Odds to win the big dance 2011

@ THE GREEK
monday 3-14-2011

3/15/2011 5:30 PMTeam to win the 2011 NCAA Championship

2251Ohio State +465
2252Duke +425
2253Kansas +425
2254Pittsburgh +645
2255North Carolina +2050
2256San Diego State +2050
2257Notre Dame +2050
2258Florida +2550
2259Syracuse +2550
2260Connecticut +2550
2261Purdue +2550
2262BYU +4050
2263Kentucky +1615
2264Texas +2050
2265Louisville +2550
2266Wisconsin +5250
2267West Virginia +10250
2268Arizona +8550
2269Vanderbilt +12550
2270Kansas State +3850
2271Xavier +25250
2272Cincinnati +8550
2273Georgetown +8550
2274St Johns +5250
2275Temple +15250
2276Texas A&M +25250
2277Washington +4050
2278UCLA +12550
2279George Mason +25250
2280Michigan +25250
2281UNLV +10250
2282Butler +20250
2283Villanova +15250
2284Tennessee +20250
2285Illinois +10250
2286Old Dominion +12550
2287Georgia +30250
2288Penn State +22550
2289Florida State +25250
2290Michigan State +8050
2291Any Other Team +1615

from kenpom.



The numbers in each table represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question.
Rd3 Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in...
1. 1E Ohio St. 98.9 83.2 62.0 47.7 30.9 21.6 5
2. 1W Duke 98.3 84.5 56.5 40.3 23.5 15.3 7
3. 1SW Kansas 96.9 72.6 52.4 35.0 23.6 12.4 8
4. 1SE Pittsburgh 95.1 76.5 47.4 31.8 16.8 7.5 13
5. 4W Texas 86.8 67.9 32.0 20.4 10.2 5.8 17
6. 3SW Purdue 91.8 68.0 41.8 20.9 12.0 5.1 20
7. 2W San Diego St. 92.7 70.1 47.1 20.7 9.5 5.0 20
8. 2SW Notre Dame 91.3 66.6 36.2 16.8 9.1 3.5 28
9. 4E Kentucky 88.7 61.0 23.1 13.9 6.5 3.4 30
10. 3SE Brigham Young 85.4 55.7 35.4 17.0 7.5 2.7 37
11. 4SW Louisville 87.6 60.8 25.2 13.0 6.8 2.5 39
12. 3E Syracuse 90.1 62.2 35.2 12.9 5.4 2.5 40
13. 4SE Wisconsin 61.0 38.5 20.4 12.8 6.2 2.5 40
14. 2E North Carolina 89.7 52.4 28.6 9.7 3.8 1.6 61
15. 2SE Florida 87.8 57.8 29.4 12.2 4.6 1.4 73
16. 3W Connecticut 83.3 48.3 22.1 7.2 2.5 1.0 101
17. 7E Washington 72.7 37.7 19.7 6.3 2.3 1.0 104
18. 12SE Utah St. 60.1 26.9 11.9 6.4 2.5 0.8 125
19. 13SE Belmont 39.0 20.5 8.7 4.6 1.7 0.5 189
20. 9SW Illinois 51.7 14.4 7.0 2.9 1.3 0.4 276
21. 6W Cincinnati 56.6 28.7 11.8 3.3 1.0 0.4 281
22. 11SE Gonzaga 53.0 22.2 11.1 3.9 1.2 0.3 338
23. 8SW UNLV 48.3 12.8 6.0 2.4 1.0 0.3 363
24. 5E West Virginia 57.6 22.3 5.5 2.4 0.7 0.3 373
25. 5W Arizona 76.8 24.1 6.1 2.4 0.6 0.2 482
26. 6SW Georgetown 60.9 20.0 8.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 506
27. 6SE St. John's 47.0 18.5 8.7 2.8 0.8 0.2 550
28. 5SW Vanderbilt 55.7 21.3 5.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 620
29. 5SE Kansas St. 39.9 14.0 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.2 626
30. 11E Marquette 52.5 19.4 7.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 762
31. 10SE Michigan St. 55.0 22.9 8.6 2.5 0.6 0.1 765
32. 11W Missouri 43.4 19.3 6.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 833
33. 8E George Mason 50.5 8.5 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 890
