How Texas should handle Neftali Feliz
Rangers should increase his innings this year and start him next season
By Matt Meyers
ESPN Insider
Typically, when you're coming off a World Series appearance, spring training is fairly free of controversy. But that hasn't been the case for the Texas Rangers. Now that all the Michael Young trade-demand drama has died down, the Rangers must figure out what to do with Neftali Feliz. Last week, he said he wanted to remain the team's closer even though the team was trying to stretch him out as a starter. And then, after shutting down the Los Angeles Dodgers over four innings Tuesday, the 22-year-old flamethrower said he's on board with becoming a starting pitcher.
In the long run, it makes sense for both Feliz and the Rangers if he's in the rotation. As he probably figured out, even average starters earn a lot more money than elite closers. And that's because, as the Rangers know full well, even average starters are usually more valuable than good relievers. Of course, that's all true in a vacuum, and the 2011 season will not be played in one. The Rangers will likely be in a three-team battle for the AL West title, and messing with Feliz's success from 2010 could easily undermine their season.
<OFFER>With Feliz in the bullpen, the Rangers have a pretty good idea of what they're going to get. Sure, reliever performance tends to be volatile from year to year, but Feliz's outstanding strikeout rate (9.9 per nine for his career) makes him less susceptible to variances on balls in play. In the rotation, however, Texas doesn't know how he will perform. The right-hander has all of the tools to be a great starter and is earning raves for his new cutter, but he still hasn't shown he can succeed as a starter in the regular season. Even in the minors, when Feliz was groomed mostly as a starter, he never threw more than 128 innings in a season.
The Rangers are likely emboldened by the success of C.J. Wilson, who was converted into a starter last year after five years as a reliever and posted a 3.35 ERA in over 200 innings. But there's a big difference between Wilson and Feliz: While the former was a good reliever, the Rangers weren't putting much on the line by acquiescing to his request to start. If he failed, Texas wasn't risking one of the most valuable assets in baseball.
If the Feliz conversion goes poorly, we could be looking at another Joba Chamberlain-type of season, where a pitcher enters the season with mixed signals about his role. Even if Feliz begins the year in the rotation, you can be sure he'd be on an innings limit and likely converted back to the bullpen at some point during the season. Largely because of Feliz, Texas' bullpen is one of the best in baseball. (Rangers relievers combined for a 3.38 ERA in 2010, second-best in the AL.)
If the Rangers want to maximize Feliz's value, they should prepare him for starting in 2012 by announcing right now that this will be his final season in the bullpen. That way, they won't have to deal with all of the "Joba Rules"-type scenarios where every outing raises questions about his role.
Second, they should do everything they can to use him in high-leverage situations. Feliz allowed just one run in seven postseason appearances last fall, but his performance was practically worthless because four of those appearances came with Rangers leading by four or more runs. In fact, only once did he enter a game in which the difference was less than two runs in either direction. And during the regular season, Feliz came into a game with a lead of three runs or more in 26 of his 78 appearances (33.3 percent of the time). Frank Francisco, a markedly worse reliever, entered games with a lead of three or more 32.1 percent of the time. In some sense, Feliz was pitching in garbage time more frequently than Francisco, a far less effective pitcher.
Obviously, the Rangers aren't the only team that lets the save rule dictate their closer usage. And part of the reason the gap between starter and reliever value is so large is because teams often use their closers in low-leverage situations. But this hasn't always been the case, and relievers can generate far more value if they're allowed to. For example, in 1982 Goose Gossage finished fifth in the AL in wins above replacement for pitchers, even though he was pitching out of the bullpen. How? He threw 93 innings in varying high-leverage situations and was not a slave to the save. Feliz had only a 2.4 WAR in 2010 because he pitched just 69 1/3 innings and was often wasted in low-leverage spots. There were no relievers among the top 10 of pitcher WAR in 2010, but if Feliz is allowed to throw a few more innings and not waste so many in low-leverage situations, he could crack the list.
The Rangers have garnered a lot of praise under Nolan Ryan for their old-school approach to pitcher usage. It's time to take it one step further: Loosen the reins on Feliz in the bullpen and let him pitch in a traditional fireman role. Not only would it maximize his value in 2011, but some of those extra innings could also help prepare him for starting in 2012.
