Should I really get out of my 403B plan?

TheWolf · Nov 16, 2010

I've heard the Schiffs, Celentes, Chapmans, Jones', etc tell us to get out, but when Glen Beck is on national TV saying it......well, I think it may be time to listen.

I honestly dont know what to do..........this is my retirement account. I started it in 1999, and well, yep you guessed it......there is less money in there now than I have put in over 11 years time!!!!!!!!!

In the Summer, fearing another huge market downturn like in 1998, I rolled it into a fixed account for now.

I actually thought about borrowing against it to buy more gold and silver.

Thoughts?

eek. · Nov 16, 2010

So is it currently a fixed interest current account, in cash.

A kinda T-bill account

TheWolf · Nov 16, 2010

I believe so eek.

SmallDaddy · Nov 16, 2010

Unless you wanna quit the market for good, I'd say keep going with it. Dont try to time the market cause you will underperform it. You will miss the buying opportunites when its low but catch most of the crashes.

Go foreign markets, like Brazil, Australia, India, etc. MLPS, telecoms, utilities

And when US stocks crash you bargain hunt

CoachCB · Nov 16, 2010

I think you'd be foolish to get out.

2000-2009 was the worst 10 year period of the US stock market in the entire history of the stock market. It's due for a comeback. If you have time, you should be aggressively putting money in. A 403b is a long term investment. Don't worry about it today...or next week...or next month. Keep buying low and letting your number of shares grow...it will come back. And when it does your shares will be worth significantly more.

I know these last several years have been rough...but history says you are better off staying w/ the market....

---

tiznow · Nov 16, 2010

Markets have been overvalued and continue to be overvalued on a historical basis the most in history Since the early to mid 90s and people wonder why they are performing badly beyond the financial gloom and doom stuff

Beyond the shorter term noise secular bear started in 2000 they tend to last 15 years or so... So expect another 5 years of crap

Especially from the current overvalued valuations

Get back down to 8k or some number like that or 5 years from now after working off more of the shit we gotta deal with at Dow 11k than I'd be more comfortable with jumping in for long haul

tiznow · Nov 17, 2010

Chart to look at for the long haul

Below the median u will be buying value for the long haul on a historical basis

We only momentarily got there at the march 2009 bottom highly unlikely that was the bottom after being overvalued for so long

Returns have suffered for a decade plus because you were buying very overvalued stocks on a historical basis

http://www.multpl.com/

S&P 500 P/E Ratio

Chart | Table | FAQ | CSV |
Current P/E: 21.49 -0.35 (-1.62%)

Mean: 16.38
Median: 15.76
Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920)
Max: 44.20 (Dec 1999)

eek. · Nov 17, 2010

With the huge bailout of the financial markets supercasino (TARP) if I had sufficient income still coming in and was wondering what to do I would hedge my bets and go 50:50

1. Half into the standard 403 stocks and t-bills thing

Reason: The guys in charge will do ANYTHING to stay in control, including putting millions into total poverty and deprivation, just to keep their system afloat.
So some cash inside the system is sensible.

2. Half into hard cash value property like gold sovereigns.

Reason: If it all DOES go tits

up you've got some security of cash value.
We won't even be able to withdraw our own cash from the bank if things get really bad.

With gold, at least it will never be worth nil.
Financial stuff on the other hand could go anywhere.

Don't envy you your choices.
I've stayed cash poor and loaded 85% into property, there's simply too much bs going on for me.

2 cents

tiznow · Nov 17, 2010

also divy yields on S&P 500 the past decade plus are at historical lows

shiller has a historical dividend yield for S&P 500

it has collapsed since the 1980s

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/

Current Yield: 1.90% -0.00 (-0.02%)
Mean: 4.35%
Median: 4.29%
Min: 1.11% (Aug 2000)
Max: 13.84% (Jun 1932)

essentially for the past 15 years it has been insiders, the rich etc....dumping their overvalued massive amounts of paper (see bill gates for an example http://biz.yahoo.com/t/38/567.html) to the peons of the world