When there's a defensive penalty on an extra point, why don't coaches go for two?

Defensive penalties on extra points are almost always accepted by coaches on the ensuing kickoff, but they don't have to be. Instead, the penalty can be accepted on the try for extra point itself, moving the ball from the 3 to the 1.5 yard line. Given that two point conversion percentages are generally between 40 and 45% each year from the 3, it's a near certainty that the 2 pt conversion percentage would be above 50% from the 1.5. If the success rate is > 50% (and i suspect it would be much greater than 50% because straight run plays would be back in the mix for the offense), then by accepting the penalties on the kickoff, coaches are reducing their tm's overall pts, over time.

This situation occured near halftime of the tenn/indy gm, but the logic strikes me as sound for that situation in any gm between any teams. Yet I've never once seen a coach do it, which is a complete mystery to me.

not worth the risk. coaches stick to those sheets of when to go for 2 99% of the time. if the miss it and our chasing that point the rest of the night and it ends up costing them a game, they will never hear the end of it.

you might get some more responses for your recent threads in the nfl forum as opposed to the offshore forum.

If i was a coach I'd go for 2 every time, and I'd never punt unless it was 4th and 10+ inside my own 20.

maybe thats one reason why i'm not a coach.

I have wondered the same thing though. If they get twice as close to the endzone its gotta make the chances go way up.

figure nfl kickers make the PAT roughly 98% of the time.....even if you increase the 2 point conversion rate to 60%, you'd be losing points roughly 40% of the time, greatly helping the other team.....i really don't see where long term percentages should factor too much into a game to game situation.....i'd get pissed if my team's coach said they kept chasing the 2 point conversion because they were waiting for the long term percentages to take hold

Same reason coaches don't go for it on fourth and short when it's been proven to be the correct choice

Thanks kidman232 for the tip on switching forums.

I agree that coaches follow the 'sheet' 99% of the time, but those sheets are constructed assuming that the 2 pt conversion option is from the 3 yd line, not from the 1.5 yd line. To use the law school trick of example ad absurdum to show the point, if a tm were to have their extra point try on the 1 inch line, in probably a 90% success zone, i think most of us would agree the team should go for two, even if the chart says 1.

NFL point-after is attempted from the two, college from the three. So in the NFL a penalty actually makes the attempt from the one-yard line

I've heard 40% from a few sources. . .

soonerdawg1 said:

figure nfl kickers make the PAT roughly 98% of the time.....even if you increase the 2 point conversion rate to 60%, you'd be losing points roughly 40% of the time, greatly helping the other team.....i really don't see where long term percentages should factor too much into a game to game situation.....i'd get pissed if my team's coach said they kept chasing the 2 point conversion because they were waiting for the long term percentages to take hold

Click to expand...

Good point concerning if a head coach had bad luck to begin with that he'd have trouble showing convincing his (prob not too bright) general fan base that he's doing the right thing. But as any sportsbook or successful gambler knows, long run percentages always do take hold, so it seems to me that unless the coach were already on a total hotseat with everyone screaming for his head, the move would make sense.

As an example, using your own 2 pt conversion numbers (which at 60% might very well be accurate, although I'd guess even a bit higher), above, and assuming an NFL team scores 40 TD's in a season, kicking all extra points for the yr gets the team:

40 td's times 6 pts = 240 pts. plus 98% of 40 extra pts, or 39 pts, equals a season long pt total of 279.

Now, pretending your tm can always draw a def penalty, or, more likely, that the league changes the extra point rule to starting from the 1.5 yd line, and going for 2 every time under your numbers, we get:

40 td's times 6 pts = 240 pts. plus 60% of 40 two point conversion tries, or 48 pts, equals a season long pt total of 288.

But it's not even the numbers that bug me the most about coaches never doing the "def penalty moves ball to the 1.5 yd line, so then go for 2" play. It's the fact that coaches are either too stupid to think of it or to gutless to try it. Earlier in the thread I mentioned that this situation happened to Tenn on the TD it scored just before halftime. This is hypothetical, of course, but if Tenn had gone or two in that 1.5 yard line situation and converted, then they'd have had a chance to force OT on the TD they scored at the buzzer.