34. 12E Clemson 30.9 11.3 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 947
35. 9E Villanova 49.5 8.2 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 963
36. 6E Xavier 47.5 16.5 6.0 1.3 0.3 0.09 1167
37. 10SW Florida St. 50.8 16.2 5.2 1.4 0.4 0.09 1173
38. 7W Temple 51.0 14.7 6.0 1.3 0.3 0.08 1183
39. 7SW Texas A&M 49.2 15.4 4.9 1.2 0.4 0.07 1337
40. 10W Penn St. 49.0 13.8 5.5 1.2 0.3 0.07 1407
41. 12SW Richmond 44.3 14.9 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.06 1657
42. 8W Michigan 56.8 9.5 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.06 1761
43. 7SE UCLA 45.0 16.8 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.05 1841
44. 11SW USC 31.6 9.1 3.2 0.8 0.3 0.05 1928
45. 9SE Old Dominion 51.1 11.8 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.05 2035
46. 8SE Butler 48.9 10.9 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.04 2506
47. 10E Georgia 27.3 8.4 2.5 0.4 0.08 0.02 6107
48. 9W Tennessee 43.2 5.9 1.5 0.4 0.07 0.02 6151
49. 12E UAB 11.5 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.02 0.005 21266
50. 13W Oakland 13.2 4.9 0.7 0.2 0.02 0.004 24675
51. 14SE Wofford 14.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.02 0.001 67960
52. 12W Memphis 23.2 3.1 0.3 0.05 0.006 0.0008 131751
53. 14W Bucknell 16.7 3.6 0.6 0.06 0.006 0.0007 142009
54. 13SW Morehead St. 12.4 3.0 0.3 0.04 0.006 0.0005 192702
55. 13E Princeton 11.3 2.5 0.2 0.04 0.004 0.0005 195063
56. 11SW VCU 7.5 1.2 0.2 0.03 0.005 0.0005 203187
57. 14SW St. Peter's 8.2 1.7 0.2 0.02 0.003 0.0002 560787
58. 15SE UC Santa Barbara 12.2 2.6 0.3 0.03 0.003 0.0002 624434
59. 14E Indiana St. 9.9 1.9 0.3 0.02 0.001 0.0001 751535
60. 15SW Akron 8.7 1.8 0.2 0.02 0.002 0.0001 854892
61. 15W Northern Colorado 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.01 0.001 <0.0001 1178554
62. 15E Long Island 10.3 1.5 0.2 0.01 0.0009 <0.0001 1216609
63. 16SE UNC Asheville 4.0 0.8 0.08 0.009 0.0007 <0.0001 2883054
64. 16SW Boston U. 3.1 0.3 0.02 0.002 0.0001 <0.0001 24701695
65. 16W Hampton 1.7 0.2 0.008 0.0004 <0.0001 <0.0001 261976455
66. 16SE Ark. Little Rock 0.9 0.09 0.004 0.0003 <0.0001 <0.0001 454126213
67. 16E Texas San Antonio 0.9 0.06 0.002 0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1028345510
68. 16E Alabama St. 0.1 0.003 <0.001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1090873445634

Why is Utah state a 12 seed



Rated before winning their tourney...

They won in Maui

They won at MSG

They got a good draw.

Ill take CT +2550

Louisville at 25 to 1 looks like a good value to me.

Even though they failed in the Big East, I'm taking a shot with ND

the table is difficult to read in this format, you can view it on the free part of his site clearly. But useful to determine true odds of a team winning, for instance odds in excess of 28 to 1 on nd would be a good bet. or utah st at 125 to 1.

K-State as a longsh ot to win it all