Blue Jays would win NL Central
Swapping Toronto and St. Louis would have a drastic impact on the standings
Dan Szymborski
ESPN Insider
While all teams start the season at 0-0, when it comes to their schedules, some teams start with a built-in advantage or disadvantage. Back before the current expansion era, teams in both leagues played schedules that were more balanced than they are today. The AL in particular played a very balanced schedule, with each team playing divisional opponents 13 times and nondivisional opponents 12 times. While bad teams always have slightly tougher schedules than good teams (a 100-loss team doesn't get to play itself, while every other team gets to), schedules were far more consistent across teams than they are today.
Whether it's a good idea for baseball or not, unbalanced schedules are here to stay for the foreseeable future. In the April 4 issue of ESPN The Magazine, we took a look at schedule strength and determined that the Toronto Blue Jays had the most difficult schedule in baseball, with their average opponent having an expected winning percentage of .522, and the St. Louis Cardinals had the easiest, at .484 (these figures take into consideration that the AL is a slightly tougher league).
The Blue Jays (and the Baltimore Orioles, with an ever-so-slightly easier schedule) have a particularly tough route to the playoffs. Not only do the Jays face the toughest slate in baseball, but they also have to win more games against that tough schedule than most teams in other divisions -- the last time an AL East champion won fewer than 95 games was in 2000. When you're in the AL East, even a 90-win season generally means that your only route to the playoffs is the wild card.
Looking at the Blue Jays (ZiPS has them as a 79-win team right now, with Baltimore a couple of wins behind), how would their currently dismal playoff odds look in another division with another team's schedule? Playing ruthless baseball despot, with powers commissioner Bud Selig can only dream of, I went ahead and swapped the division and schedules for the Cardinals and Blue Jays. I also went ahead and changed the schedules for the other teams to reflect the divisional alignment.
<OFFER>
Suddenly, the Blue Jays' chances look a whole lot better. Freed of a division where they are projected to finish in fourth place, 14 games behind the Boston Red Sox, the Jays suddenly become a contender in the NL Central, finishing 86-76 and edging out the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, currently projected to win 85 games. The Cardinals, still very competitive in the NL Central even after the loss of Adam Wainwright, find themselves suddenly fighting for fourth place with the Orioles in the AL East.
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NL CENTRAL STANDINGS WITH ST. LOUIS SWAPPED FOR TORONTO
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>W</TH><TH>L</TH><TH>PCT</TH><TH>GB</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Toronto Blue Jays</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>.531</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cincinnati Reds</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>77</TD><TD>.525</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Milwaukee Brewers</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>77</TD><TD>.525</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chicago Cubs</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>.506</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates</TD><TD>70</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>.432</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Houston Astros</TD><TD>69</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>.426</TD><TD>17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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The Philadelphia Phillies are projected by the ZiPS projection system to be the best team in the NL at 95 wins. At seven wins more than the runner-up in the NL, that's not even particularly close, but how would they fare in the AL East? Putting Philadelphia in the AL East in Toronto's place doesn't hurt them as much as the Cardinals, but it's enough to turn their odds of making the playoffs from better than 50 percent to a 1-in-3 shot.
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AL EAST STANDINGS WITH PHILADELPHIA SWAPPED FOR TORONTO
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>W</TH><TH>L</TH><TH>PCT</TH><TH>GB</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Boston Red Sox</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>70</TD><TD>.568</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Philadelphia Phillies</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>72</TD><TD>.556</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tampa Bay Rays</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>.537</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New York Yankees</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>.531</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baltimore Orioles</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>.463</TD><TD>17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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There are no doubt inequities in baseball's financial structure that currently affect the Blue Jays and Orioles more than most. However, the difficult road these teams have to travel has as much to do with the schedule and baseball's divisional structure as it has to do with dollar signs. Baseball's conservative nature suggests that more radical solutions are out, but restoring more balanced schedules and giving last year's bad teams more games against last year's other bad teams could at least help ensure that every team really does start the year at 0-0.
