Signs of bad handicapping

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

I'm wondering what kind of tell tell signs you guys look for when you're looking at results and trying to get a read for what's working and what's not. For the most part we can't control field goal %, bad calls, things like that, but when looking at how you capped the game and the on the field results, what kinds of things stand out to you that cause you to change your approach?

One thing that stands out to me as I look over what I'm doing is it seems like I'm getting into a groove where I may be putting more weight into "situational" or "judgment" type capping instead of looking at the cold hard facts of a solid sample size of stats, depth, and what not.

Scoops · Mar 5, 2011

Study long,study wrong.Don't over complicate things,IMO
:toast:

Defying · Mar 5, 2011

soonerdawg1 said:
One thing that stands out to me as I look over what I'm doing is it seems like I'm getting into a groove where I may be putting more weight into "situational" or "judgment" type capping instead of looking at the cold hard facts of a solid sample size of stats, depth, and what not.

You hit it sooner...

I don't know how most people handicap, but I can only do it if I watched the teams before (except MLB) Its about matchups for me, what makes a player succeed, and what they struggle with.. then I go to the number, and I look and see if the number makes sense... once i get to that step, I look at the numbers, but the situation always needs to be remembered....

Only other person that I know personally that handicaps the games is a PURE numbers guy, and how he does it amazes me. I talk sports with very knowledgable people all the time, and that really helps me break down players and teams....

but I think situations are the most important thing.....

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

True Scoops. I seem to be in a groove where leans that I pass up because I couldn't support them are hitting at a higher rate than the games I'm working on.....very frustrating but I think it's just a variance issue. Although I find myself sometimes coming across some trend or situational type angle that pulls me in and causes me to throw everything else out the window.

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

Defying said:
You hit it sooner...

I don't know how most people handicap, but I can only do it if I watched the teams before (except MLB) Its about matchups for me, what makes a player succeed, and what they struggle with.. then I go to the number, and I look and see if the number makes sense... once i get to that step, I look at the numbers, but the situation always needs to be remembered....

Only other person that I know personally that handicaps the games is a PURE numbers guy, and how he does it amazes me. I talk sports with very knowledgable people all the time, and that really helps me break down players and teams....

but I think situations are the most important thing.....

certainly familiarity equals more success.....think i may try and look at my results where i posted OU or Big 12 teams, and off the top of my head i guarantee it's not close.....5-0 posting OU games in CBB, during CFB when i had a lot of success, it was coming from playing OU/Big 12, and i've been solid posting ranger plays in MLB.....but i have a stubbornness about the whole "by god, i'm smart enough to bet any damn thing" attitude.....and i do all right, but there seems to be something......wrong.....kind of a gut thing, i'm up to 60 posted plays under my belt, want to see what my % is after 100 and then work to maintain/improve that # over the next 100.....maybe i just don't want to admit it, but discipline is still a bit of a factor in not having a strong enough edge and just wanting some action.....not trying to beat myself up as my recent losses could have gone either way so it's not like i'm doing horrible, although my recent losses are on higher rated plays, and these are the types of plays where i feel like my edge should be strong enough so that i'm not sweating out the last 38 seconds.....

i don't like the idea of being a flat bettor and i'm going to give it some more time and make a conscious effort to raise the criteria, but it's not going to be much longer before the results don't lie.....hit 50% over a 100 games and wind up down 32 units or some shit.....fuck that

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

hey defying, i'm thinking about trying to get into the monday night tourney, if you'd like to work it like we did last time, i can put some action in for you this weekend or however you want to do it. if not, no biggie, i could deposit there but just don't want to.

Defying · Mar 5, 2011

soonerdawg1 said:
hey defying, i'm thinking about trying to get into the monday night tourney, if you'd like to work it like we did last time, i can put some action in for you this weekend or however you want to do it. if not, no biggie, i could deposit there but just don't want to.

got you SD.. how much you want. I recommend doing it in multiples of $11 and just use PS for the RX games since you hate the site so much

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

yeah, that's all i have in mind, just $11 to get into the tourney, looks like you guys have a good thing going......i run horrible on PS, i could make a 100 excuses but fact is if i deposit there it will be gone quick....PM me how you want me to get you back, i have enough in bodog so i don't mind matching the $11 i owe you with $11 of my own, i want to make sure it's worth it for you so i don't become a pain in the arse about it.....i cover my nut too, so don't think i'm crossing my fingers and hoping you lose because you're 1 leg away from hitting a 20 to 1 shot that i didn't put down LOL:toast:

always a pleasure to come through for someone when they've done me a favor, whether it's a dollar or a dime, so hit me up when you have something you like

silver7 · Mar 5, 2011

One factor I really look at, especially this time of yr when you start getting into some close games is FT shooting. A good example was Wisc. the other nite I had em, game & 2nd H, Hoosiers were very tough rite to the end. But, Badgers FT shooters were exceptional, I think @ one time they had 4 maybe 5 80%+ kids in the game. Hard to catch up facing that.

