Future 50: Anthony Rendon is No. 1
The first list of 2011 MLB draft prospects features a tight race at the top
By Keith Law
ESPN Insider
With college baseball's Division I schedule starting up on Friday night, here's a preseason look at the top 50 prospects for this year's Rule 4 draft, a class that is as loaded as any I can remember. It shows great strength in college and high school pitching and has some depth in college outfielders, with athleticism on display all over the place.
It's also the last draft under the current CBA, and with MLB threatening to implement hard slotting, players are expected to sign more readily while teams focused on acquiring amateur talent are expected to blow out their draft budgets.
After the top 50, I've listed a few more names of players who could end up Day 1 picks, potentially high ones, depending on how their seasons go. I'll have more thoughts tomorrow in the MLB Draft Blog on the candidates to go No. 1 overall.
Anthony Rendon
3B
6-0
190
Analysis: The presumptive No. 1 overall pick, but by no means a lock. Rendon has an outstanding approach at the plate with great bat speed, and he's a plus defender at third. He's recovering from his second major ankle injury and will have to show he hasn't lost any agility.
George Springer
OF
6-3
220
Analysis: An athletic outfielder with an above-average arm who projects to hit and hit for power and just needs to refine his approach, especially with two strikes.
Gerrit Cole
RHP
6-4
220
Analysis: Huge arm strength combined with results and some small signs of increasing maturity since high school.
Bubba Starling
CF/P
6-5
195
Analysis: The Golden Child with the name to match, Starling is committed to play baseball and football at Nebraska, but an entire industry is hoping he chooses baseball. He's got five tools at the plate and is very projectable on the mound, with a higher ceiling as a hitter.
Sonny Gray
RHP
5-11
180
Analysis: Some teams will shy away from right-handers under 6 feet, but Gray is a fierce competitor who will reach 96 with good run and a hard breaking ball that would miss bats in pro ball right away.
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Matt Barnes
LHP
6-4
203
Analysis: Regularly 92-96 with a hard curveball and an average changeup and a delivery that's gotten a little cleaner since he entered UConn as an unheralded and undrafted freshman in 2008.
Matt Purke
LHP
6-4
180
Analysis: Big stuff from the left side with outstanding performance as a freshman last year, but the low arm slot and concerns about his workload have him below a few other college arms.
Francisco Lindor
SS
5-11
170
Analysis: A true shortstop with feel to hit and surprising pop for his size as well as a ton of energy on the field that will help elevate him in June.
Archie Bradley
RHP
6-3
215
Analysis: Committed to Oklahoma to play quarterback, Bradley is a monster on the mound, up to 96 with a plus breaking ball and an ideal combination of size and athleticism for a workhorse starter.
Blake Swihart
C
6-1
175
Analysis: Switch-hitting catchers are rare beasts, and Swihart has made a lot of progress in just a year and a half at the position; he has arm strength but has to improve his footwork and receiving to justify my aggressive ranking here.
Taylor Jungmann
RHP
6-6
220
Analysis: Scouts dislike the way he finishes the delivery but are consistent in praise of his stuff and history of performance.
Jed Bradley
LHP
6-4
224
Analysis: Reportedly hitting 97 in preseason workouts, even at 90-94 with an above-average changeup he's one of the premium college pitchers in this draft.
Dylan Bundy
LHP
6-1
205
Analysis: Brother of Orioles farmhand Bobby Bundy, Dylan will show four pitches and has been up to 95 in the past.
Dillon Howard
RHP
6-2
200
Analysis: Big and physical, up to 95 with a hard curveball, and a strong commitment to the University of Arkansas.
Jackie Bradley Jr.
CF
5-10
175
Analysis: Probably the draft's best defensive center fielder, this Bradley is a four-tool player who needs to avoid getting power-happy at the plate and focus on using the whole field.
Nick Delmonico
C/3B
6-2
185
Analysis: A baseball rat with good bloodlines and a big-time hit tool; he's most likely a third baseman in pro ball, but will play both spots this spring and could convince a team to leave him behind the dish.
Brian Goodwin
CF
6-1
170
Analysis: Has looked rusty so far this season but is one of the most exciting athletes in the draft, with plus-plus speed and a sound approach at the plate.