Swapping Toronto and St. Louis would have a drastic impact on the standings
Dan Szymborski
ESPN Insider
While all teams start the season at 0-0, when it comes to their schedules, some teams start with a built-in advantage or disadvantage. Back before the current expansion era, teams in both leagues played schedules that were more balanced than they are today. The AL in particular played a very balanced schedule, with each team playing divisional opponents 13 times and nondivisional opponents 12 times. While bad teams always have slightly tougher schedules than good teams (a 100-loss team doesn't get to play itself, while every other team gets to), schedules were far more consistent across teams than they are today.
Whether it's a good idea for baseball or not, unbalanced schedules are here to stay for the foreseeable future. In the April 4 issue of ESPN The Magazine, we took a look at schedule strength and determined that the Toronto Blue Jays had the most difficult schedule in baseball, with their average opponent having an expected winning percentage of .522, and the St. Louis Cardinals had the easiest, at .484 (these figures take into consideration that the AL is a slightly tougher league).
The Blue Jays (and the Baltimore Orioles, with an ever-so-slightly easier schedule) have a particularly tough route to the playoffs. Not only do the Jays face the toughest slate in baseball, but they also have to win more games against that tough schedule than most teams in other divisions -- the last time an AL East champion won fewer than 95 games was in 2000. When you're in the AL East, even a 90-win season generally means that your only route to the playoffs is the wild card.
Looking at the Blue Jays (ZiPS has them as a 79-win team right now, with Baltimore a couple of wins behind), how would their currently dismal playoff odds look in another division with another team's schedule? Playing ruthless baseball despot, with powers commissioner Bud Selig can only dream of, I went ahead and swapped the division and schedules for the Cardinals and Blue Jays. I also went ahead and changed the schedules for the other teams to reflect the divisional alignment.
<OFFER>
Suddenly, the Blue Jays' chances look a whole lot better. Freed of a division where they are projected to finish in fourth place, 14 games behind the Boston Red Sox, the Jays suddenly become a contender in the NL Central, finishing 86-76 and edging out the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, currently projected to win 85 games. The Cardinals, still very competitive in the NL Central even after the loss of Adam Wainwright, find themselves suddenly fighting for fourth place with the Orioles in the AL East.
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NL CENTRAL STANDINGS WITH ST. LOUIS SWAPPED FOR TORONTO
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>W</TH><TH>L</TH><TH>PCT</TH><TH>GB</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Toronto Blue Jays</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>.531</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cincinnati Reds</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>77</TD><TD>.525</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Milwaukee Brewers</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>77</TD><TD>.525</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chicago Cubs</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>.506</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates</TD><TD>70</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>.432</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Houston Astros</TD><TD>69</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>.426</TD><TD>17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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The Philadelphia Phillies are projected by the ZiPS projection system to be the best team in the NL at 95 wins. At seven wins more than the runner-up in the NL, that's not even particularly close, but how would they fare in the AL East? Putting Philadelphia in the AL East in Toronto's place doesn't hurt them as much as the Cardinals, but it's enough to turn their odds of making the playoffs from better than 50 percent to a 1-in-3 shot.
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AL EAST STANDINGS WITH PHILADELPHIA SWAPPED FOR TORONTO
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>W</TH><TH>L</TH><TH>PCT</TH><TH>GB</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Boston Red Sox</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>70</TD><TD>.568</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Philadelphia Phillies</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>72</TD><TD>.556</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tampa Bay Rays</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>.537</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New York Yankees</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>.531</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baltimore Orioles</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>.463</TD><TD>17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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There are no doubt inequities in baseball's financial structure that currently affect the Blue Jays and Orioles more than most. However, the difficult road these teams have to travel has as much to do with the schedule and baseball's divisional structure as it has to do with dollar signs. Baseball's conservative nature suggests that more radical solutions are out, but restoring more balanced schedules and giving last year's bad teams more games against last year's other bad teams could at least help ensure that every team really does start the year at 0-0.
