Cardinals should sell high on Rasmus
St. Louis has holes to fill, and this flawed outfielder is still young enough to be in high demand
By Jason Catania
ESPN The Magazine
If there's one person in the Cardinals' organization who might actually be relieved by the extensive coverage this spring of Albert Pujols' failed contract negotiations and Adam Wainwright's season-ending injury, it's Colby Rasmus.
Without all the hubbub over Al and Adam, the focus in camp very likely would be on the player who was the most divisive in St. Louis last season. That's the rep that Rasmus gained, for better or worse, after his late-season tiff with manager Tony La Russa led to a decrease in playing time and sparked reports that the center fielder wanted to be traded.
So why doesn't GM John Mozeliak take him up on the offer?
Because when it comes to trading a 24-year-old former first-rounder who plays an up-the-middle position, is under team control for another four years and showed developing skills in just his second season ... well, you just don't. Unless there are warning signs -- beyond any motivation or attitude issues -- that are easy to overlook but hard to ignore.
<OFFER>A cursory glance at Rasmus' season indicates vast improvement in everything from his rate stats (.251/.307/.407 in 2009 to .276/.361/.498 in 2010) to his counting ones, including noticeable increases in homers, runs, RBIs and steals. That he did this in 10 fewer at-bats is all the more impressive.
That's also what makes this next stat all the more foreboding: 148 strikeouts. Rasmus' K total skyrocketed by 53 whiffs from 2009. The left-handed hitter's strikeout rate for the season translated to 31.9 percent, which means he struck out in nearly one-third of his at-bats, the fifth-worst rate in baseball. That's not just bad; it very possibly could be irreparably bad.
The four hitters who K'd more frequently than Rasmus last season?
Mark Reynolds: 42.3 percent
Adam Dunn: 35.7 percent
Drew Stubbs: 32.7 percent
Carlos Pena: 32.6 percent
It gets worse. Over the past five seasons, Rasmus' 31.9 percent K rate was "topped" only 19 times by just 10 different players. That tells you two things: One, it's hard for hitters to strike out that often; and two, if a hitter does strike out that often, chances are, he's going to continue to do so.
Here are those 10 players, along with the number of times they've struck out in at least 30 percent of their at-bats over a qualifying season:
Adam Dunn (9 times/9 seasons)
Ryan Howard (4/5)
Carlos Pena (4/6)
Mark Reynolds (3/3)
Jack Cust (3/3)
B.J. Upton (2/4)
Mike Cameron (2/10)
Russell Branyan (1/1)
Drew Stubbs (1/1)
Dan Uggla (1/5)
Now, there is value within this group. Heck, there's an MVP in there. But for Rasmus, being in this company indicates that not only will his average hover around .250 on a yearly basis, he will also need to transform into more of a power hitter capable of 30-homer seasons to maintain his offensive value and avoid falling into a career as a skilled but ultimately flawed journeyman type. (Don't be fooled by Rasmus' batting average spike last year: His .354 average on balls in play was 72 points higher than his 2009 BABIP, which means he got some good bounces.)
If Rasmus doesn't turn into Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn -- unlikely, given his size and skill set -- he may well turn out to be Mike Cameron or B.J. Upton. For all Cameron's value during his 16-year career, he's also played for seven different teams. And it's not hard to see Upton going down a similar path once he exceeds his arbitration years. Frankly, if the Rays could go back four years and trade Upton after his outstanding 2007 season when his value was highest, they probably would.
All of which brings us back to the idea of trading Rasmus. Apart from his own issues with putting bat on ball, there are two problems the Cardinals are facing as an organization.
Problem No. 1: The loss of Wainwright
Without their ace, the Cardinals' playoff hopes take a massive hit, especially after the Brewers and Cubs improved their rotations this offseason and the reigning Reds currently have six starters. St. Louis' sudden lack of an ace leaves the team even further behind. If the Cardinals are, in fact, still thinking 2011 or bust, the best option could be trading for an appropriate replacement, and dangling Rasmus could intrigue teams like the Twins (Francisco Liriano), Marlins (Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco) or Rays (James Shields). But that might not be the most prudent path, even if -- or rather because -- 2011 may be Pujols' last go-round.