Andrew Susac
C
6-1
205
Analysis: Draft-eligible as a sophomore, Susac has raw power and arm strength but has to show he can hit better pitching, which he'll see plenty of this spring in the Pac-10.
Danny Hultzen
LHP
6-3
200
Analysis: Famous in draft circles for the wrong reasons -- like his father's tantrum when the Diamondbacks took a flier on him in the 10th round in 2008 -- Hultzen has performed extremely well across two years as a command lefty with good feel but no single plus pitch.
Jason Esposito
3B
6-2
205
Analysis: Can hit and hit for power, with a refined approach last year that came from quieting his lower half. Could probably play second if asked but he's above average at third.
Daniel Norris
LHP
6-2
180
Analysis: Not as physical as a Howard or a Bradley or as polished as Bundy, but he'll show above-average velocity with some downhill plane.
Josh Bell
OF
6-3
190
Analysis: Made a lot of progress on his swing while recovering from a minor knee injury last summer, using his lower half better; he has a very advanced approach and above-average raw power but is probably limited to a corner outfield spot or first base.
Alex Meyer
RHP
6-9
220
Analysis: Hit 100 in a recent scrimmage with good sink on the fastball and a wipeout slider, but bad results and perceived lack of toughness prevent his top-of-the-draft stuff from putting him at the top of the draft.
Henry Owens
LHP
6-5
180
Analysis: Solid-average fastball, above-average changeup, good feel, great deception, good body, not the cleanest arm action.
Trevor Bauer
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Results are outstanding in a tough conference, but high workloads and unusual training style dominate conversations about him.
Levi Michael
SS
5-10
180
Analysis: Switch-hitting shortstop who would be above average if he's forced to return to second but should be able to stay at short.
Tyler Beede
RHP
6-4
200
Analysis: Will flash above-average velocity but it's the command, the feel, the off-speed stuff, even the two-seamer, that gets you excited here.
Austin Hedges
C
6-1
185
Analysis: Best catch-and-throw prep catcher in the country with some questions on his bat and a lot of rumors about his unsignability.
Alex Dickerson
LF
6-3
225
Analysis: Dickerson can hit and shows big raw power in BP, but will be limited defensively to left field or first base; his bat right now looks good enough to profile at either spot.
Travis Harrison
3B
6-2
215
Analysis: Perhaps SoCal's best pure bat among preps, Harrison can hit and should hit for power, but he's somewhat slow-twitch and could be ticketed for first base.
Ryan Carpenter
LHP
6-5
225
Analysis: Huge left-hander with stuff more average than you'd think from his size. Should benefit from a tough schedule that has him matching up with a number of other major college arms.
Michael Kelly
RHP
6-3
185
Analysis: University of Florida commit with a tall, projectable frame, up to 93 comfortably now but with more in there; needs to make better use of his height to stay on top of the ball.
Jason Coats
OF
6-2
190
Analysis: Hard-hitting corner outfielder with strong hands and average power projecting better, but very questionable pitch recognition may keep him out of the first round.
Scott McGough
RHP
6-1
185
Analysis: Solid-average fastball with above-average changeup and good feel, but doesn't have a big frame for durability.
Anthony Meo
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Will show mid-90s but area scouts largely peg him as a future reliever based on results and minor arm woes last summer.
Shawon Dunston Jr.
OF
6-2
162
Analysis: Center fielder who's a plus runner, has good bat speed, uses his hips well and showed a good approach last summer.
Tyler Anderson
LHP
6-4
215
Analysis: Las Vegas native is up to 93 with a hard slurve that he'll use against both left- and right-handed hitters.
Mikie Mahtook
OF
6-1
192
Analysis: Belongs here if you believe he can stay in center field; if not, he's a third-rounder or worse, as the bat doesn't profile in a corner.
Jose Fernandez
RHP
6-4
215
Analysis: Up to 98 already this spring with much better shape to his breaking ball.
Philip Evans
SS
5-10
180
Analysis: "Ballplayer" type who lacks a standout tool but has good feel for the bat and for the middle infield.
Joe Ross
RHP
6-2
170
Analysis: Tyson's little brother has a much cleaner delivery and easier arm action with low-90s stuff and a chance for more.
