Consequences of new kickoff rules
Changes to kickoff rules will increase touchbacks and players' safety
By Aaron Schatz
Football Outsiders
ESPN Insider
On Tuesday, the NFL owners voted to move the kickoff back to the 35-yard line (where it was until 1994). The owners decided not to vote for some more extreme rule changes that had been proposed, including banning any wedge blocking and moving the ball after a touchback to the 25 rather than the 20. Still, the kickoff rule changes will make a difference on the field in 2011.
Just how many more touchbacks are we talking about? Last year, 16.3 percent of kickoffs from the standard 30-yard line were touchbacks. We can do some math to figure out how many of those kickoffs would have been touchbacks if the new rules had been in effect in 2010.
<OFFER>(All of the numbers below represent only standard kickoffs from the 30-yard line. Onside kicks and kickoffs moved due to a penalty are not included, but squib kicks meant to avoid a long return are included.)
Figuring this out isn't as easy as computing that a kickoff listed as 70 yards in last year's play-by-play would still be 70 yards if it had come from the 35-yard line. In one of the many inconsistencies of NFL play-by-play, not every official scorer in the NFL reports the actual distance of every kickoff. Some official scorers -- in Carolina and Denver, for example -- will list all kickoffs that end in touchbacks as "70 yards," even if the kick flew past the goal line. There were 233 of these touchbacks last season, and we'll assume they would all still be touchbacks with the new rules.
Then there were 960 kickoffs that went between 66 and 73 yards, not counting the mis-labeled touchbacks noted above. From the 35, these would now be kickoffs into the end zone. On average, 72 percent of kickoffs into the end zone get returned, so let's assume the same percentage would be returned under the new rule. That would mean 269 touchbacks out of those 960 kickoffs.
(Would the percentage of returns on end zone kicks really stay the same? It's hard to tell. On one hand, the new rules put the coverage team 5 yards closer to tackling the receiver. On the other hand, the new rules also make it so that coverage players can't build up speed before the kick; they can only line up 5 yards back of the kickoff. That means they won't be getting downfield as quickly.)
Last year, 140 kickoffs were listed as 79 yards, going out the back of the end zone. Another 112 kickoffs went between 74 and 78 yards. From the 35, these would now be automatic touchbacks out the back of the end zone.
Add up all the figures and we have an estimated 754 touchbacks. Based on last year's totals, that would make it so that 31.5 percent of all kickoffs from the standard 30-yard line ended in touchbacks.
Although 31.5 percent would nearly double last year's 16.3 percent, it's certainly a lot different from removing kickoff returns entirely.
Here's a look at which kickers we project would have had the highest increase in touchbacks last season if the kickoff line had been at the 35:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
10 Biggest Increases Under New Rules
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Kicker</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Actual TB</TH><TH>Adjusted TB</TH><TH>Change</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Michael Koenen</TD><TD>ATL</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>+17</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>David Buehler</TD><TD>DAL</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>+13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Rob Bironas</TD><TD>TEN</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>+13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pat McAfee</TD><TD>IND</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>+13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Josh Brown</TD><TD>STL</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>+13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Neil Rackers</TD><TD>HOU</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>+12</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Rhys Lloyd</TD><TD>CAR</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>+12</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mason Crosby</TD><TD>GB</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>+12</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jay Feely</TD><TD>ARI</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>+11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Josh Scobee</TD><TD>JAC</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>+11</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
It should be noted as well that it was wise of the competition committee to leave the touchback at the 20-yard line and not move it out to the 25-yard line. In recent years, there has been a rise in the number of squib kicks and pop-up kicks meant to avoid long returns. As the length of the average kickoff has gone up, the number of shorter kicks has stayed the same. Fewer kickoffs that are just plain bad have been counterbalanced by more kickoffs that are short on purpose.
If the touchback was moved to the 25-yard line, the unintended consequences could have been devastating. Teams likely would have attempted more pop-up kicks to deter great returners, which would have led to more collisions, more fumbles and more injuries -- exactly what the competition committee wanted to avoid.
As it is, the new rules should help to lessen injuries, aid teams with poor kickoff coverage and decrease the impact that elite kickoff returners have on the game.
