IF u have 100 wins 27,500 for your ticket.. here is possible scenerios.
Assuming the worse scenerio is u will play @ chicago then @ ATL then vs New England.
Game 1 - Chicago is -450 You want to make something. so risk 900 on Chicago ml to win 200. IF SEATTLE LOSES = +100 IF CHICAGO LOSES = u are -1000 (100 ticket + 900 bet on chicago)
Game 2 - @ ATLANTA spread will probably be -6.5 ATL at this point (but it will be less because of respect for seattle growing with 2 wins) so lets say a -4.5 ATL line which would be a ml from -200 to -250 (lets use -250 to be fair and u need to bet to win 1000 to break even or 1100 to make 100 profit) - Lets make 150 profit at this level for our pain. Risk 2875 to win 1150 ... IF seattle LOSES= +150 IF ATL LOSES = original (-1000) + (-2875 for this bet) = -3875
U now have a ticket for superbowl worth approx 23K on Seattle .. Risk it vs NEW ENGLAND?? (lol right) or hedge once again) New Eng will be -7 or so and -300 ml.. and then u would have to hedge quite a lot to make your 3875 down back.. Hedge 20K on NEW ENG @ -300 and u win 6000 if NEW ENG wins and ur down 20K +3,875 if they lose.. which is 23,875
This means in the finale if Seattle wins u lose this amount (-20,000 + -3,875) off Original ticket (27,500) = $3,625 PROFIT
IF NEW ENG WINS ( i would go a tad bigger here..) u get the 6000 it wins - 3875 spent to get there = $2,125 PROFIT.
Of course this can be divided at a much more even way if u want or much more heavier towards the FAV ml's along the way because no way in hell seattle keeps winning
Gl in what u decide and of course in order to make these bets u better post up NOW at GREEK, or live in vegas or have a SERIOUS local(but doubt they do much ml action)
-murph
Assuming the worse scenerio is u will play @ chicago then @ ATL then vs New England.
Game 1 - Chicago is -450 You want to make something. so risk 900 on Chicago ml to win 200. IF SEATTLE LOSES = +100 IF CHICAGO LOSES = u are -1000 (100 ticket + 900 bet on chicago)
Game 2 - @ ATLANTA spread will probably be -6.5 ATL at this point (but it will be less because of respect for seattle growing with 2 wins) so lets say a -4.5 ATL line which would be a ml from -200 to -250 (lets use -250 to be fair and u need to bet to win 1000 to break even or 1100 to make 100 profit) - Lets make 150 profit at this level for our pain. Risk 2875 to win 1150 ... IF seattle LOSES= +150 IF ATL LOSES = original (-1000) + (-2875 for this bet) = -3875
U now have a ticket for superbowl worth approx 23K on Seattle .. Risk it vs NEW ENGLAND?? (lol right) or hedge once again) New Eng will be -7 or so and -300 ml.. and then u would have to hedge quite a lot to make your 3875 down back.. Hedge 20K on NEW ENG @ -300 and u win 6000 if NEW ENG wins and ur down 20K +3,875 if they lose.. which is 23,875
This means in the finale if Seattle wins u lose this amount (-20,000 + -3,875) off Original ticket (27,500) = $3,625 PROFIT
IF NEW ENG WINS ( i would go a tad bigger here..) u get the 6000 it wins - 3875 spent to get there = $2,125 PROFIT.
Of course this can be divided at a much more even way if u want or much more heavier towards the FAV ml's along the way because no way in hell seattle keeps winning
Gl in what u decide and of course in order to make these bets u better post up NOW at GREEK, or live in vegas or have a SERIOUS local(but doubt they do much ml action)
-murph
IF u have 100 wins 27,500 for your ticket.. here is possible scenerios.
Assuming the worse scenerio is u will play @ chicago then @ ATL then vs New England.
