Monday Night Football: Broncos at Chargers Pick
The standings in the AFC West at this point are a little jumbled, to say the least, but the Chargers (4-5 SU), notorious for slow starts under coach Norv Turner, have once again started to look like one of the more dangerous teams.
Sportsbooks have the line for this Monday night matchup set at San Diego -10, with a Total of 50.5. Early betting action has come in on the home side, with Sportsbetting.com manager Brian Taylor stating 70% of the action was on the Chargers as of early Monday morning, with 65% of the volume tiled to the “Over”.
San Diego come in off a bye. Before that, the Chargers went into Houston to steal a win in Week 9 and looking back to Week 8, San Diego held off a streaking Tennessee Titans team in the fourth quarter.
Normally you wouldn’t look at the win in Houston as “stealing” since the Chargers (-3) were favored but the score at half-time made it seem like the Texans were in control. After all, San Diego was playing with second and third team members at its key skill positions on offense and on the road have had the worst special teams in football all season.
But there is one player who has gained a new level of respect for his ability to win with the replacements and QB Phil Rivers is proving he is one of the elite QBs in the league.
STREAK SNAPPER
The Denver Broncos (3-6) were hosting a Kansas City team in the second of back-to-back divisional road games last week and the Broncos were looking to snap a four-game losing streak.
How did they do it? How about 35 first-half points leading to a 20 point win (49-29)!
When you consider what the Raiders did to Denver in Week 7, destroying them at home by a score of 59-14, it is really proving to be a boom or bust season with the Broncos.
Oddsmakers opened the line on this game at Chargers (-9.5) and it was immediately bought up by a half-point but the total has moved from 48 to 50.5 and it’s not slowing down.
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Early injury reports out of San Diego make it look as if we could see another new set of WRs, TEs and tailbacks lining up with QB Rivers. Denver’s secondary will still be under pressure as Rivers averages 312 passing yards by spreading the ball but it seems as if sportsbooks may have posted the favorite a little too high.
It’s a common theme this year, pricing teams with winning records off a bye as favorites against worthy opponents without much regard for the favorite being out of rhythm. Tennessee was a good example in Week 10 at Miami:
The Titans were 3-1 before their bye and as small road favs at Miami more than 80-percent of bettors felt like the Titans, with Randy Moss, would pick up right where they left off. The Titans lost 29-17.
Another is the New York Jets, who were shutout 9-0 (Week 8) after their bye week despite going 5-0 ATS and averaging 30 points per game from Week’s 2-6.
It’s not going to be easy for Denver but in this important divisional game we see the line value being with the dog.
Pick: Take the Broncos
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The standings in the AFC West at this point are a little jumbled, to say the least, but the Chargers (4-5 SU), notorious for slow starts under coach Norv Turner, have once again started to look like one of the more dangerous teams.
Sportsbooks have the line for this Monday night matchup set at San Diego -10, with a Total of 50.5. Early betting action has come in on the home side, with Sportsbetting.com manager Brian Taylor stating 70% of the action was on the Chargers as of early Monday morning, with 65% of the volume tiled to the “Over”.
San Diego come in off a bye. Before that, the Chargers went into Houston to steal a win in Week 9 and looking back to Week 8, San Diego held off a streaking Tennessee Titans team in the fourth quarter.
Normally you wouldn’t look at the win in Houston as “stealing” since the Chargers (-3) were favored but the score at half-time made it seem like the Texans were in control. After all, San Diego was playing with second and third team members at its key skill positions on offense and on the road have had the worst special teams in football all season.
But there is one player who has gained a new level of respect for his ability to win with the replacements and QB Phil Rivers is proving he is one of the elite QBs in the league.
STREAK SNAPPER
The Denver Broncos (3-6) were hosting a Kansas City team in the second of back-to-back divisional road games last week and the Broncos were looking to snap a four-game losing streak.
How did they do it? How about 35 first-half points leading to a 20 point win (49-29)!
When you consider what the Raiders did to Denver in Week 7, destroying them at home by a score of 59-14, it is really proving to be a boom or bust season with the Broncos.
Oddsmakers opened the line on this game at Chargers (-9.5) and it was immediately bought up by a half-point but the total has moved from 48 to 50.5 and it’s not slowing down.
NFL PICKS
Early injury reports out of San Diego make it look as if we could see another new set of WRs, TEs and tailbacks lining up with QB Rivers. Denver’s secondary will still be under pressure as Rivers averages 312 passing yards by spreading the ball but it seems as if sportsbooks may have posted the favorite a little too high.
It’s a common theme this year, pricing teams with winning records off a bye as favorites against worthy opponents without much regard for the favorite being out of rhythm. Tennessee was a good example in Week 10 at Miami:
The Titans were 3-1 before their bye and as small road favs at Miami more than 80-percent of bettors felt like the Titans, with Randy Moss, would pick up right where they left off. The Titans lost 29-17.
Another is the New York Jets, who were shutout 9-0 (Week 8) after their bye week despite going 5-0 ATS and averaging 30 points per game from Week’s 2-6.
It’s not going to be easy for Denver but in this important divisional game we see the line value being with the dog.
Pick: Take the Broncos
Monday Night Football Contest
Add a little extra excitement to the game by playing this free Monday Night picks contest and you can win cash.
Enter you NFL Picks
