The Rangers' Neftali Feliz decision
By Buster Olney
ESPN Insider
In a vacuum, the Neftali Feliz puzzle would be easy to solve. In a world where the Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners didn't matter, it would be best for the Texas Rangers -- and for Feliz, really -- to assign the hard-throwing right-hander to their rotation. He appears to have the stuff to be a good starter, and the math is simple: If Feliz develops into a front-line starter, the Rangers would have one of their best arms working 160 to 180 innings, rather than 70, as they move forward.
But the Rangers are not running this race alone, and as they work to repeat as the American League West champions, maybe the best and surest part of their pitching staff coming back is their 2010 closer -- Feliz, who compiled an 0.88 WHIP last year, with 40 saves.
Texas will have questions at the back end of its rotation no matter what it does with Feliz, and if club officials return him to the bullpen after he makes his next exhibition start Saturday, they will at least know that they have one of the majors' best closers wrapping up games for them.
If they open the year with Feliz in the rotation, they will be taking calculated gambles -- that they can find a suitable closer among their other relievers, such as Alexi Ogando, and that Feliz's talent will actually manifest in the rotation.
The Minnesota Twins did this with Johan Santana, who went from being one of the best middle relievers in the majors to taking a turn as the best pitcher on the planet for a time. The New York Yankees went down this road with Joba Chamberlain, and it turned out badly; the Yankees tried it with Phil Hughes, and it has worked out well.
But the Yankees have had Mariano Rivera working the ninth inning for the past 14 seasons, which gave New York a greater margin for error in making its decisions on Hughes and Chamberlain. The Rangers don't have that kind of bullpen safety net if they move Feliz to the rotation; they will be taking a high leap of faith in shifting Feliz to the rotation. If Feliz made the transition seamlessly to the rotation and Ogando turned out to be a good closer, the gambit could pay off in a big way. If Ogando and other relievers can't fill the closer's role, then a lot of the work of a rotation that is not deep could be lost.
The safe play, of course -- the decision that would prevent the Rangers from being open to the most second-guessing -- would be to move Feliz back to the bullpen. The bold play would be to take a chance on Ogando as the closer.
It's a fascinating choice for the defending American League champions.
<OFFER>
If the Rangers keep Feliz in the bullpen, their rotation could look something like this:
C.J. Wilson
Colby Lewis
Matt Harrison
Tommy Hunter
Derek Holland
Harrison had a rough outing on Thursday, in a game that was rough for just about all of the pitchers involved.
Decision time is drawing near for Texas, writes Gil LeBreton. The Rangers' roster decisions are coming -- just not yet, Tim Cowlishaw writes.
Most rival officials and evaluators I've spoken with about the AL West view the Rangers as the favorite -- by about three to five wins -- because of the depth and potential of their everyday lineup, which has been wrecking pitching this spring.
• The hits just keep on coming for the D-backs this spring: J.J. Putz is out with a stiff back.
• Wally The Beer Man offered his defense in his trial. Closing arguments in this case are set for Monday.
• This will be a game-changer for a lot of fans: An app that gives fans a direct line to concessions.
• With Brandon Belt making a strong impression with the Giants this spring, Aubrey Huff will start to get more time in left field, Andrew Pavlovic writes.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers' attendance is down 42 percent this spring; the Angels' attendance is down about 50 percent.
• The New York Mets dropped Luis Castillo, and now Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus and Justin Turner will have shots at the wide-open second-base job.
Bob Klapisch writes that Castillo was the team's best option at second base. Castillo's OPS of .604 ranked 291st among the 304 major leaguers with at least 250 plate appearances last year.
One thing: I'm a little surprised that the Mets didn't just cut Oliver Perez on the same day, to get all of the transactional ugliness out of the way. The front office has been working to alter the negativity that hangs over the franchise, and instead of moving past the Oliver Perez era, the Mets now will see a lot of the coverage about their team framed around the left-hander until a final decision on his place on the roster is made. Perez retired all three hitters he faced.
Meanwhile, there is this: Within court papers, there is a contention that a $54 million loan in 2004 should have tipped off the Wilpons that something was awry with Bernie Madoff.
• Clark Spencer writes that the Marlins have had conversations about Castillo, who could play second for Florida, with Omar Infante shifting to third base and Matt Dominguez opening the year in the minors. This wouldn't be a shocker, because while the Marlins are convinced that Dominguez is one of the best third basemen on the planet defensively, they do wonder if he'll struggle at the outset of his major league career -- and they could conceivably give Dominguez some time in the minors early this season, to get settled. In essence, Castillo could be a short-term, inexpensive stopgap.
• If the Philadelphia Phillies want Castillo, he is available, David Murphy writes.
On Friday's "Baseball Tonight," colleague Jayson Stark indicated that the Phillies' focus is really about addressing and upgrading right field, rather than second base. Maybe this is because there really aren't any impact options available to the Phillies at second; it could be easier for them to find the kind of bat they need among outfielders.
To be clear about Chase Utley's medical condition: Only the Phillies, Utley and the player's doctors know exactly what kind of surgery he is working to avoid, by meeting with specialists. Reading the tea leaves in the bits and pieces of information that have come out, officials with other teams are wondering if he is looking at some kind of microfracture surgery -- the same type of operation that required months of rehabilitation for Grady Sizemore.
• Drew Storen has had a rough spring, and he got hit hard on Friday, Adam Kilgore writes.
• Milwaukee Brewers manager Ron Roenicke hopes that Shaun Marcum will be OK. From Michael Hunt's story:
Wily Peralta, one of the candidates for the No. 5 spot in the Milwaukee rotation, had a tough day.
Dings and dents
1. Justin Morneau is trying to prove he can handle the daily rigors in his job, writes Joe Christensen.
2. The Baltimore Orioles' Derrek Lee might play today, writes Dan Connolly.
3. Aaron Hill is aiming to play on Tuesday.
4. Jake Peavy intends to pitch today, despite the flu.
5. Brad Lincoln got nailed by a liner.
6. Casey Blake could start the year on the disabled list.
7. A San Diego Padres reliever is likely to open the year on the DL, writes Bill Center.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Scot Shields retired.
2. A handshake deal between Alex Anthopoulos and Theo Epstein may have sunk a Toronto waiver claim, writes Richard Griffin.
3. One longtime general manager says that he has never seen less trade activity in any spring than he has this year -- maybe because almost all teams have no payroll flexibility at this stage of the year, he speculated, and maybe because there really isn't much inspiring available talent on the market.
4. Kevin Millwood's velocity of 85 mph didn't make a favorable impression on the Yankees the other day, and one rival evaluator mentioned that right now, he thought Millwood's best chance to get back in the big leagues was to sign with somebody and start pitching in games. "That's no way to win a job -- sitting at home," he said.
5. The Pittsburgh Pirates claimed Garrett Olson off waivers.
6. Brett Myers was named the Astros' starter for Opening Day, Zachary Levine writes.
7. The Colorado Rockies unveiled one of the worst-kept secrets in the Nationals League, Jim Armstrong writes.
8. The Tampa Bay Rays are hiding their pitchers.
9. The Boston Red Sox soon will have to decide whether to keep Dennys Reyes.
The battle for jobs
1. The back end of the Atlanta Braves' rotation is rounding into form. Jonny Venters has been crazy good this spring.
2. Clint Hurdle is working with Garrett Atkins, Rob Biertempfel writes.
3. It appears that Kyle McClellan is going to replace Adam Wainwright in the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation, and now somebody needs to replace McClellan.
4. The makeup of the Jays' bullpen is not clear, writes Mike Rutsey.
5. Bobby Cramer, one of those competing with Brandon McCarthy for the No. 5 spot in the Oakland rotation, got hit hard.
Friday's games
1. Francisco Liriano had a nice outing, walking one and striking out seven.
2. Brooks Conrad made a couple of errors and this raised some bad memories, writes Carroll Rogers. Jair Jurrjens had a good game, but is still looking for his best velocity.
3. A.J. Burnett had a bad day. The big question about Burnett late this spring, and early in the season, is this: Will a bad performance snowball on him into future outings, as it did in 2010?
4. Jorge De La Rosa pitched in a minor league game and got through it.
5. Ricky Nolasco got pounded.
6. Jaime Garcia has been erratic this spring, but remains upbeat, Derrick Goold writes.
7. Matt Cain never allows any runs.
8. Bobby Abreu mashed a couple of homers.
9. Tim Wakefield had a really ugly outing, but he will be a member of the team at the outset of this season, writes John Tomase.
10. Carlos Zambrano got knocked around, but kept his composure.
11. Asdrubal Cabrera had a really, really good day.
Other stuff
• Earl Weaver visited the Orioles' camp.
• Ryan Langerhans is having a good spring, as he takes a timeout from hosting a reality hunting show.
• Starting pitching is a concern for the Orioles, writes Jeff Zrebiec.
• One Tigers pitcher's control must improve for him to make the team.
• Jeff Niemann is working on his slider.
• Kelly Johnson is facing a contract season.
• Scouts still wonder about Jesus Montero's defense, writes Joel Sherman, who compares the potential risk of asset loss to that of Joba Chamberlain. As he mentions, in 2007 and 2008, Chamberlain could have been the centerpiece of a deal for just about any player, given how he was viewed by some evaluators -- maybe even some of those who say now that Montero won't be a catcher.
In other words: Perceptions of players zig and zag wildly in the majors.
• Jason Bartlett's glove speaks for him, writes Bill Center.
• The Rays are hopeful that Juan Cruz can be their next Joaquin Benoit.
• Scott Rolen is dismissive of questions about his durability.
• Mike Morse has slumped since his incredible run at the outset of spring exhibitions.
• There are encouraging signs from Melky Cabrera this spring, writes Bob Dutton.
• There was a motion in the Roger Clemens case.
• Vanderbilt must get better in all areas next season, writes Jeff Lockridge. On paper, the Commodores would seem to have a good chance to be pretty good next year. But on paper, they seemed to have a pretty good chance to be playing in the second round Saturday. Oh, well.
• Ichiro Suzuki has done something really admirable for his home country.
And today will be better than yesterday.
By Buster Olney
ESPN Insider
In a vacuum, the Neftali Feliz puzzle would be easy to solve. In a world where the Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners didn't matter, it would be best for the Texas Rangers -- and for Feliz, really -- to assign the hard-throwing right-hander to their rotation. He appears to have the stuff to be a good starter, and the math is simple: If Feliz develops into a front-line starter, the Rangers would have one of their best arms working 160 to 180 innings, rather than 70, as they move forward.
But the Rangers are not running this race alone, and as they work to repeat as the American League West champions, maybe the best and surest part of their pitching staff coming back is their 2010 closer -- Feliz, who compiled an 0.88 WHIP last year, with 40 saves.
Texas will have questions at the back end of its rotation no matter what it does with Feliz, and if club officials return him to the bullpen after he makes his next exhibition start Saturday, they will at least know that they have one of the majors' best closers wrapping up games for them.
If they open the year with Feliz in the rotation, they will be taking calculated gambles -- that they can find a suitable closer among their other relievers, such as Alexi Ogando, and that Feliz's talent will actually manifest in the rotation.
The Minnesota Twins did this with Johan Santana, who went from being one of the best middle relievers in the majors to taking a turn as the best pitcher on the planet for a time. The New York Yankees went down this road with Joba Chamberlain, and it turned out badly; the Yankees tried it with Phil Hughes, and it has worked out well.
But the Yankees have had Mariano Rivera working the ninth inning for the past 14 seasons, which gave New York a greater margin for error in making its decisions on Hughes and Chamberlain. The Rangers don't have that kind of bullpen safety net if they move Feliz to the rotation; they will be taking a high leap of faith in shifting Feliz to the rotation. If Feliz made the transition seamlessly to the rotation and Ogando turned out to be a good closer, the gambit could pay off in a big way. If Ogando and other relievers can't fill the closer's role, then a lot of the work of a rotation that is not deep could be lost.
The safe play, of course -- the decision that would prevent the Rangers from being open to the most second-guessing -- would be to move Feliz back to the bullpen. The bold play would be to take a chance on Ogando as the closer.
It's a fascinating choice for the defending American League champions.
<OFFER>
If the Rangers keep Feliz in the bullpen, their rotation could look something like this:
C.J. Wilson
Colby Lewis
Matt Harrison
Tommy Hunter
Derek Holland
Harrison had a rough outing on Thursday, in a game that was rough for just about all of the pitchers involved.
Decision time is drawing near for Texas, writes Gil LeBreton. The Rangers' roster decisions are coming -- just not yet, Tim Cowlishaw writes.
Most rival officials and evaluators I've spoken with about the AL West view the Rangers as the favorite -- by about three to five wins -- because of the depth and potential of their everyday lineup, which has been wrecking pitching this spring.
• The hits just keep on coming for the D-backs this spring: J.J. Putz is out with a stiff back.
• Wally The Beer Man offered his defense in his trial. Closing arguments in this case are set for Monday.
• This will be a game-changer for a lot of fans: An app that gives fans a direct line to concessions.
• With Brandon Belt making a strong impression with the Giants this spring, Aubrey Huff will start to get more time in left field, Andrew Pavlovic writes.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers' attendance is down 42 percent this spring; the Angels' attendance is down about 50 percent.
• The New York Mets dropped Luis Castillo, and now Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus and Justin Turner will have shots at the wide-open second-base job.
Bob Klapisch writes that Castillo was the team's best option at second base. Castillo's OPS of .604 ranked 291st among the 304 major leaguers with at least 250 plate appearances last year.
One thing: I'm a little surprised that the Mets didn't just cut Oliver Perez on the same day, to get all of the transactional ugliness out of the way. The front office has been working to alter the negativity that hangs over the franchise, and instead of moving past the Oliver Perez era, the Mets now will see a lot of the coverage about their team framed around the left-hander until a final decision on his place on the roster is made. Perez retired all three hitters he faced.
Meanwhile, there is this: Within court papers, there is a contention that a $54 million loan in 2004 should have tipped off the Wilpons that something was awry with Bernie Madoff.
• Clark Spencer writes that the Marlins have had conversations about Castillo, who could play second for Florida, with Omar Infante shifting to third base and Matt Dominguez opening the year in the minors. This wouldn't be a shocker, because while the Marlins are convinced that Dominguez is one of the best third basemen on the planet defensively, they do wonder if he'll struggle at the outset of his major league career -- and they could conceivably give Dominguez some time in the minors early this season, to get settled. In essence, Castillo could be a short-term, inexpensive stopgap.
• If the Philadelphia Phillies want Castillo, he is available, David Murphy writes.
On Friday's "Baseball Tonight," colleague Jayson Stark indicated that the Phillies' focus is really about addressing and upgrading right field, rather than second base. Maybe this is because there really aren't any impact options available to the Phillies at second; it could be easier for them to find the kind of bat they need among outfielders.
To be clear about Chase Utley's medical condition: Only the Phillies, Utley and the player's doctors know exactly what kind of surgery he is working to avoid, by meeting with specialists. Reading the tea leaves in the bits and pieces of information that have come out, officials with other teams are wondering if he is looking at some kind of microfracture surgery -- the same type of operation that required months of rehabilitation for Grady Sizemore.
• Drew Storen has had a rough spring, and he got hit hard on Friday, Adam Kilgore writes.
• Milwaukee Brewers manager Ron Roenicke hopes that Shaun Marcum will be OK. From Michael Hunt's story:
- "Marcum is pretty good today," Roenicke said. "He'll see a doctor (today), then we'll have a much better idea of what we're going to do with him after today."
Does that mean Roenicke might be concerned that he will have to fill another temporary spot in his starting rotation?
"I hope not," he said."I just talked to him, so I'm hoping he's OK. We may push him back some days or whatever we need to do. He just told me not to worry about it."
But if Marcum misses his last couple of spring starts, he might not be ready to follow Yovani Gallardo in the starting rotation when the season begins.
Wily Peralta, one of the candidates for the No. 5 spot in the Milwaukee rotation, had a tough day.
Dings and dents
1. Justin Morneau is trying to prove he can handle the daily rigors in his job, writes Joe Christensen.
2. The Baltimore Orioles' Derrek Lee might play today, writes Dan Connolly.
3. Aaron Hill is aiming to play on Tuesday.
4. Jake Peavy intends to pitch today, despite the flu.
5. Brad Lincoln got nailed by a liner.
6. Casey Blake could start the year on the disabled list.
7. A San Diego Padres reliever is likely to open the year on the DL, writes Bill Center.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Scot Shields retired.