Game 1 - Chicago is -450 You want to make something. so risk 900 on Chicago ml to win 200. IF SEATTLE LOSES = +100 IF CHICAGO LOSES = u are -1000 (100 ticket + 900 bet on chicago)
Game 2 - @ ATLANTA spread will probably be -6.5 ATL at this point (but it will be less because of respect for seattle growing with 2 wins) so lets say a -4.5 ATL line which would be a ml from -200 to -250 (lets use -250 to be fair and u need to bet to win 1000 to break even or 1100 to make 100 profit) - Lets make 150 profit at this level for our pain. Risk 2875 to win 1150 ... IF seattle LOSES= +150 IF ATL LOSES = original (-1000) + (-2875 for this bet) = -3875
U now have a ticket for superbowl worth approx 23K on Seattle .. Risk it vs NEW ENGLAND?? (lol right) or hedge once again) New Eng will be -7 or so and -300 ml.. and then u would have to hedge quite a lot to make your 3875 down back.. Hedge 20K on NEW ENG @ -300 and u win 6000 if NEW ENG wins and ur down 20K +3,875 if they lose.. which is 23,875
This means in the finale if Seattle wins u lose this amount (-20,000 + -3,875) off Original ticket (27,500) = $3,625 PROFIT
IF NEW ENG WINS ( i would go a tad bigger here..) u get the 6000 it wins - 3875 spent to get there = $2,125 PROFIT.
Of course this can be divided at a much more even way if u want or much more heavier towards the FAV ml's along the way because no way in hell seattle keeps winning
Gl in what u decide and of course in order to make these bets u better post up NOW at GREEK, or live in vegas or have a SERIOUS local(but doubt they do much ml action)
-murph
MATCHBOOK would in all liklihood be his best option..........
that's what I was going to suggest too
I only have to win 2 games. BTW its $30 to win $8250IF u have 100 wins 27,500 for your ticket.. here is possible scenerios.
Assuming the worse scenerio is u will play @ chicago then @ ATL then vs New England.
Game 1 - Chicago is -450 You want to make something. so risk 900 on Chicago ml to win 200. IF SEATTLE LOSES = +100 IF CHICAGO LOSES = u are -1000 (100 ticket + 900 bet on chicago)
Game 2 - @ ATLANTA spread will probably be -6.5 ATL at this point (but it will be less because of respect for seattle growing with 2 wins) so lets say a -4.5 ATL line which would be a ml from -200 to -250 (lets use -250 to be fair and u need to bet to win 1000 to break even or 1100 to make 100 profit) - Lets make 150 profit at this level for our pain. Risk 2875 to win 1150 ... IF seattle LOSES= +150 IF ATL LOSES = original (-1000) + (-2875 for this bet) = -3875
U now have a ticket for superbowl worth approx 23K on Seattle .. Risk it vs NEW ENGLAND?? (lol right) or hedge once again) New Eng will be -7 or so and -300 ml.. and then u would have to hedge quite a lot to make your 3875 down back.. Hedge 20K on NEW ENG @ -300 and u win 6000 if NEW ENG wins and ur down 20K +3,875 if they lose.. which is 23,875
This means in the finale if Seattle wins u lose this amount (-20,000 + -3,875) off Original ticket (27,500) = $3,625 PROFIT
IF NEW ENG WINS ( i would go a tad bigger here..) u get the 6000 it wins - 3875 spent to get there = $2,125 PROFIT.
Of course this can be divided at a much more even way if u want or much more heavier towards the FAV ml's along the way because no way in hell seattle keeps winning
Gl in what u decide and of course in order to make these bets u better post up NOW at GREEK, or live in vegas or have a SERIOUS local(but doubt they do much ml action)
-murph
if u only have to win two games then u MUST hedge this ticket.. I mean how important is 1.5K to u? I would think its quite a bit, let alone 8K!!!
Lets use ur exact numbers and plan worse case scenario with on the road twice then and also vs chicago lets not go all in.. just make u a few hundred.
Current Ticket = 30 wins $8250
Game 1 VS Chicago -450 (better lines out there possible)
Hedge 900 on chicago. If CHICAGO WINS u get 200 - 30(initial ticket) = $170 Profit
If SEATTLE WINS u keep moving on with a carryover of 30 + 900 = -$930
Game 2 FINALE vs ATL on ROAD (otherwise it is IN SEATTLE LOL vs GB, but still dogs)
ATL predicted line is between 3.5 to 6.5..lets use 4.5 to be safe and a -250ml (which is quite high for that line)--exaggerating is best.
