Red Sox D will really improve in 2011
Injuries hindered Boston's defense last year, but a healthy lineup will thrive this season
By Ben Jedlovec
Baseball Info Solutions
ESPN Insider
Last summer, the San Diego Padres surprised the baseball world by monopolizing first place in the National League West for most of the season.
Outside of Adrian Gonzalez, the 2010 Padres didn't have a powerful lineup or any starting pitchers who were Cy Young candidates. They were, however, one of the league's most-improved defenses from the previous season. Chase Headley excelled in his return to his natural position at the hot corner, and Tony Gwynn Jr. covered a tremendous amount of ground in the outfield before a late-season broken wrist took him out of the lineup.
According to Baseball Info Solutions' estimates, San Diego's fielders saved 53 runs with their defense last year, third-best in the NL and a 54-run improvement from the previous season's total. The Minnesota Twins were devastated by injuries to key players Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau, but their under-the-radar acquisitions of J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson helped the team actually improve from 85 wins in 2009 to 94 wins and the AL Central title.
Who will be this year's version of the Padres and Twins, two teams that surprised everyone last year thanks to defensive upgrades? Let's look at three contending teams that have boosted their chances with improved defenses.
<OFFER>Boston Red Sox
2010: minus-56 runs saved
2011 projection: 24 runs saved
The story of last offseason was how Boston had bought into new defensive metrics with the signings of Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro, and Adrian Beltre. Unfortunately, a cascade of injuries put a damper on those plans, and the team finished at -56 runs saved, ahead of only the Royals and Pirates. Losing perennial Fielding Bible Award contenders Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis for parts of the season hurt the infield on both sides of the ball. Injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron had third- and fourth-string outfielders playing regularly, and while they did better than expected at the plate, they still struggled to cover Fenway's unique outfield.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Aren't they glovely?
All the hype about the Mariners' defense last year wasn't bogus. But defense can only do so much. Below are the top five defenses from 2010, in terms of runs saved.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>Runs saved</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Seattle Mariners</TD><TD>61</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Los Angeles Angels</TD><TD>61</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tampa Bay Rays</TD><TD>54</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Toronto Blue Jays</TD><TD>54</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cincinnati Reds</TD><TD>53</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->The acquisitions of Carl Crawford (projected 15 runs saved) and Adrian Gonzalez (projected 2 runs saved) will help, but getting the rest of the lineup healthy will be a far bigger boost. Watch Youkilis' transition back to third, as he tries to fill Beltre's shoes. Also keep an eye on how manager Terry Francona tries to leverage Crawford and get the most out of his tremendous range while playing in front of the Green Monster.
Texas Rangers
2010: 0 runs saved
2011 projection: 40 runs saved
Defensive runs saved didn't buy into the Rangers' defense last year, but we expect great things for 2011. The biggest change will be at third base, where Adrian Beltre (projected 16 runs saved) replaces Michael Young (minus-13 runs saved in 2010). That is potentially a three-win improvement on defense alone!
A full season from Nelson Cruz (projected 10 runs saved in right) and Ian Kinsler (projected 6 runs saved at second) will also help. Otherwise, the rest of the team is now full of above-average defenders, with Julio Borbon in center (projected 6 runs saved), Josh Hamilton in left (projected 3 runs saved), and Elvis Andrus at short (projected 5 runs saved).
Chicago White Sox
2010: minus-30 runs saved
2011 projection: minus-8 runs saved
Three positions were problematic for the White Sox last year, and they're bound to get some sort of bounce-back at all three. In right field, Carlos Quentin again battled through injuries and posted a league-worst minus-20 runs saved. While he's never been a good defender, he's not likely to repeat that dismal performance either and projects at "just" minus-13 runs saved this year.
Like Quentin, Paul Konerko posted his worst defensive season last year (minus-17 runs saved) and isn't likely to repeat it (projected minus-7 runs saved). The alternative at first, Adam Dunn, obviously isn't any better. Across the diamond, the White Sox got a collectively terrible performance from several third baseman, most notably Mark Teahen (minus-13 runs saved) and 43-year-old Omar Vizquel (minus-9 runs saved). The White Sox hope Brett Morel can take over the everyday job this year, and if the scouting reports are accurate, he should be an above-average defender. Even if he provides only average defense (projected 0 runs saved), it could mean a three-win improvement for the Sox in what figures to be a competitive AL Central.
We would be remiss to exclude the biggest defensive drop-offs among contenders.
Minnesota Twins
2010: 54 runs saved
2011 projection: 0 runs saved
The Twins are getting Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau back, but they've parted ways with defensive assets J.J. Hardy (4 runs saved, traded to Baltimore) and Orlando Hudson (17 runs saved, signed with San Diego). Super-sub Nick Punto turned in a surprisingly good defensive season last year (7 runs saved at short, 8 runs saved at third), but he also skipped town.