Robert Stephenson
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Good frame and two average or better pitches with some violence in the delivery.
Brandon Nimmo
OF
6-2
185
Analysis: Athletic outfielder whose high school lacks a baseball team and will spend the spring with his Legion club instead.
Blake Forslund
RHP
6-3
210
Analysis: Formerly of UVa, Forslund is one of a handful of pop-up college arms (Kent State redshirt sophomore LHP Andrew Chafin is another) who showed good velocity in fall ball and put themselves on the preseason map.
Tyler Goeddel
OF
6-4
175
Analysis: Younger brother of Mets farmhand Erik -- and son of biotech pioneer David Goeddel -- Tyler's main drawback now is lack of strength, with a frame he should grow into over the next few years.
Charles Tilson
OF
6-0
175
Analysis: Star of last year's Area Code Games, Tilson can run and hit with some pop but won't face much quality pitching this spring.
Scott Lyman
RHP
6-4
215
Analysis: Brother of Atlanta farmhand Jeff Lyman, Scott will sit 93-95 with a hammer curveball and some feel for a changeup.
Taylor Guerrieri
RHP
6-3
180
Analysis: Up to 96 in the fall and in early workouts, he's committed to South Carolina and faces some questions about his delivery.
Logan Verrett
RHP
6-3
185
Analysis: Up-and-down summer on the Cape dimmed his stock but he'll show good velocity and both a curve and slider as a starter.
Cory Spangenberg
SS
6-0
184
Analysis: Former VMI Keydet is committed to Miami for 2011-12 but seems unlikely to get there, as his bat outweighs questions over his position.
<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->TEN TO WATCH
<TABLE><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player</TD><TD>Pos.</TD><TD>School</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Brian Brickhouse</TD><TD>RHP</TD><TD>The Woodlands H.S. (TX)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Kevin Cron </TD><TD>C/1B</TD><TD>Mountain Pointe H.S. (AZ) </TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>C.J. Cron</TD><TD>C</TD><TD>Utah</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Dylan Davis</TD><TD>RHP</TD><TD>Redmond H.S. (WA)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Johnny Eierman</TD><TD>SS</TD><TD>Warsaw H.S. (MO)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>James Harris Jr.</TD><TD>OF</TD><TD>Oakland Technical H.S. (CA)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Harold Martinez</TD><TD>3B</TD><TD>Miami (FL)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Dwight Smith</TD><TD>OF</TD><TD>McIntosh H.S. (GA)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>John Stilson</TD><TD>RHP</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Carl Thomore</TD><TD>OF</TD><TD>East Brunswick H.S. (NJ)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The first list of 2011 MLB draft prospects features a tight race at the top
By Keith Law
ESPN Insider
With college baseball's Division I schedule starting up on Friday night, here's a preseason look at the top 50 prospects for this year's Rule 4 draft, a class that is as loaded as any I can remember. It shows great strength in college and high school pitching and has some depth in college outfielders, with athleticism on display all over the place.
It's also the last draft under the current CBA, and with MLB threatening to implement hard slotting, players are expected to sign more readily while teams focused on acquiring amateur talent are expected to blow out their draft budgets.
After the top 50, I've listed a few more names of players who could end up Day 1 picks, potentially high ones, depending on how their seasons go. I'll have more thoughts tomorrow in the MLB Draft Blog on the candidates to go No. 1 overall.
3B
6-0
190
Analysis: The presumptive No. 1 overall pick, but by no means a lock. Rendon has an outstanding approach at the plate with great bat speed, and he's a plus defender at third. He's recovering from his second major ankle injury and will have to show he hasn't lost any agility.
OF
6-3
220
Analysis: An athletic outfielder with an above-average arm who projects to hit and hit for power and just needs to refine his approach, especially with two strikes.
RHP
6-4
220
Analysis: Huge arm strength combined with results and some small signs of increasing maturity since high school.
CF/P
6-5
195
Analysis: The Golden Child with the name to match, Starling is committed to play baseball and football at Nebraska, but an entire industry is hoping he chooses baseball. He's got five tools at the plate and is very projectable on the mound, with a higher ceiling as a hitter.
