NCAABB is impossible to beat now that the oddsmakers changed the way they set their lines.

TheWolf · Jan 29, 2011

SIdes & Totals.

This is my last try at it this year, but it is clear the books have upgraded thier software programs over the last 2-3 years and have developed a system that is extremely tight and spot on for college hoops. ^^

I will be saving the rest of my football winnings thank you very much.

chipman58 · Jan 29, 2011

I felt that it was getting tougher to beat. I didnt realize that they had made any changes. I quess they are always looking for ways to improve though.

groundhog11 · Jan 29, 2011

i didnt know they upgraded their software....

Konun8 · Jan 29, 2011

I've had a terrible year on college hoops. It used to be my 3rd best sport behind boxing & mlb, but I'm having to re-think my entire approach this season. Pre-conference games really killed me this year. December 2010 was a total nightmare.

cincy_ · Jan 29, 2011

I have seen MAJOR DIFFERENCES in how the halftime lines are set. It sucks now.

eroscillator · Jan 30, 2011

seems lvsc has a set pattern for totals....game total -9.5,then divide by 2 to get 1st half total,,
and 2nd hf total is half the game total ..ex: fsu/clemson- 126.5.....1st hf-58.5....2nd hf-68.5...
is this different from how past lines were set???

cincy_ · Jan 30, 2011

eroscillator said:
seems lvsc has a set pattern for totals....game total -9.5,then divide by 2 to get 1st half total,,
and 2nd hf total is half the game total ..ex: fsu/clemson- 126.5.....1st hf-58.5....2nd hf-68.5...
is this different from how past lines were set???

The halftime lines are different this year in NCAAB, and I am having to adjust.

In the past, if a team was -9 for the game and was down by say, 6 points at the half, you could guess that the 2nd half line would be in the 5.5 to 7 point range (which meant the favorite just had to win) ... but these days you will see those 2nd half lines become -8.5 or maybe even -9 in some cases.

chipman58 · Jan 30, 2011

Been very hard to middle IMO.

TheWolf · Jan 30, 2011

ground hog11 said:
i didnt know they upgraded their software....

I was told that in 2009 they tweaked their software, which reaked havoc on several sharps systems.

All I know is that I had moderate success with my capping approach prior to 2009. I also was able to beat several moves and closers in 2007, 2008 (when all the books actually posted totals on all the games!) It was my best two years in NCAABB ever. I am sure many others had success in these years as well.

Since that time, totals were cut off of many games by a lot of books (some didnt even post for a month after start of season.), false moves and reverses were everywhere, and the way the lines & totals (particularly totals) were set for NCAABB were altered significantly.

I am glad you guys have seen the same thing. NCAABB was my most profitable sport in 07, 08. Prior to that it was my 3rd most profitable sport. The past two years, i have only lost money on NCAABB, and I have tried everything to adjust to the changes, to no avail. I thought I had something working for this year but it lasted about 2 weeks, then tanked for the next three weeks, so it is simply not worth pissing away anymore money.

soonerdawg1 · Jan 30, 2011

cincy_ said:
The halftime lines are different this year in NCAAB, and I am having to adjust.

In the past, if a team was -9 for the game and was down by say, 6 points at the half, you could guess that the 2nd half line would be in the 5.5 to 7 point range (which meant the favorite just had to win) ... but these days you will see those 2nd half lines become -8.5 or maybe even -9 in some cases.

last night oklahoma was +8 1/2 for the game.....they led by 8 at the half.....2nd half line was +7

cincy_ · Jan 30, 2011

soonerdawg1 said:
last night oklahoma was +8 1/2 for the game.....they led by 8 at the half.....2nd half line was +7

Yes ... because they can't make the line -11 for the 2nd half now can they? That's really looking for one sided action.

If OU had been up 6 for the half, my feeling is that the line would have been (a) -6.5 for ISU last year and (b) -8.5 or even -9 for ISU this year.

dkp · Jan 31, 2011

Wolf - are you playing sides or totals?

jonnyangel · Jan 31, 2011

chipman58 said:
Been very hard to middle IMO.

+1

nimue77 · Jan 31, 2011

NCAA Basketball is the best! It's really not that hard to beat.

TheWolf · Jan 31, 2011

dkp said:
Wolf - are you playing sides or totals?

both. I noticed the totals are worse.

TheWolf · Jan 31, 2011

nimue77 said:
NCAA Basketball is the best! It's really not that hard to beat.

Please explain your approach.

cincy_ · Jan 31, 2011

The Wolf said:
Please explain your approach.

I doubt anyone will.

I have won this season too, but I sure as hell ain't going to post what I do on a public forum.

The only person who really shares is Pops in MLB, but you need to follow a 200 page thread all season for it to help. I tried it in 2008 and 2009. It works.

cincy_ · Feb 1, 2011

I despise scamdicappers, but if you pay Scott Kellen $400 for a season, his picks are great for NFL.

He used to post his plays here too ... but that was like 5-7 years ago, I think.

NCAABB is impossible to beat now that the oddsmakers changed the way they set their lines.

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