Wormy Pix
Play up this early?! OMT, I'm really beginning to lean towards PIT myself. Both teams are even when it comes to basic matchups. The only clear advantage PIT has is their run gm. Although PIT's "D" is better than GB's, GB's "O" is that much better than PIT's "O". This gm has to end in a FG or broken play TD, it's that close. I think PIT's experience may be the deciding factor here.
Not concerned about Pouncey's status? BOL OMT, and thanks for your pix!
Sorry for the delay in responding but Monday and Tuesday are my days off and I only stopped by very late Monday night to post my play for the Superbowl. Well, enough of that. Let me get right to your questions.
First of all, the reason I posted early was two fold. First it was the line. I personally took the +3's when they were available Sunday night and since on Monday, the lines had dropped to 2 at many outs, I decided to post using the widely available line of +2.5 which is currently still the number. I did so because IMHO the line is more likely to drop then go back to 3. The 3's were gobbled up relatively quickly on Sunday and if they show again, I expect the same thing to occur. The current line may stay the same until game day, but I am expecting to see it drop on game day.
Second, since the Superbowl is one of the largest betting events and has two weeks of build up to the game, rather then do a complete write-up with unit by unit match-ups for offense, defense, special teams, punting, kick-offs, field goal kicking, returns, coaching and intangibles, I decided to have a thead open so posters can ask me anything they would like throughout the two weeks and I will answer each question individually. Hopefully, by game time we will have covered every element of the game broken down by detail. So I invite anyone with questions for me to simply ask away and I will be happy to share my thoughts.
In this reply, since you primary seem to be concentrating on the Pittsburgh offensive line versus the Green Bay defensive line and have raised the issue regarding Pouncy's status, I will address that. I looked at the running game match-up with and without Pouncey and asked myself whether or not the Steelers will be able to successfully run on the Packer defense and my conclusion was affirmative. The Steelers have averaged 4.1 ypc carry this year rushing while the Packers have yielded 4.5 ypc against the run. Although, the Packers held Atlanta to 45 yards on 14 carries and Chicago to 70 yards on 22 carries, this is a step up in class for their defensive unit as the Steelers come off a very impressive performance on the ground against the New York Jets gaining 166 yards on 43 carries which resulted in long successful time consuming drives against a team that was only yielding 92 ypg and 3.6 ypc. Thus, I fully expect the Steelers to be able to run on the Packers defense.
Edge: Steelers
You also raised the question of experience. While I consider this one of the intangibles, clearly the Steelers are very familiar with the two weeks leading up to the Superbowl and how to prepare the first week, go through media day, and continue practice and preparation through Saturday, the day before the game and Roethlisberger has shined on the big stage and has two rings to show for it. Meanwhile, this will be new to the Packers but I fully expect them to be able to handle it well.
Slight Edge: Steelers
I hope that this helps in your decision making. Best of luck to you! :toast:
