Ranking the spring's impact injuries
Cardinals, Orioles and Phillies are among the teams that will be most affected
Dan Szymborski
Baseball Think Factory
ESPN Insider
After a winter of tinkering with lineups and bolstering rotations, many teams face the prospect of scrambling for Plan B before the season even starts, thanks to unwanted preseason injuries. Some of these injuries are nothing more than standard bumps in the road that teams expect to encounter over the course of the season, but a handful of March surprises can be expected to have a real impact on teams' bottom lines. So that leaves us with the following question: Which injuries so far have had the greatest impact? Here's a ranking of those that will have the most impact.
<OFFER>1. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Wainwright's injury is easily the most significant one on this list, as he'll be on the shelf for at least a year thanks to Tommy John surgery on the same ligament that caused him to miss most of the 2004 season. The good news is that a recent study shows that 83 percent of athletes who undergo the surgery are able to return at a similar or better level of play.
Kyle McClellan has emerged as Wainwright's replacement and has had an excellent spring (4-0, 0.78 ERA), but pitching well in spring training isn't the same as doing it during the season, and McClellan has very little professional experience as a starter. The three- or four-win loss from Wainwright's being replaced by an ordinary pitcher looks to be devastating in a very tight NL Central, and enough to cut the Cards' postseason chances in half.
2. Justin Duchscherer, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles can't say they didn't know what they were getting into when they signed Duchscherer, as pitchers with career ERAs of 3.01 as starters are generally available for $700,000 only when there are serious questions surrounding them. The official line is that Duchscherer will return in April, but given his injury history and the fact that he has required surgery on his injured hip before, the Orioles would be wise to prepare for a worst-case scenario.
Despite their acquisitions of Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy, the Orioles still need a lot of things to go right for them this season if they want to return to relevance -- and having a healthy Duchscherer available to stabilize a weak rotation is one of them.
3. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
What was first described as minor knee soreness that would cause Utley to be day-to-day has gotten worse every time the Phillies talk to the media, and now the team's best player is guaranteed to start the season on the 15-day DL -- with no timetable for his return. The Phillies had an impressive collection of replacement-level types to fill in at second base (Josh Barfield, Pete Orr, Delwyn Young) but decided to bring in yet another one, Luis Castillo, to replace Utley temporarily.
Castillo was one of the least favorite players among New York Mets fans for very good reasons. Despite remaining one of the best contact hitters in baseball (he made contact with 94 percent of the pitches he swung at last year), Castillo is now at the point of his career where he'd be overpowered by a Jamie Moyer fastball. You can knock a win off the Phillies' total every month Utley misses, and while the team is still projected to be the best in the NL East, the margin of error is a good deal smaller if Utley doesn't come back quickly.
4. Texas Rangers' pitchers
None of Texas' injuries is crippling individually, but with Tommy Hunter expected to miss at least the first month of the season, Brandon Webb suffering a setback and starting the season on the DL, and C.J. Wilson dealing with recent hamstring soreness, the Rangers' rotation might be looking thin in April even if manager Ron Washington does a 180 and puts Neftali Feliz in the rotation.
The team already should expect to lose a win by not having Hunter or Webb pitch in April, with another win per month if either misses more time than that. The Rangers are unlikely to have a nine-game cushion in the AL West this season, and with the team projected by ZiPS to win the West by only two games in 2011, it could be a great opportunity for the Oakland A's. The A's have a couple of injuries of their own, but they were never counting on Rich Harden's being healthy, and a deep bullpen limits the impact of the loss of Andrew Bailey, who will begin the year on the DL.
5. Jason Castro, Houston Astros
From a win standpoint, this isn't a terrible loss for the team, as it affects only that ever-so-exciting battle to finish in fifth place in the NL Central. However, losing Castro is still a big blow to the Astros' future, as the whole purpose of rebuilding seasons is to see how your young players can perform in the majors. The Astros were really looking forward to seeing if Castro, one of the team's top prospects and a 2008 first-round pick, could grow as a player and bounce back from a very disappointing debut last season (.205 AVG/.286 OBP/.287 SLG). Castro's surgery to replace a torn ACL and meniscus stalls his development and, in the worst-case scenario, puts his future behind the plate at risk.
6. Kendrys Morales, Los Angeles Angels
The Angels expected Kendrys Morales (not a typo, he's going back to his birth name of Kendrys) to be fully recovered from last year's broken ankle by the time the 2011 season started. Instead, Morales has soreness in his foot that has prevented him from running full speed, and he will begin the year on the disabled list.
The ZiPS projection system expected Morales to recover to the tune of an .806 OPS this season, and while Mark Trumbo impressed with his power in the Pacific Coast League and in spring training, there are still questions about his approach at the plate. ZiPS has Trumbo hitting .248/.295/.412 with 21 home runs and 148 strikeouts in a full season in the majors in 2011, and that won't be enough to get the Angels back above .500.
