On The Hop's 2011 MLB Picks

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Before I post my picks I want to thank all the great cappers here who share their time, knowledge and expertise. I always learn A LOT from reading. I've decided it's time to contribute.

Also, I want to make it clear that I am not a system player. I am playing based on my knowledge of the game and certain angles that jump out at me. Good luck to everyone this year. I will always do my best to give at least some rationale as to why I am making each pick. Your feedback is always welcomed.

Always listed pitchers unless I note otherwise.

3/31/11 YTD 0-0 (+0.00 units)

Washington Nationals +132: Braves are going to be good this year but Lowe does not impress me. Livan always starts the year strong then fades. Nats at home on opening day get it done.

Kansas City Royals +131: This is the year Hochevar puts it all together. Young, talented hungry Royals want to get off on the right foot and keep the home town fans involved...at least until May.
 

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Not that it matters after yesterday's hunk of crap but, nothing today at least in the early games. Want to take a closer look at TB/Baltimore and Sea/Oak later.

4/1/11 YTD 0-2 (-2 units)
 

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4/2/11 YTD 0-2 (-2 units)

Of course I took a day off yesterday and the games I was leaning towards came in. Oh well. Here we go again:

Atlanta Braves -132: When I can get the better team with a relatively low line with a dominant pitcher against a team that will struggle to score runs this year, I'll take it.

St. Louis Cardinals -128: The loss of Holliday hurts but LaRussa is good enough to get them to rally, especially coming off the loss on Thursday. Neither P is dominating so I have to go with the bats that are significantly better.

Arizona Diamondbacks +146: Hudson was downright nasty last year after the trade to the DBacks. He won't be as good this year but at this number I have to take my chances, especially against an up and down P like De La Rosa.

Minnesota Twins -115: There won't be many opportunities this year to take Liriano with a low number. He's pitching for a contract and he's one of my favorites for AL Cy Young. Two or three years from now we may be saying the same thing about Drabek but not yet.

Boston Red Sox +101: I have a feeling Lewis reverts back to his previous form while Lackey feels a little more comfortable this season in the Boston spotlight. There will not be many chances to take Boston + money this season. This team of veterans will put yesterday behind them and I look for them to come away with the win tonight.
 

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Any idea how hard it is to start the year 0-7? I'm tempted to quit but I have to be great fade material right now and I wouldn't want to deprive you of that!
 

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4/3/2011 YTD 0-7 (-7.84 units)

Clearly I am lost. Time to step back and re-evaluate. Nothing jumping out at me today so no reason to force anything.

GL to everyone.
 

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4/9/2011 YTD 0-7 (-7.84u)

Hopefully the week off will help.

Phillies +103, 1 unit: Beachy was impressive in his debut but that was against Milwaukee not against this powerful Phillies team. Oswalt traditionally dominates the Braves bats.

Pirates -109, 1 unit: Morton has been good since his recall last September. Rockies are throwing a Double AA callup who was unimpressive at that level.

Diamondbacks -106, 1 unit: Hudson wasn't bad in his first game at Coors Field. I look for him to regain his form from last season and hold the Reds down enough for the D'Backs to get it done at home.
 

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4/10/11 YTD 1-9 (-8.96u)

I'm not sure if I'm happy that I finally won one or pissed because it was another losing day! The turnaround starts now....unless it doesn't.

Phillies +109, 1 unit: Back to the well again but when I can get the Phillies and their hot bats at + money I have to take it. Hamels had a rough first outing but the guy is an excellent pitcher. Lowe has been good but not against a lineup that looks like this Philadelphia squad.

Twins -128, 1 unit: Baker got rocked by the Yankees in his opener...or did he? After the first two innings he settled down and pitched very well keeping the Twins alive for their comeback. I think he carries that confidence into today against an A's team that doesn't have much pop. McCarthy was a former top prospect who is just working his way back and after yesterday's shutout I look for the Twins to jump on him early and often.

ML Parlay (Mets, Tigers, Angels), 1 unit to win 3.24: Tried this strategy a few times last year playing relatively large favorites together in games I really like as I normally don't like playing teams -150 or more. Worked out last year, let's see what happens. Usually it is when I see a clear pitching advantage for the home team. In this case I see it in all 3 matchups.

Good luck to everyone today. Sorry for the continued losing but at least it is great fade material if nothing else.
 

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RANGERS/TIGERS o9 -115: Penny has not impressed and I don't think Wilson repeats last year's success. You won't hold down the Texas offense two days in a row and Detroit should scratch out enough runs to send this over.

ROYALS +136: I like the way Francis is throwing the ball, getting his shoulder fixed and getting out of Colorado really seem to have helped. Gordon starting to hit. Twins bats still silent. Worth the risk at this price.

Mariners EVEN: Pineda looks like the real deal. Jays have to be a bit demoralized after last night's debacle.

Parlay: RED SOX/YANKEES 1:1.44 Large pitching advantages for the home team. Could not find a 3rd team to add in but if I was going to add one it would be the Giants.
 

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4/14/2011 3-12-2 (-11.16 units)

KANSAS CITY ROYALS -128: Chen has traditionally done well against the Mariners. Fister has not traditionally done well against the Royals. Seattle is not the same team on the road.

Parlay:YANKEES/ATHLETICS 1:1.52

Let's hope things start to turn around soon.
 

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4/16/2011 4-14-1 (-10.88 units)...corrected for poor math and record keeping

BALTIMORE ORIOLES -101: Guthrie has been throwing the ball extremely well this year, and really has looked good since the All Star break last year. Tomlin can't be trusted and Orioles appear to me to have the better bats.

DETROIT TIGERS -113: When I can get Verlander with such a low number against a weak hitting A's team, I have to grab it. 2-3 runs should win this game for the Tigers.

Parlay, 1/2.4: WHITE SOX, RED SOX, PHILLIES

Some people (me) are just too stupid to quit.
 

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4/17/2011, 4-17-1, -14 units

GIANTS -107
ASTROS -125
ROYALS -120
PARLAY: PHILLIES, BRAVES, RED SOX, RAYS, 1:4.52
 

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Not sure why I continue to bother. Keep telling myself it is a long season. I've never had a losing season in baseball. I guess it is all coming around now.

04/17/11 (4-21-1, -18.52u)

Pittsburgh +160
Milwaukee +111
Tampa Bay -116
 

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Finally a good day.
4/19/11 (7-21-1, -14.8u)

Tampa Bay -108
Florida RL +110
Parlay: Phillies, Reds, Marlins 1:2.48
 

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Two in a row. The world may stop rotating soon.

4/20/11(9-22-1, -13.5u)

Cleveland -110
San Francisco +108
Pittsburgh +140
 
Last edited:

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4/22/11(10-24-1 -14.5u)

Washington +106
Milwaukee RL +105
Philadelphia -127
Cleveland +105
Seattle -129
 

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Actually had 2 units on Milwaukee last night, forgot to note it. My apologies.

4/23/11 (13-24-1 -10.38u)

Washington +105
 

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These look familiar.

4/26/11 (16-27-1 -10.22u)

Philadelphia -124
San Diego +101
 

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