RHP
5-11
180
Analysis: Some teams will shy away from right-handers under 6 feet, but Gray is a fierce competitor who will reach 96 with good run and a hard breaking ball that would miss bats in pro ball right away.
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->
LHP
6-4
203
Analysis: Regularly 92-96 with a hard curveball and an average changeup and a delivery that's gotten a little cleaner since he entered UConn as an unheralded and undrafted freshman in 2008.
LHP
6-4
180
Analysis: Big stuff from the left side with outstanding performance as a freshman last year, but the low arm slot and concerns about his workload have him below a few other college arms.
SS
5-11
170
Analysis: A true shortstop with feel to hit and surprising pop for his size as well as a ton of energy on the field that will help elevate him in June.
RHP
6-3
215
Analysis: Committed to Oklahoma to play quarterback, Bradley is a monster on the mound, up to 96 with a plus breaking ball and an ideal combination of size and athleticism for a workhorse starter.
C
6-1
175
Analysis: Switch-hitting catchers are rare beasts, and Swihart has made a lot of progress in just a year and a half at the position; he has arm strength but has to improve his footwork and receiving to justify my aggressive ranking here.
RHP
6-6
220
Analysis: Scouts dislike the way he finishes the delivery but are consistent in praise of his stuff and history of performance.
LHP
6-4
224
Analysis: Reportedly hitting 97 in preseason workouts, even at 90-94 with an above-average changeup he's one of the premium college pitchers in this draft.
LHP
6-1
205
Analysis: Brother of Orioles farmhand Bobby Bundy, Dylan will show four pitches and has been up to 95 in the past.
RHP
6-2
200
Analysis: Big and physical, up to 95 with a hard curveball, and a strong commitment to the University of Arkansas.
CF
5-10
175
Analysis: Probably the draft's best defensive center fielder, this Bradley is a four-tool player who needs to avoid getting power-happy at the plate and focus on using the whole field.
C/3B
6-2
185
Analysis: A baseball rat with good bloodlines and a big-time hit tool; he's most likely a third baseman in pro ball, but will play both spots this spring and could convince a team to leave him behind the dish.
CF
6-1
170
Analysis: Has looked rusty so far this season but is one of the most exciting athletes in the draft, with plus-plus speed and a sound approach at the plate.
C
6-1
205
Analysis: Draft-eligible as a sophomore, Susac has raw power and arm strength but has to show he can hit better pitching, which he'll see plenty of this spring in the Pac-10.
LHP
6-3
200
Analysis: Famous in draft circles for the wrong reasons -- like his father's tantrum when the Diamondbacks took a flier on him in the 10th round in 2008 -- Hultzen has performed extremely well across two years as a command lefty with good feel but no single plus pitch.
3B
6-2
205
Analysis: Can hit and hit for power, with a refined approach last year that came from quieting his lower half. Could probably play second if asked but he's above average at third.
LHP
6-2
180
Analysis: Not as physical as a Howard or a Bradley or as polished as Bundy, but he'll show above-average velocity with some downhill plane.
OF
6-3
190
Analysis: Made a lot of progress on his swing while recovering from a minor knee injury last summer, using his lower half better; he has a very advanced approach and above-average raw power but is probably limited to a corner outfield spot or first base.
RHP
6-9
220
Analysis: Hit 100 in a recent scrimmage with good sink on the fastball and a wipeout slider, but bad results and perceived lack of toughness prevent his top-of-the-draft stuff from putting him at the top of the draft.
LHP
6-5
180
Analysis: Solid-average fastball, above-average changeup, good feel, great deception, good body, not the cleanest arm action.
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Results are outstanding in a tough conference, but high workloads and unusual training style dominate conversations about him.
SS
5-10
180
Analysis: Switch-hitting shortstop who would be above average if he's forced to return to second but should be able to stay at short.
RHP
6-4
200
Analysis: Will flash above-average velocity but it's the command, the feel, the off-speed stuff, even the two-seamer, that gets you excited here.
C
6-1
185
Analysis: Best catch-and-throw prep catcher in the country with some questions on his bat and a lot of rumors about his unsignability.
LF
6-3
225
Analysis: Dickerson can hit and shows big raw power in BP, but will be limited defensively to left field or first base; his bat right now looks good enough to profile at either spot.