Defying · Mar 5, 2011

Sooner. I gotta wait to the d/p clears hopefully it will before Monday. That's a shame, I was going to say we should do my best bet, parlayed with your best bet. and see how many days in a row we can win. Unforunately, gotta wait for the PS to clear.

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

hey, any time you wanna try something like that let me know, doesn't matter if i owe you or not, you're all right in my book

damn cheap booze hangover, i'm just now getting around, let me know if you wanna try something as i should be laid up in the bed with the laptop till darkfall.....soonerdawg giving me the look that says, "great, guess our saturday trip to the park is shot you worthless bastard".

Defying · Mar 5, 2011

LMAO..... cheap liqour isn't worth the money you save.... particularly vodka, whiskey, or tequilla...

sorry I ruined your thread...

we should give it a try... probably for a nother day given my best bet is MSU and starts in 15 mins...

WorldNumberOne · Mar 5, 2011

i wonder if you concentrated on football and basketball games and disregarded the pointspread and just worried about picking the winner of the game. how many times the spread would get ya . ya may pick a fair share of dogs and the spread might end up helping you.

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

yeah, my handicapping is toast for at least a few hours.....for an extra 15 bucks i could at least get a more manageable hangover.....and i got enough left to do it again tonight

MSU sounds good to me, just got em at -1 (-105) for 11 bucks so i can have some action.....if it hits, i'll let you claim it if you want it, no harm no foul if it misses, nice to have some action going.....soonerdawg just gonna have to take his dump in the back yard today

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

World Number One said:
i wonder if you concentrated on football and basketball games and disregarded the pointspread and just worried about picking the winner of the game. how many times the spread would get ya . ya may pick a fair share of dogs and the spread might end up helping you.

i was thinking about this last night, isn't it something like only 20% of the time where the spread factors in? i am considering playing dogs on the ML instead of taking the points once i reach my next 100 play sample just to see what's up, the win % might suffer a few points but that should be offset by the higher payouts.....

most of the time when i'm on a dog, i usually have them projected to win SU, and i rarely play dogs greater than 7 or 8 points.....but you raise a good point, as i do try to remind myself that picking the SU winner will more often than not result in an ATS win......

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

I will say that after going back and looking at some of my posted plays, i have confirmed that a big leak in my game seems to be that i am allowing myself to get swayed by things i shouldn't.....such as Team A has won 8 straight against Team B dating back 5 years, and i am a sucker for "player x playing in front of his mother on her birthday" type angles.....those might be good supporting arguments once a decision has been made, but my best work comes when i use cold hard facts in a precise and methodical fashion like a soldier gearing up for battle.....even when i was on a very nice roll in CFB i remember bitching about this a couple times and telling people to make sure they at least glanced at my final analysis to make sure i was using solid reasoning and not just making a play based on my interpretation of non quantifiable and often meaningless angles.....look at a soonerdawg write-up that provides a final analysis containing several pieces of factual data and long proven situational spots and applying this information in a logical manner to the game at hand, and those plays have been straight winners, but show me a soonerdawg write-up where i try to play x's and o's guru or try to predict how many points a player will score because his dear ole ma' is in the crowd, and you get.....well, these types of threads from me usually follow shortly after.

soonerdawg1 · Mar 5, 2011

silver7 said:
One factor I really look at, especially this time of yr when you start getting into some close games is FT shooting. A good example was Wisc. the other nite I had em, game & 2nd H, Hoosiers were very tough rite to the end. But, Badgers FT shooters were exceptional, I think @ one time they had 4 maybe 5 80%+ kids in the game. Hard to catch up facing that.

i agree with you. i could do a better job here, as often i will just glance at the % when capping and as long as there is no eye opening discrepancy between the teams involved i don't pay it much attention. i don't know what's worse -- finding myself on a team that can't make free throws or being on a team with a kicker that can't kick. definitely something i should take a little more time to consider. i think i may try to find spots where 1 team has a history of committing a lot of fouls facing a solid FT shooting team....if nothing else it might put me onto something i would not have otherwise seen.....

and as far as basketball.....i handicap a game MUCH quicker than i do football because i don't use as much information, and it's no surprise that my basketball results have not been that good.....being a believer in the harder you work philosophy, i now must come to terms with a 2nd flaw in my capping:

the tendency to be a lazy bum by saying "well, that's good enough" even when i know i need to cross reference a couple things or at the very least take a few minutes to see what others are saying about the game to make sure i haven't overlooked something. i'll get there, hopefully by football season i will have a consistent enough approach to capping games so that i can be satisfied with the effort win or lose.

JakeT. · Mar 5, 2011

Following trends....

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