RISK 6000 on ATL @-250 = $2400 so subtract the 930 down and u get = $1,470 PROFIT
IF SEATTLE WINS u risked 6000+ 930 carryover = -6930 +(initial ticket of +8250) = $1,320 PROFIT
SO BOTTOM LINE IS... if 1.5K is a BUNCH to your bankroll this is a MUST HEDGE opportunity. IMO
GL
-murph
p.s. A lot of guys are saying to ride this chicago game out.. imo this is the worst one to ride out.. at least get yourself a few hundred dollars going into the nfc championship, because more than likely chicago will dismantle seattle as steam has run out.. then your accomplishment for even making playoffs and beating last years champs was for nothing.. Hedge the first and 2nd bet and GUARANTEE 1K+ profit.. on the final game u can keep your seattle bet on the bigger end if u like.. U could even do 4000 @ atl - 250 to win 1000 and cover just the 930 u would be down +profit $70 and ride your seattle ticket then for a $4000 play.. I also think THIS would be not smart as guaranteed money is better than betting against a loaded gun.. BUT it is your choice... GL
Lets use ur exact numbers and plan worse case scenario with on the road twice then and also vs chicago lets not go all in.. just make u a few hundred.
Current Ticket = 30 wins $8250
Game 1 VS Chicago -450 (better lines out there possible)
Hedge 900 on chicago. If CHICAGO WINS u get 200 - 30(initial ticket) = $170 Profit
If SEATTLE WINS u keep moving on with a carryover of 30 + 900 = -$930
Game 2 FINALE vs ATL on ROAD (otherwise it is IN SEATTLE LOL vs GB, but still dogs)
ATL predicted line is between 3.5 to 6.5..lets use 4.5 to be safe and a -250ml (which is quite high for that line)--exaggerating is best.
RISK 6000 on ATL @-250 = $2400 so subtract the 930 down and u get = $1,470 PROFIT
IF SEATTLE WINS u risked 6000+ 930 carryover = -6930 +(initial ticket of +8250) = $1,320 PROFIT
SO BOTTOM LINE IS... if 1.5K is a BUNCH to your bankroll this is a MUST HEDGE opportunity. IMO
GL
-murph
p.s. A lot of guys are saying to ride this chicago game out.. imo this is the worst one to ride out.. at least get yourself a few hundred dollars going into the nfc championship, because more than likely chicago will dismantle seattle as steam has run out.. then your accomplishment for even making playoffs and beating last years champs was for nothing.. Hedge the first and 2nd bet and GUARANTEE 1K+ profit.. on the final game u can keep your seattle bet on the bigger end if u like.. U could even do 4000 @ atl - 250 to win 1000 and cover just the 930 u would be down +profit $70 and ride your seattle ticket then for a $4000 play.. I also think THIS would be not smart as guaranteed money is better than betting against a loaded gun.. BUT it is your choice... GL
Current Ticket = 30 wins $8250
You won't see a line of ATL- 3 1/2 or even 7,against Seattle, it will be 12-14 IMO. That takes the ML to what -500 at least, I'm thinking of playing maybe 450 and having my pulse on live betting on Sunday,and hoping for a good start by Seattle. Now if GB wins, I might hedge a little more since GB most likely would be -6-7 at Seattle, which is more feasible
I am sitting on a 10 for 3000 ticket at Matchbook. Just no point in hedging it.. and I will usually hedge when I have a profit locked up. In this situation you just can't make much with ML's of -400 Chicago and expected -500 on Atlanta if they make it. Parlay odds on Seattle beating Bears and then Atlanta would be 24 to 1 or more.
Sorry Murhpy but there is no way Atlanta is a 3 or 4 point favorite at home against Seattle. Would be 12 point favorites likely.
Sorry Murhpy but there is no way Atlanta is a 3 or 4 point favorite at home against Seattle. Would be 12 point favorites likely.