The fate of the Twins' defense rests on shortstop Alexi Casilla (who has rated poorly when he has actually played there, costing his team 15 runs over four seasons) and import Tsuyoshi Nishioka. As a result, expect the Twins' defense to drop off, expect their pitching staff to regress, especially ground-ball-heavy starters such as Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano.
St. Louis Cardinals
2010: 61 runs saved
2011 projection: 15 runs saved
The Cardinals decided they could no longer live with Brendan Ryan's weak bat, so they jettisoned him to Seattle and brought in former Cub Ryan Theriot as an upgrade. Ryan (Brendan, not Theriot) saved an estimated 20 runs in just 830 innings at short in 2009, but he stepped that up to 27 runs saved in 1127 innings last year. That translates to roughly three wins in the standings, and he didn't even play every day.
On top of that, the Cardinals are putting Lance Berkman in right field, a position he has not played regularly since 2004.
The Cardinals still have several Fielding Bible Awards between Yadier Molina and a contract-year Albert Pujols, but they've made a number of defensive downgrades elsewhere. The Cardinals' pitching staff, already strained with the loss of co-ace Adam Wainwright, will suffer even more. Fantasy owners: Avoid extreme ground-ball-pitcher Jaime Garcia, who could really implode without vacuum-cleaner Brendan Ryan behind him.
San Francisco Giants
2010: 54 runs saved
2011 projection: 14 runs saved
The Giants rode an improbable wave of success to last year's World Series championship, somehow playing outstanding outfield defense despite acquiring Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen midseason. The strong outfield certainly boosted the league's most extreme fly-ball pitching staff out of a midseason slump. To his credit, manager Bruce Bochy leveraged his outfielders perfectly all the way through the World Series, often bringing in defensive replacements for Burrell as early as the sixth and seventh innings.
However, the Giants got above-average defensive seasons from Aubrey Huff (6 runs saved at first base, 2 runs saved in left, and 2 runs saved in right), Pablo Sandoval (2 runs saved), Pat Burrell (6 runs saved), Mark DeRosa (2 runs saved before an early-season injury) and even Jose Guillen (1 run saved). It's highly unlikely that any or all of them will duplicate last year's performance. In particular Huff, Sandoval and Burrell have historically rated among the worst at their positions and should not be counted on to repeat 2010, at least on the defensive side.
While full seasons of Andres Torres and Cody Ross should make for a reasonable defensive outfield, adding Miguel Tejada to play shortstop will drag down a defense already destined for regression.
Injuries hindered Boston's defense last year, but a healthy lineup will thrive this season
By Ben Jedlovec
Baseball Info Solutions
ESPN Insider
Last summer, the San Diego Padres surprised the baseball world by monopolizing first place in the National League West for most of the season.
Outside of Adrian Gonzalez, the 2010 Padres didn't have a powerful lineup or any starting pitchers who were Cy Young candidates. They were, however, one of the league's most-improved defenses from the previous season. Chase Headley excelled in his return to his natural position at the hot corner, and Tony Gwynn Jr. covered a tremendous amount of ground in the outfield before a late-season broken wrist took him out of the lineup.
According to Baseball Info Solutions' estimates, San Diego's fielders saved 53 runs with their defense last year, third-best in the NL and a 54-run improvement from the previous season's total. The Minnesota Twins were devastated by injuries to key players Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau, but their under-the-radar acquisitions of J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson helped the team actually improve from 85 wins in 2009 to 94 wins and the AL Central title.
Who will be this year's version of the Padres and Twins, two teams that surprised everyone last year thanks to defensive upgrades? Let's look at three contending teams that have boosted their chances with improved defenses.
<OFFER>Boston Red Sox
2010: minus-56 runs saved
2011 projection: 24 runs saved
The story of last offseason was how Boston had bought into new defensive metrics with the signings of Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro, and Adrian Beltre. Unfortunately, a cascade of injuries put a damper on those plans, and the team finished at -56 runs saved, ahead of only the Royals and Pirates. Losing perennial Fielding Bible Award contenders Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis for parts of the season hurt the infield on both sides of the ball. Injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron had third- and fourth-string outfielders playing regularly, and while they did better than expected at the plate, they still struggled to cover Fenway's unique outfield.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Aren't they glovely?
All the hype about the Mariners' defense last year wasn't bogus. But defense can only do so much. Below are the top five defenses from 2010, in terms of runs saved.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>Runs saved</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Seattle Mariners</TD><TD>61</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Los Angeles Angels</TD><TD>61</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tampa Bay Rays</TD><TD>54</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Toronto Blue Jays</TD><TD>54</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cincinnati Reds</TD><TD>53</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->The acquisitions of Carl Crawford (projected 15 runs saved) and Adrian Gonzalez (projected 2 runs saved) will help, but getting the rest of the lineup healthy will be a far bigger boost. Watch Youkilis' transition back to third, as he tries to fill Beltre's shoes. Also keep an eye on how manager Terry Francona tries to leverage Crawford and get the most out of his tremendous range while playing in front of the Green Monster.
