no, the philosophy doesn't work.
Every day, you have games where the opening line is 6 and closes at 4, and that -4 is still cashing in (just an example).
The danger is if you win the +4, because then you fall into the mindset that you think you are good at getting inside information, which is absolutely not the case.
Also, injuries really are line adjustors most of the time.
Every day, you have games where the opening line is 6 and closes at 4, and that -4 is still cashing in (just an example).
The danger is if you win the +4, because then you fall into the mindset that you think you are good at getting inside information, which is absolutely not the case.
Also, injuries really are line adjustors most of the time.
That's false thinking. Linesmakers don't set a based on what they feel the game score will be, they base a line on what they think will get them the spread of action they want. (Usually that's pretty close to 50-50, but sometimes it's more profitable in the long term for books to take a reasonable position on a game).
One of the classic examples is Super Bowl III, where the Colts were something like an 18-point favorite over the Jets. One of the linesmakers told a story of how people would joke afterwards, "Boy, you guys really missed that one," as the underdogs won outright by 9 points. In truth, it was a great line, as it gave the books the split betting action they wanted.
