so assuming i can expect to hit 56% to 58% over the long term by working hard on my own plays.....always hope to hit at a higher rate, but i feel like that's a very reasonable expectation when using the "work hard at everything you do" approach....
but i also like having action, and most days i don't feel like taking the time and effort, so my original idea was on those days i will tail a solid capper here and just bet half of what i would on my own plays
then i got to thinking about it, and assuming that these action plays will probably result in a 50% W/L rate because i'm not tailing these good cappers every day, just hopping on and off....anyway, over the course of a year i suddenly realized that these small action plays will eat a serious hole in the profits i might make by working hard and sticking to what i do.....
now in a perfect world i would have the discipline just to lay off when i don't do my own work, and i'm working on that and making improvements.....but the way things are going now, it looks like i will wind up playing twice as many "small action plays" as i will plays that i actually work on, and even by betting just half the amount on these plays, the result would be basically an overall break even (assuming 56% on my own plays at 100 plays per year and 50% on action at 200 plays per year).....and that's depressing considering the time i might put into it over the course of a year
so then i thought what about making my action plays just a quarter of what a normal bet would be? the problem i run into there is the idea that you're at a point where you might as well not even bet if you're betting that small.....
point is, and sometimes i can be a master statesman of the obvious, but betting for action can seriously affect the bankroll over the course of a year even though they seem harmless at the moment.....
so i'd kind of like some feedback from the vets who are in the sports forums daily and it always seems like they have several plays going at once (you know who you are goddammit)....i'm thinking maybe i put a couple hundred in a book and use that as my "degenerate money", with the objective simply being not to lose it? i'm getting better at laying off, but i've still got some holes i need to fix.....15 years of bad gambling habits won't be fixed overnight
thanks
but i also like having action, and most days i don't feel like taking the time and effort, so my original idea was on those days i will tail a solid capper here and just bet half of what i would on my own plays
then i got to thinking about it, and assuming that these action plays will probably result in a 50% W/L rate because i'm not tailing these good cappers every day, just hopping on and off....anyway, over the course of a year i suddenly realized that these small action plays will eat a serious hole in the profits i might make by working hard and sticking to what i do.....
now in a perfect world i would have the discipline just to lay off when i don't do my own work, and i'm working on that and making improvements.....but the way things are going now, it looks like i will wind up playing twice as many "small action plays" as i will plays that i actually work on, and even by betting just half the amount on these plays, the result would be basically an overall break even (assuming 56% on my own plays at 100 plays per year and 50% on action at 200 plays per year).....and that's depressing considering the time i might put into it over the course of a year
so then i thought what about making my action plays just a quarter of what a normal bet would be? the problem i run into there is the idea that you're at a point where you might as well not even bet if you're betting that small.....
point is, and sometimes i can be a master statesman of the obvious, but betting for action can seriously affect the bankroll over the course of a year even though they seem harmless at the moment.....
so i'd kind of like some feedback from the vets who are in the sports forums daily and it always seems like they have several plays going at once (you know who you are goddammit)....i'm thinking maybe i put a couple hundred in a book and use that as my "degenerate money", with the objective simply being not to lose it? i'm getting better at laying off, but i've still got some holes i need to fix.....15 years of bad gambling habits won't be fixed overnight
thanks