Cardinals, Orioles and Phillies are among the teams that will be most affected
Dan Szymborski
Baseball Think Factory
ESPN Insider
After a winter of tinkering with lineups and bolstering rotations, many teams face the prospect of scrambling for Plan B before the season even starts, thanks to unwanted preseason injuries. Some of these injuries are nothing more than standard bumps in the road that teams expect to encounter over the course of the season, but a handful of March surprises can be expected to have a real impact on teams' bottom lines. So that leaves us with the following question: Which injuries so far have had the greatest impact? Here's a ranking of those that will have the most impact.
<OFFER>1. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Wainwright's injury is easily the most significant one on this list, as he'll be on the shelf for at least a year thanks to Tommy John surgery on the same ligament that caused him to miss most of the 2004 season. The good news is that a recent study shows that 83 percent of athletes who undergo the surgery are able to return at a similar or better level of play.
Kyle McClellan has emerged as Wainwright's replacement and has had an excellent spring (4-0, 0.78 ERA), but pitching well in spring training isn't the same as doing it during the season, and McClellan has very little professional experience as a starter. The three- or four-win loss from Wainwright's being replaced by an ordinary pitcher looks to be devastating in a very tight NL Central, and enough to cut the Cards' postseason chances in half.
2. Justin Duchscherer, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles can't say they didn't know what they were getting into when they signed Duchscherer, as pitchers with career ERAs of 3.01 as starters are generally available for $700,000 only when there are serious questions surrounding them. The official line is that Duchscherer will return in April, but given his injury history and the fact that he has required surgery on his injured hip before, the Orioles would be wise to prepare for a worst-case scenario.
Despite their acquisitions of Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy, the Orioles still need a lot of things to go right for them this season if they want to return to relevance -- and having a healthy Duchscherer available to stabilize a weak rotation is one of them.
3. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
What was first described as minor knee soreness that would cause Utley to be day-to-day has gotten worse every time the Phillies talk to the media, and now the team's best player is guaranteed to start the season on the 15-day DL -- with no timetable for his return. The Phillies had an impressive collection of replacement-level types to fill in at second base (Josh Barfield, Pete Orr, Delwyn Young) but decided to bring in yet another one, Luis Castillo, to replace Utley temporarily.
Castillo was one of the least favorite players among New York Mets fans for very good reasons. Despite remaining one of the best contact hitters in baseball (he made contact with 94 percent of the pitches he swung at last year), Castillo is now at the point of his career where he'd be overpowered by a Jamie Moyer fastball. You can knock a win off the Phillies' total every month Utley misses, and while the team is still projected to be the best in the NL East, the margin of error is a good deal smaller if Utley doesn't come back quickly.
4. Texas Rangers' pitchers
None of Texas' injuries is crippling individually, but with Tommy Hunter expected to miss at least the first month of the season, Brandon Webb suffering a setback and starting the season on the DL, and C.J. Wilson dealing with recent hamstring soreness, the Rangers' rotation might be looking thin in April even if manager Ron Washington does a 180 and puts Neftali Feliz in the rotation.
The team already should expect to lose a win by not having Hunter or Webb pitch in April, with another win per month if either misses more time than that. The Rangers are unlikely to have a nine-game cushion in the AL West this season, and with the team projected by ZiPS to win the West by only two games in 2011, it could be a great opportunity for the Oakland A's. The A's have a couple of injuries of their own, but they were never counting on Rich Harden's being healthy, and a deep bullpen limits the impact of the loss of Andrew Bailey, who will begin the year on the DL.
5. Jason Castro, Houston Astros
From a win standpoint, this isn't a terrible loss for the team, as it affects only that ever-so-exciting battle to finish in fifth place in the NL Central. However, losing Castro is still a big blow to the Astros' future, as the whole purpose of rebuilding seasons is to see how your young players can perform in the majors. The Astros were really looking forward to seeing if Castro, one of the team's top prospects and a 2008 first-round pick, could grow as a player and bounce back from a very disappointing debut last season (.205 AVG/.286 OBP/.287 SLG). Castro's surgery to replace a torn ACL and meniscus stalls his development and, in the worst-case scenario, puts his future behind the plate at risk.
6. Kendrys Morales, Los Angeles Angels
The Angels expected Kendrys Morales (not a typo, he's going back to his birth name of Kendrys) to be fully recovered from last year's broken ankle by the time the 2011 season started. Instead, Morales has soreness in his foot that has prevented him from running full speed, and he will begin the year on the disabled list.
The ZiPS projection system expected Morales to recover to the tune of an .806 OPS this season, and while Mark Trumbo impressed with his power in the Pacific Coast League and in spring training, there are still questions about his approach at the plate. ZiPS has Trumbo hitting .248/.295/.412 with 21 home runs and 148 strikeouts in a full season in the majors in 2011, and that won't be enough to get the Angels back above .500.