Problem No. 2: Little minor league talent
Trying to find impactful major league-ready talent among St. Louis farmhands is like searching for subtlety in a Lady Gaga performance -- you're looking in the wrong place. Any gain from the 2009 trades of former top prospects Brett Wallace and Chris Perez (ostensibly, Matt Holliday), came at the expense of the future, and now the Cards are feeling the effect. Keith Law rated just three Cardinals in his Top 100 prospects list. None of those three -- Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Zack Cox -- is older than 21, and there's just one full season among them. In Law's organizational rankings, St. Louis came in at a mediocre No. 14, and the key takeaway in his evaluation is that there are plenty of "fifth starters, quality relievers, [and] fourth outfielders."
In other words, there won't be many reinforcements from within. What's worse, given the construct of the team -- a few studs surrounded by marginal role players -- if the Cards are going to go all-in on 2011 while they still have Pujols, any midseason prospect trades would only further deplete a system that can't afford the hit.
Rasmus, though, is a commodity that is both tradable and valuable. He's young and talented enough to bring immediate help to the Cards and future talent to restock their minor leagues. He's also not irreplaceable: Jon Jay may not have the same upside, but he did hit .300 in his first exposure to the bigs, while actually taking PT away from a slumping Rasmus in July and August.
The key here is timing. Right now, Rasmus is seen as a cost-controlled player with limitless five-tool potential, the type of chip that would get 29 other GMs drooling. But if Mozeliak waits too long, Rasmus' tip-of-the-iceberg talents could be exposed as should-have-seen-this-coming flaws. Not to mention, another trade request from Rasmus, who will have to deal with La Russa for at least one more season, would kill the Cardinals' leverage.
And in turn, that could kill not only their 2011 season without Wainwright, but also their future without Pujols.
ESPN Insider
St. Louis has holes to fill, and this flawed outfielder is still young enough to be in high demand
By Jason Catania
ESPN The Magazine
If there's one person in the Cardinals' organization who might actually be relieved by the extensive coverage this spring of Albert Pujols' failed contract negotiations and Adam Wainwright's season-ending injury, it's Colby Rasmus.
Without all the hubbub over Al and Adam, the focus in camp very likely would be on the player who was the most divisive in St. Louis last season. That's the rep that Rasmus gained, for better or worse, after his late-season tiff with manager Tony La Russa led to a decrease in playing time and sparked reports that the center fielder wanted to be traded.
So why doesn't GM John Mozeliak take him up on the offer?
Because when it comes to trading a 24-year-old former first-rounder who plays an up-the-middle position, is under team control for another four years and showed developing skills in just his second season ... well, you just don't. Unless there are warning signs -- beyond any motivation or attitude issues -- that are easy to overlook but hard to ignore.
<OFFER>A cursory glance at Rasmus' season indicates vast improvement in everything from his rate stats (.251/.307/.407 in 2009 to .276/.361/.498 in 2010) to his counting ones, including noticeable increases in homers, runs, RBIs and steals. That he did this in 10 fewer at-bats is all the more impressive.
That's also what makes this next stat all the more foreboding: 148 strikeouts. Rasmus' K total skyrocketed by 53 whiffs from 2009. The left-handed hitter's strikeout rate for the season translated to 31.9 percent, which means he struck out in nearly one-third of his at-bats, the fifth-worst rate in baseball. That's not just bad; it very possibly could be irreparably bad.
The four hitters who K'd more frequently than Rasmus last season?
Mark Reynolds: 42.3 percent
Adam Dunn: 35.7 percent
Drew Stubbs: 32.7 percent
Carlos Pena: 32.6 percent
It gets worse. Over the past five seasons, Rasmus' 31.9 percent K rate was "topped" only 19 times by just 10 different players. That tells you two things: One, it's hard for hitters to strike out that often; and two, if a hitter does strike out that often, chances are, he's going to continue to do so.
