Indy has two great weaknesses: they can't run the ball and they can't stop the run. So defenses just ignore their rushing attack completely, allowing them to drop 7, sometimes 8, into coverage. Even a qb as great as Manning has trouble against that many defenders. There's a reason he's thrown 11 interceptions in 3 games and it's not because he sucks. People might also forget that Indy's lost 4 of 5 overall, beating only the Bengals, and even to win that game Indy had to defend Cincy's potential game winning drive in the last minute of play.
On the defensive side of the ball, Indy's ranked 29th in rushing yds against and 31st in yards per carry against (4.8), so I think it's safe to say that Chris Johnson will get 25+ carries. Tenn's passing offense might be as bad as people are saying, but you should only charge Kerry Collins with the struggles in the gms he's started (last week and then a few earlier in the yr). He was terrible last week, but he had some decent numbers in the gms he started earlier this yr.
That said, I believe this thread is completely correct in saying that the gambling public will LOVE Indy - 2.5, then - 3, etc. I suspect that line will close Indy - 3.5, leaving, to my mind, the value in the game on the tenn side.
Although I believe the Tenn moneyline may go higher by kickoff, anyone interested in locking in Tenn moneyline +150 right now, that line's available currently available at Matchbook. I think if you shop the +150 around you'll find it's considerably above market.
Good luck to all,
NI
