A new season means new profits for my Run Line Chase model. There are several different variations of this model, I have been using this for the last 6 years and it has produced a 20 unit profit each year on average. I feel that I have found the most reasonable and profitable method to withstand the grind of a long MLB season. 1 unit will be to win $100
How it works:
1) Bet A- We will be using the run line of the highest moneyline favorite on the board i.e Yankees M/L -300 R/L -1.5 (-165) We would be on the Yankees -1.5 (-165). $165 to win $100
2) If the Run Line wager wins, you move onto the following day's highest moneyline favorite and wager on the run line for that team. A majority of these wagers will be under -120 or + money.
3) If the initial wager on the run line does not win, this is where my model varies from most. We follow step 1 but we dont wager on it, we just monitor it this is our variable game. If it wins we take the 1 unit loss (-$165) from the initial bet and start back with Bet A the following day.
If it loses, we start Bet B and a 5 game chase on the following day with the run line of the highest moneyline favorite. You will be chasing to make 1 unit of profit which at this point you will be wagering to win $265 ($165 from Bet A and $100 profit). Once you have reached Bet B you will chase for 5 games at which point you will have either won your initial 1 unit wager or suffered a series loss after Bet F.
The reason for this variation is that in a straight chase, you were seeing several losses on the 2nd game of the chase, so by eliminating the second game you are limiting your risk. There very well could be a Series Loss once or twice which will knock down the bankroll but at the end of the year we will see on average a 20 unit profit ($2000) Keep in mind there will be several 1 unit losses along the way as well. Other variations of this system require more risk and with this system you will rarely see a Bet F.
I start the season usually the 2nd Monday of the season and close up shop after the first week of September.
Best of luck to anyone who follows.
I will be keeping an ongoing thread for the entire season the best I can.
How it works:
1) Bet A- We will be using the run line of the highest moneyline favorite on the board i.e Yankees M/L -300 R/L -1.5 (-165) We would be on the Yankees -1.5 (-165). $165 to win $100
2) If the Run Line wager wins, you move onto the following day's highest moneyline favorite and wager on the run line for that team. A majority of these wagers will be under -120 or + money.
3) If the initial wager on the run line does not win, this is where my model varies from most. We follow step 1 but we dont wager on it, we just monitor it this is our variable game. If it wins we take the 1 unit loss (-$165) from the initial bet and start back with Bet A the following day.
If it loses, we start Bet B and a 5 game chase on the following day with the run line of the highest moneyline favorite. You will be chasing to make 1 unit of profit which at this point you will be wagering to win $265 ($165 from Bet A and $100 profit). Once you have reached Bet B you will chase for 5 games at which point you will have either won your initial 1 unit wager or suffered a series loss after Bet F.
The reason for this variation is that in a straight chase, you were seeing several losses on the 2nd game of the chase, so by eliminating the second game you are limiting your risk. There very well could be a Series Loss once or twice which will knock down the bankroll but at the end of the year we will see on average a 20 unit profit ($2000) Keep in mind there will be several 1 unit losses along the way as well. Other variations of this system require more risk and with this system you will rarely see a Bet F.
I start the season usually the 2nd Monday of the season and close up shop after the first week of September.
Best of luck to anyone who follows.
I will be keeping an ongoing thread for the entire season the best I can.