Here are those 10 players, along with the number of times they've struck out in at least 30 percent of their at-bats over a qualifying season:
Adam Dunn (9 times/9 seasons)
Ryan Howard (4/5)
Carlos Pena (4/6)
Mark Reynolds (3/3)
Jack Cust (3/3)
B.J. Upton (2/4)
Mike Cameron (2/10)
Russell Branyan (1/1)
Drew Stubbs (1/1)
Dan Uggla (1/5)
Now, there is value within this group. Heck, there's an MVP in there. But for Rasmus, being in this company indicates that not only will his average hover around .250 on a yearly basis, he will also need to transform into more of a power hitter capable of 30-homer seasons to maintain his offensive value and avoid falling into a career as a skilled but ultimately flawed journeyman type. (Don't be fooled by Rasmus' batting average spike last year: His .354 average on balls in play was 72 points higher than his 2009 BABIP, which means he got some good bounces.)
If Rasmus doesn't turn into Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn -- unlikely, given his size and skill set -- he may well turn out to be Mike Cameron or B.J. Upton. For all Cameron's value during his 16-year career, he's also played for seven different teams. And it's not hard to see Upton going down a similar path once he exceeds his arbitration years. Frankly, if the Rays could go back four years and trade Upton after his outstanding 2007 season when his value was highest, they probably would.
All of which brings us back to the idea of trading Rasmus. Apart from his own issues with putting bat on ball, there are two problems the Cardinals are facing as an organization.
Problem No. 1: The loss of Wainwright
Without their ace, the Cardinals' playoff hopes take a massive hit, especially after the Brewers and Cubs improved their rotations this offseason and the reigning Reds currently have six starters. St. Louis' sudden lack of an ace leaves the team even further behind. If the Cardinals are, in fact, still thinking 2011 or bust, the best option could be trading for an appropriate replacement, and dangling Rasmus could intrigue teams like the Twins (Francisco Liriano), Marlins (Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco) or Rays (James Shields). But that might not be the most prudent path, even if -- or rather because -- 2011 may be Pujols' last go-round.
Problem No. 2: Little minor league talent
Trying to find impactful major league-ready talent among St. Louis farmhands is like searching for subtlety in a Lady Gaga performance -- you're looking in the wrong place. Any gain from the 2009 trades of former top prospects Brett Wallace and Chris Perez (ostensibly, Matt Holliday), came at the expense of the future, and now the Cards are feeling the effect. Keith Law rated just three Cardinals in his Top 100 prospects list. None of those three -- Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Zack Cox -- is older than 21, and there's just one full season among them. In Law's organizational rankings, St. Louis came in at a mediocre No. 14, and the key takeaway in his evaluation is that there are plenty of "fifth starters, quality relievers, [and] fourth outfielders."
In other words, there won't be many reinforcements from within. What's worse, given the construct of the team -- a few studs surrounded by marginal role players -- if the Cards are going to go all-in on 2011 while they still have Pujols, any midseason prospect trades would only further deplete a system that can't afford the hit.
Rasmus, though, is a commodity that is both tradable and valuable. He's young and talented enough to bring immediate help to the Cards and future talent to restock their minor leagues. He's also not irreplaceable: Jon Jay may not have the same upside, but he did hit .300 in his first exposure to the bigs, while actually taking PT away from a slumping Rasmus in July and August.
The key here is timing. Right now, Rasmus is seen as a cost-controlled player with limitless five-tool potential, the type of chip that would get 29 other GMs drooling. But if Mozeliak waits too long, Rasmus' tip-of-the-iceberg talents could be exposed as should-have-seen-this-coming flaws. Not to mention, another trade request from Rasmus, who will have to deal with La Russa for at least one more season, would kill the Cardinals' leverage.
And in turn, that could kill not only their 2011 season without Wainwright, but also their future without Pujols.
ESPN Insider