Texas Rangers
2010: 0 runs saved
2011 projection: 40 runs saved
Defensive runs saved didn't buy into the Rangers' defense last year, but we expect great things for 2011. The biggest change will be at third base, where Adrian Beltre (projected 16 runs saved) replaces Michael Young (minus-13 runs saved in 2010). That is potentially a three-win improvement on defense alone!
A full season from Nelson Cruz (projected 10 runs saved in right) and Ian Kinsler (projected 6 runs saved at second) will also help. Otherwise, the rest of the team is now full of above-average defenders, with Julio Borbon in center (projected 6 runs saved), Josh Hamilton in left (projected 3 runs saved), and Elvis Andrus at short (projected 5 runs saved).
Chicago White Sox
2010: minus-30 runs saved
2011 projection: minus-8 runs saved
Three positions were problematic for the White Sox last year, and they're bound to get some sort of bounce-back at all three. In right field, Carlos Quentin again battled through injuries and posted a league-worst minus-20 runs saved. While he's never been a good defender, he's not likely to repeat that dismal performance either and projects at "just" minus-13 runs saved this year.
Like Quentin, Paul Konerko posted his worst defensive season last year (minus-17 runs saved) and isn't likely to repeat it (projected minus-7 runs saved). The alternative at first, Adam Dunn, obviously isn't any better. Across the diamond, the White Sox got a collectively terrible performance from several third baseman, most notably Mark Teahen (minus-13 runs saved) and 43-year-old Omar Vizquel (minus-9 runs saved). The White Sox hope Brett Morel can take over the everyday job this year, and if the scouting reports are accurate, he should be an above-average defender. Even if he provides only average defense (projected 0 runs saved), it could mean a three-win improvement for the Sox in what figures to be a competitive AL Central.
We would be remiss to exclude the biggest defensive drop-offs among contenders.
Minnesota Twins
2010: 54 runs saved
2011 projection: 0 runs saved
The Twins are getting Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau back, but they've parted ways with defensive assets J.J. Hardy (4 runs saved, traded to Baltimore) and Orlando Hudson (17 runs saved, signed with San Diego). Super-sub Nick Punto turned in a surprisingly good defensive season last year (7 runs saved at short, 8 runs saved at third), but he also skipped town.
The fate of the Twins' defense rests on shortstop Alexi Casilla (who has rated poorly when he has actually played there, costing his team 15 runs over four seasons) and import Tsuyoshi Nishioka. As a result, expect the Twins' defense to drop off, expect their pitching staff to regress, especially ground-ball-heavy starters such as Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano.
St. Louis Cardinals
2010: 61 runs saved
2011 projection: 15 runs saved
The Cardinals decided they could no longer live with Brendan Ryan's weak bat, so they jettisoned him to Seattle and brought in former Cub Ryan Theriot as an upgrade. Ryan (Brendan, not Theriot) saved an estimated 20 runs in just 830 innings at short in 2009, but he stepped that up to 27 runs saved in 1127 innings last year. That translates to roughly three wins in the standings, and he didn't even play every day.
On top of that, the Cardinals are putting Lance Berkman in right field, a position he has not played regularly since 2004.
The Cardinals still have several Fielding Bible Awards between Yadier Molina and a contract-year Albert Pujols, but they've made a number of defensive downgrades elsewhere. The Cardinals' pitching staff, already strained with the loss of co-ace Adam Wainwright, will suffer even more. Fantasy owners: Avoid extreme ground-ball-pitcher Jaime Garcia, who could really implode without vacuum-cleaner Brendan Ryan behind him.
San Francisco Giants
2010: 54 runs saved
2011 projection: 14 runs saved
The Giants rode an improbable wave of success to last year's World Series championship, somehow playing outstanding outfield defense despite acquiring Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen midseason. The strong outfield certainly boosted the league's most extreme fly-ball pitching staff out of a midseason slump. To his credit, manager Bruce Bochy leveraged his outfielders perfectly all the way through the World Series, often bringing in defensive replacements for Burrell as early as the sixth and seventh innings.
However, the Giants got above-average defensive seasons from Aubrey Huff (6 runs saved at first base, 2 runs saved in left, and 2 runs saved in right), Pablo Sandoval (2 runs saved), Pat Burrell (6 runs saved), Mark DeRosa (2 runs saved before an early-season injury) and even Jose Guillen (1 run saved). It's highly unlikely that any or all of them will duplicate last year's performance. In particular Huff, Sandoval and Burrell have historically rated among the worst at their positions and should not be counted on to repeat 2010, at least on the defensive side.
While full seasons of Andres Torres and Cody Ross should make for a reasonable defensive outfield, adding Miguel Tejada to play shortstop will drag down a defense already destined for regression.