Rangers should increase his innings this year and start him next season
By Matt Meyers
ESPN Insider
Typically, when you're coming off a World Series appearance, spring training is fairly free of controversy. But that hasn't been the case for the Texas Rangers. Now that all the Michael Young trade-demand drama has died down, the Rangers must figure out what to do with Neftali Feliz. Last week, he said he wanted to remain the team's closer even though the team was trying to stretch him out as a starter. And then, after shutting down the Los Angeles Dodgers over four innings Tuesday, the 22-year-old flamethrower said he's on board with becoming a starting pitcher.
In the long run, it makes sense for both Feliz and the Rangers if he's in the rotation. As he probably figured out, even average starters earn a lot more money than elite closers. And that's because, as the Rangers know full well, even average starters are usually more valuable than good relievers. Of course, that's all true in a vacuum, and the 2011 season will not be played in one. The Rangers will likely be in a three-team battle for the AL West title, and messing with Feliz's success from 2010 could easily undermine their season.
<OFFER>With Feliz in the bullpen, the Rangers have a pretty good idea of what they're going to get. Sure, reliever performance tends to be volatile from year to year, but Feliz's outstanding strikeout rate (9.9 per nine for his career) makes him less susceptible to variances on balls in play. In the rotation, however, Texas doesn't know how he will perform. The right-hander has all of the tools to be a great starter and is earning raves for his new cutter, but he still hasn't shown he can succeed as a starter in the regular season. Even in the minors, when Feliz was groomed mostly as a starter, he never threw more than 128 innings in a season.
The Rangers are likely emboldened by the success of C.J. Wilson, who was converted into a starter last year after five years as a reliever and posted a 3.35 ERA in over 200 innings. But there's a big difference between Wilson and Feliz: While the former was a good reliever, the Rangers weren't putting much on the line by acquiescing to his request to start. If he failed, Texas wasn't risking one of the most valuable assets in baseball.
If the Feliz conversion goes poorly, we could be looking at another Joba Chamberlain-type of season, where a pitcher enters the season with mixed signals about his role. Even if Feliz begins the year in the rotation, you can be sure he'd be on an innings limit and likely converted back to the bullpen at some point during the season. Largely because of Feliz, Texas' bullpen is one of the best in baseball. (Rangers relievers combined for a 3.38 ERA in 2010, second-best in the AL.)
If the Rangers want to maximize Feliz's value, they should prepare him for starting in 2012 by announcing right now that this will be his final season in the bullpen. That way, they won't have to deal with all of the "Joba Rules"-type scenarios where every outing raises questions about his role.
Second, they should do everything they can to use him in high-leverage situations. Feliz allowed just one run in seven postseason appearances last fall, but his performance was practically worthless because four of those appearances came with Rangers leading by four or more runs. In fact, only once did he enter a game in which the difference was less than two runs in either direction. And during the regular season, Feliz came into a game with a lead of three runs or more in 26 of his 78 appearances (33.3 percent of the time). Frank Francisco, a markedly worse reliever, entered games with a lead of three or more 32.1 percent of the time. In some sense, Feliz was pitching in garbage time more frequently than Francisco, a far less effective pitcher.
Obviously, the Rangers aren't the only team that lets the save rule dictate their closer usage. And part of the reason the gap between starter and reliever value is so large is because teams often use their closers in low-leverage situations. But this hasn't always been the case, and relievers can generate far more value if they're allowed to. For example, in 1982 Goose Gossage finished fifth in the AL in wins above replacement for pitchers, even though he was pitching out of the bullpen. How? He threw 93 innings in varying high-leverage situations and was not a slave to the save. Feliz had only a 2.4 WAR in 2010 because he pitched just 69 1/3 innings and was often wasted in low-leverage spots. There were no relievers among the top 10 of pitcher WAR in 2010, but if Feliz is allowed to throw a few more innings and not waste so many in low-leverage situations, he could crack the list.
The Rangers have garnered a lot of praise under Nolan Ryan for their old-school approach to pitcher usage. It's time to take it one step further: Loosen the reins on Feliz in the bullpen and let him pitch in a traditional fireman role. Not only would it maximize his value in 2011, but some of those extra innings could also help prepare him for starting in 2012.