3B
6-2
215
Analysis: Perhaps SoCal's best pure bat among preps, Harrison can hit and should hit for power, but he's somewhat slow-twitch and could be ticketed for first base.
LHP
6-5
225
Analysis: Huge left-hander with stuff more average than you'd think from his size. Should benefit from a tough schedule that has him matching up with a number of other major college arms.
RHP
6-3
185
Analysis: University of Florida commit with a tall, projectable frame, up to 93 comfortably now but with more in there; needs to make better use of his height to stay on top of the ball.
OF
6-2
190
Analysis: Hard-hitting corner outfielder with strong hands and average power projecting better, but very questionable pitch recognition may keep him out of the first round.
RHP
6-1
185
Analysis: Solid-average fastball with above-average changeup and good feel, but doesn't have a big frame for durability.
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Will show mid-90s but area scouts largely peg him as a future reliever based on results and minor arm woes last summer.
OF
6-2
162
Analysis: Center fielder who's a plus runner, has good bat speed, uses his hips well and showed a good approach last summer.
LHP
6-4
215
Analysis: Las Vegas native is up to 93 with a hard slurve that he'll use against both left- and right-handed hitters.
OF
6-1
192
Analysis: Belongs here if you believe he can stay in center field; if not, he's a third-rounder or worse, as the bat doesn't profile in a corner.
RHP
6-4
215
Analysis: Up to 98 already this spring with much better shape to his breaking ball.
SS
5-10
180
Analysis: "Ballplayer" type who lacks a standout tool but has good feel for the bat and for the middle infield.
RHP
6-2
170
Analysis: Tyson's little brother has a much cleaner delivery and easier arm action with low-90s stuff and a chance for more.
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Good frame and two average or better pitches with some violence in the delivery.
OF
6-2
185
Analysis: Athletic outfielder whose high school lacks a baseball team and will spend the spring with his Legion club instead.
RHP
6-3
210
Analysis: Formerly of UVa, Forslund is one of a handful of pop-up college arms (Kent State redshirt sophomore LHP Andrew Chafin is another) who showed good velocity in fall ball and put themselves on the preseason map.
OF
6-4
175
Analysis: Younger brother of Mets farmhand Erik -- and son of biotech pioneer David Goeddel -- Tyler's main drawback now is lack of strength, with a frame he should grow into over the next few years.
OF
6-0
175
Analysis: Star of last year's Area Code Games, Tilson can run and hit with some pop but won't face much quality pitching this spring.
RHP
6-4
215
Analysis: Brother of Atlanta farmhand Jeff Lyman, Scott will sit 93-95 with a hammer curveball and some feel for a changeup.
RHP
6-3
180
Analysis: Up to 96 in the fall and in early workouts, he's committed to South Carolina and faces some questions about his delivery.
RHP
6-3
185
Analysis: Up-and-down summer on the Cape dimmed his stock but he'll show good velocity and both a curve and slider as a starter.
SS
6-0
184
Analysis: Former VMI Keydet is committed to Miami for 2011-12 but seems unlikely to get there, as his bat outweighs questions over his position.
<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->TEN TO WATCH
<TABLE><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player</TD><TD>Pos.</TD><TD>School</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Brian Brickhouse</TD><TD>RHP</TD><TD>The Woodlands H.S. (TX)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Kevin Cron </TD><TD>C/1B</TD><TD>Mountain Pointe H.S. (AZ) </TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>C.J. Cron</TD><TD>C</TD><TD>Utah</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Dylan Davis</TD><TD>RHP</TD><TD>Redmond H.S. (WA)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Johnny Eierman</TD><TD>SS</TD><TD>Warsaw H.S. (MO)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>James Harris Jr.</TD><TD>OF</TD><TD>Oakland Technical H.S. (CA)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Harold Martinez</TD><TD>3B</TD><TD>Miami (FL)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Dwight Smith</TD><TD>OF</TD><TD>McIntosh H.S. (GA)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>John Stilson</TD><TD>RHP</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>--</TD><TD>Carl Thomore</TD><TD>OF</TD><TD>East Brunswick H.S. (NJ)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