Changes to kickoff rules will increase touchbacks and players' safety
By Aaron Schatz
Football Outsiders
ESPN Insider
On Tuesday, the NFL owners voted to move the kickoff back to the 35-yard line (where it was until 1994). The owners decided not to vote for some more extreme rule changes that had been proposed, including banning any wedge blocking and moving the ball after a touchback to the 25 rather than the 20. Still, the kickoff rule changes will make a difference on the field in 2011.
Just how many more touchbacks are we talking about? Last year, 16.3 percent of kickoffs from the standard 30-yard line were touchbacks. We can do some math to figure out how many of those kickoffs would have been touchbacks if the new rules had been in effect in 2010.
<OFFER>(All of the numbers below represent only standard kickoffs from the 30-yard line. Onside kicks and kickoffs moved due to a penalty are not included, but squib kicks meant to avoid a long return are included.)
Figuring this out isn't as easy as computing that a kickoff listed as 70 yards in last year's play-by-play would still be 70 yards if it had come from the 35-yard line. In one of the many inconsistencies of NFL play-by-play, not every official scorer in the NFL reports the actual distance of every kickoff. Some official scorers -- in Carolina and Denver, for example -- will list all kickoffs that end in touchbacks as "70 yards," even if the kick flew past the goal line. There were 233 of these touchbacks last season, and we'll assume they would all still be touchbacks with the new rules.
Then there were 960 kickoffs that went between 66 and 73 yards, not counting the mis-labeled touchbacks noted above. From the 35, these would now be kickoffs into the end zone. On average, 72 percent of kickoffs into the end zone get returned, so let's assume the same percentage would be returned under the new rule. That would mean 269 touchbacks out of those 960 kickoffs.
(Would the percentage of returns on end zone kicks really stay the same? It's hard to tell. On one hand, the new rules put the coverage team 5 yards closer to tackling the receiver. On the other hand, the new rules also make it so that coverage players can't build up speed before the kick; they can only line up 5 yards back of the kickoff. That means they won't be getting downfield as quickly.)
Last year, 140 kickoffs were listed as 79 yards, going out the back of the end zone. Another 112 kickoffs went between 74 and 78 yards. From the 35, these would now be automatic touchbacks out the back of the end zone.
Add up all the figures and we have an estimated 754 touchbacks. Based on last year's totals, that would make it so that 31.5 percent of all kickoffs from the standard 30-yard line ended in touchbacks.
Although 31.5 percent would nearly double last year's 16.3 percent, it's certainly a lot different from removing kickoff returns entirely.
Here's a look at which kickers we project would have had the highest increase in touchbacks last season if the kickoff line had been at the 35:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
10 Biggest Increases Under New Rules
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Kicker</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Actual TB</TH><TH>Adjusted TB</TH><TH>Change</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Michael Koenen</TD><TD>ATL</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>+17</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>David Buehler</TD><TD>DAL</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>+13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Rob Bironas</TD><TD>TEN</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>+13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pat McAfee</TD><TD>IND</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>+13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Josh Brown</TD><TD>STL</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>+13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Neil Rackers</TD><TD>HOU</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>+12</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Rhys Lloyd</TD><TD>CAR</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>+12</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mason Crosby</TD><TD>GB</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>+12</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jay Feely</TD><TD>ARI</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>+11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Josh Scobee</TD><TD>JAC</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>+11</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
It should be noted as well that it was wise of the competition committee to leave the touchback at the 20-yard line and not move it out to the 25-yard line. In recent years, there has been a rise in the number of squib kicks and pop-up kicks meant to avoid long returns. As the length of the average kickoff has gone up, the number of shorter kicks has stayed the same. Fewer kickoffs that are just plain bad have been counterbalanced by more kickoffs that are short on purpose.
If the touchback was moved to the 25-yard line, the unintended consequences could have been devastating. Teams likely would have attempted more pop-up kicks to deter great returners, which would have led to more collisions, more fumbles and more injuries -- exactly what the competition committee wanted to avoid.
As it is, the new rules should help to lessen injuries, aid teams with poor kickoff coverage and decrease the impact that elite kickoff returners have on the game.
