicap but they're more for fun and they're for lower limits.
Wolfe: So, if I wanted to put down a hundred bucks on my belief that Brian Wilson -- the San Francisco Giants' closer -- has an awesome playoff beard, could you prove that one way or the other?
Burns: (Laughs) Well, we always try to put up things that we can actually grade.
Wolfe: Paul the prognosticating octopus died this week. Do you expect betting action to go down in the absence of such a trusted soothsayer?
Burns: Not at all. It was a good, cute story during the World Cup. I'm sure when the next Euro or World Cup comes up, there will be some other animal or two-year-old kid making these predictions.
Wolfe: OK, suppose that you're out driving with a buddy and something crazy happens in front of you. Maybe lightning strikes a tree or something. When your friend exclaims, "Wow! What are the odds of that?" do you immediately tell him?
Burns: Everything I look at, I'm kind of putting odds to, practising in my head. As far as lightning hitting a tree, I wouldn't know what the odds are but I'm sure there are some out there. The point is, any time I'm watching sports, I'm trying to calculate odds of what's going to happen next. ... My mind is always filled with odds and math and numbers.
Wolfe: Let's finish with a serious one. Complete the following sentence. If I had to put $100 on a pro team to win a championship this season, I would pick ------.
Burns: I try to stay away from making picks. I'm on the other side of this thing, so I don't want to give someone a pick and then they come back and say, 'The sportsbook manager said go bet this team,' and then they don't win. All I'll say is, any time you're betting, consider two things. First of all, do your research. And as the old saying goes, bet with your head and not with your heart.
© Copyright (c) The Regina Leader-Post
Burns is an odds guy
By Cory Wolfe, Saskatchewan News Network; Postmedia NewsOctober 29, 2010
As a regular feature, StarPhoenix reporter Cory Wolfe gets personal with a sports figure. Today, Bodog.ca sportsbook manager Adam Burns gets cornered.
Wolfe: You oversee all of the betting lines for Bodog.ca. In early October, the Toronto Maple Leafs were 60-1 underdogs to win the Stanley Cup. How much did their 4-0 start make you sweat?
Burns: I think we started them at 65-1, actually, and we took a lot of money on them, especially from people in the Toronto area. They were betting their favourite team. When (the Leafs) started 4-0, we started seeing some smarter money coming in on them at those odds. Now, I believe, they're at 30-1. Their odds dropped in half because of their start and they've actually been playing pretty well.
Wolfe: Yes, they have.
Burns: I guess we kind of underestimated them. I knew that they'd have a good, young team this year. For them to sustain that the whole season might be tough but we did take a lot of money on them and it forced us to drop their odds pretty much in half.
Wolfe: Name a sports upset that cost your company a lot of money.
Burns: A couple of years ago, when Tampa Bay made it to the World Series. A lot of people had bet them at the beginning of the year to win the AL and the World Series at over 100-1 odds. Pretty much all sportsbooks, but especially here, we took a beating on that one when they did make the World Series. If they would have won, it definitely would have been way worse.
Wolfe: Indications are that the Black Eyed Peas will be the Super Bowl halftime act. One of your online competitors is taking bets on whether or not Fergie will fall off the stage. That's not very sporting, is it?
Burns: No, we always put up some fun props surrounding big events or big stories in the media. But we always try to stay away from things that would actually affect a person's health. We do put up some strange props. ... Once (the act) is announced, we'll put up things like, 'What will be the first song they sing?'
Wolfe: You're a former high school math teacher. Was dealing with teenagers more or less stressful than being responsible for millions of dollars?
Burns: It's totally different. There's a lot of stress teaching because you're dealing with so many different people every day -- the students, their parents, other teachers and the administration of the school. Here, it's a little different in the sense that I'm dealing with only a few guys on my team, and I'm dealing with a lot of numbers. It's a different stress and a completely different kind of job. But I'll be honest, I love both of them.
Wolfe: Estimate how many hours per week you spend watching sports.
Burns: At least 10 hours a day. We've got six or seven TV screens up and three or four computer monitors in front of us. ... We're keeping track of all the updates on ESPN or TSN. If there are breaking stories, obviously some things can affect our odds. With Brett Favre, every week he's a big drama story. He's a bookmaker's nightmare because you're always trying to figure out what to do with the lines for his games. This week he's walking around with a big boot on his foot, saying he might not play. But chances are, he probably will play.
Wolfe: Speaking of Favre, Bodog is giving 2-1 odds that, by Dec. 31, he will publicly confess to sending photos to a New York game hostess. How's the action on that one?
Burns: Some people bet that he would. Last week, he did kind of, sort of admit to it, but not officially. Those ones are tough because any time we put up a prop with no actual stats behind it, we look at similar props we've put up in the past and how people bet it. ... If we think it's about 40 per cent that he will do it, then we'll put it up at 2-1. We translate those percentages into odds. Those ones are always tough to handicap but they're more for fun and they're for lower limits.
Wolfe: So, if I wanted to put down a hundred bucks on my belief that Brian Wilson -- the San Francisco Giants' closer -- has an awesome playoff beard, could you prove that one way or the other?
Burns: (Laughs) Well, we always try to put up things that we can actually grade.
Wolfe: Paul the prognosticating octopus died this week. Do you expect betting action to go down in the absence of such a trusted soothsayer?
Burns: Not at all. It was a good, cute story during the World Cup. I'm sure when the next Euro or World Cup comes up, there will be some other animal or two-year-old kid making these predictions.
Wolfe: OK, suppose that you're out driving with a buddy and something crazy happens in front of you. Maybe lightning strikes a tree or something. When your friend exclaims, "Wow! What are the odds of that?" do you immediately tell him?
Burns: Everything I look at, I'm kind of putting odds to, practising in my head. As far as lightning hitting a tree, I wouldn't know what the odds are but I'm sure there are some out there. The point is, any time I'm watching sports, I'm trying to calculate odds of what's going to happen next. ... My mind is always filled with odds and math and numbers.
Wolfe: Let's finish with a serious one. Complete the following sentence. If I had to put $100 on a pro team to win a championship this season, I would pick ------.
Burns: I try to stay away from making picks. I'm on the other side of this thing, so I don't want to give someone a pick and then they come back and say, 'The sportsbook manager said go bet this team,' and then they don't win. All I'll say is, any time you're betting, consider two things. First of all, do your research. And as the old saying goes, bet with your head and not with your heart.
© Copyright (c) The Regina Leader-Post