2. A handshake deal between Alex Anthopoulos and Theo Epstein may have sunk a Toronto waiver claim, writes Richard Griffin.
3. One longtime general manager says that he has never seen less trade activity in any spring than he has this year -- maybe because almost all teams have no payroll flexibility at this stage of the year, he speculated, and maybe because there really isn't much inspiring available talent on the market.
4. Kevin Millwood's velocity of 85 mph didn't make a favorable impression on the Yankees the other day, and one rival evaluator mentioned that right now, he thought Millwood's best chance to get back in the big leagues was to sign with somebody and start pitching in games. "That's no way to win a job -- sitting at home," he said.
5. The Pittsburgh Pirates claimed Garrett Olson off waivers.
6. Brett Myers was named the Astros' starter for Opening Day, Zachary Levine writes.
7. The Colorado Rockies unveiled one of the worst-kept secrets in the Nationals League, Jim Armstrong writes.
8. The Tampa Bay Rays are hiding their pitchers.
9. The Boston Red Sox soon will have to decide whether to keep Dennys Reyes.
The battle for jobs
1. The back end of the Atlanta Braves' rotation is rounding into form. Jonny Venters has been crazy good this spring.
2. Clint Hurdle is working with Garrett Atkins, Rob Biertempfel writes.
3. It appears that Kyle McClellan is going to replace Adam Wainwright in the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation, and now somebody needs to replace McClellan.
4. The makeup of the Jays' bullpen is not clear, writes Mike Rutsey.
5. Bobby Cramer, one of those competing with Brandon McCarthy for the No. 5 spot in the Oakland rotation, got hit hard.
Friday's games
1. Francisco Liriano had a nice outing, walking one and striking out seven.
2. Brooks Conrad made a couple of errors and this raised some bad memories, writes Carroll Rogers. Jair Jurrjens had a good game, but is still looking for his best velocity.
3. A.J. Burnett had a bad day. The big question about Burnett late this spring, and early in the season, is this: Will a bad performance snowball on him into future outings, as it did in 2010?
4. Jorge De La Rosa pitched in a minor league game and got through it.
5. Ricky Nolasco got pounded.
6. Jaime Garcia has been erratic this spring, but remains upbeat, Derrick Goold writes.
7. Matt Cain never allows any runs.
8. Bobby Abreu mashed a couple of homers.
9. Tim Wakefield had a really ugly outing, but he will be a member of the team at the outset of this season, writes John Tomase.
10. Carlos Zambrano got knocked around, but kept his composure.
11. Asdrubal Cabrera had a really, really good day.
Other stuff
• Earl Weaver visited the Orioles' camp.
• Ryan Langerhans is having a good spring, as he takes a timeout from hosting a reality hunting show.
• Starting pitching is a concern for the Orioles, writes Jeff Zrebiec.
• One Tigers pitcher's control must improve for him to make the team.
• Jeff Niemann is working on his slider.
• Kelly Johnson is facing a contract season.
• Scouts still wonder about Jesus Montero's defense, writes Joel Sherman, who compares the potential risk of asset loss to that of Joba Chamberlain. As he mentions, in 2007 and 2008, Chamberlain could have been the centerpiece of a deal for just about any player, given how he was viewed by some evaluators -- maybe even some of those who say now that Montero won't be a catcher.
In other words: Perceptions of players zig and zag wildly in the majors.
• Jason Bartlett's glove speaks for him, writes Bill Center.
• The Rays are hopeful that Juan Cruz can be their next Joaquin Benoit.
• Scott Rolen is dismissive of questions about his durability.
• Mike Morse has slumped since his incredible run at the outset of spring exhibitions.
• There are encouraging signs from Melky Cabrera this spring, writes Bob Dutton.
• There was a motion in the Roger Clemens case.
• Vanderbilt must get better in all areas next season, writes Jeff Lockridge. On paper, the Commodores would seem to have a good chance to be pretty good next year. But on paper, they seemed to have a pretty good chance to be playing in the second round Saturday. Oh, well.
• Ichiro Suzuki has done something really admirable for his home country.
And today will be better than yesterday.
