game 3 w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

Game 3 (SF leads, 2-0)
San Francisco +1.54 over TEXAS
The Giants are doing everything better than the Rangers and when you throw in the experience factor, the way they execute in close games and the big managerial edge, how can you not take this tag? Nobody on Texas has stepped up and besides being in a big hole you might see them individually pressing a bit. Then there’s the bullpen, where nobody wants to hear his name called. The Rangers bullpen has been miserable, allowing 11 ER in 4.1 IP. Colby Lewis has come a long way since leaving Hiroshima at the end of last season. He will try to right the Rangers' ship here and outside of Cliff Lee, he's the Rangers best hope. His 1.45 ERA in the playoffs is a bit deceiving--fueled by a 24% hit rate and 87% strand rate. He's walked 11 hitters in 18.2 innings (although he has struck out 18). A ton of pressure is on his shoulders because if he loses this one the Series is over. Jonathan Sanchez grew into his arm in 2010, with a 3.07 ERA and 3.94 xERA. He's pitched well in the playoffs, too, with a 2.93 ERA. However, in his last start (Game 6 of the NLCS), he lasted but two innings, allowing three hits, two walks, and two runs. He got the quick hook from manager Bruce Bochy as he just didn't look right--he threw 50 pitches to the 12 hitters he faced, and only 24 of them were for strikes (48%). That was a far cry from the 64% of pitches he threw for strikes in Game 2 of the series and that’s one of the reasons why Bochy is so much better than Ron Washington. Washington has no clue when to pull his guy or what line-up to go with. Anyway, Sanchez has wicked stuff and in fact, he was the toughest pitcher in the majors to get a hit off of. His BAA this season was .204 and in the postseason it’s even lower at .182. He also had 205 K’s in 193 IP. The knock on Sanchez is his control. If he’s throwing strikes he’s as tough as they come. You can expect the Rangers to take some early pitches to see if Sanchez is on or off but that’s not a given either. Washington might have them go up there swinging.

The Rangers had only four hits in Game 2 and never mounted a serious threat in the game. Game 3 should see a couple of changes: Jeff Francouer (.805 vs. LHP) should get the start in RF, and Bengie Molina (.762 OPS vs. LHP) would be the logical choice at catcher. Jeff Francoeur has a career .268 OPS against Sanchez in 14 PA, although manager Ron Washington has to be looking for a way to shake up the lineup anyway, so he's likely to start. Jorge Cantu, who has 44-point higher OPS vs LHP, could replace Moreland at 1B, but Moreland has been one of the bright spots for the Rangers. Vladimir Guerrero is expected to resume his DH role. The Giants' hitter with the worst split against RHP is Cody Ross, who is not coming out of the lineup. Pablo Sandoval could step in for Renteria but Bochy will likely stand with the lineup that's produced 20 runs in two games. Think 20 runs in two games is unlikely for the Giants? This is the fifth time this season they've done it. Play: San Francisco +1.54 (Risking 2 units).
 

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