2010 Record 233-264-4 (+54.44 units)
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Milwaukee +106 over CINCINNATI
The most significant additions for the Brewers this off-season were pitchers, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. The Brewers also hope to have added some pop at shortstop with the addition of Yuniesky Betancourt from the Royals. Betancourt slugged 16 homers and knocked in 78 runs for KC last year and he now joins an offense with a lot more sting, including Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks (he led the majors in home runs (29), runs (112) and RBI (83) from the leadoff spot) Casey McGehee, Corey Hart (on 15 day DL) and Ryan Braun to name a few. Yovani Gallardo gets the opening day assignment and deservedly so. Last April, the right-hander made five starts and gave his squad 29 solid frames, striking out 29 and inducing a 53% ground-ball rate. 2010 was a breakout year for Gallardo with a career-best 14 victories, 200 strikeouts for the second straight season and a first All-Star selection. Gallardo is an elite talent that has not received the recognition he deserves. He can fly under the radar again for his first few starts, as all the attention is on Marcum and Greinke. The Reds have a potent offense too but in no way do they have an edge on the mound today. Edinson Volquez returned from last year's Tommy John surgery on July 17 and remained an all or nothing pitcher. His velocity returned but he had trouble finding the plate. Volquez’s inaccuracy let to an ugly WHIP of 1.77 and an alarmingly high ERA of 4.74. Lest we forget, Volquez served a 50 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs while rehabbing in the minors earlier last season and one had to wonder how he would perform when he was "clean"? We’re just sayin’. Not anxious to be laying anything here with an inferior and erratic chucker on the mound. Play: Milwaukee +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +169 over ST. LOUIS
The equation here is a rather simple one and it goes like this: When offered +169 on Tim Stauffer, take it and ask no questions. Stauffer is an emerging talent and while his 6-5 record from 2010 may not stand out, his ERA of 1.82 does. Since Stauffer spent most of his time in relief, he's undervalued in the starting role but his elite ground-ball profile of 68% is off the charts and it was no fluke, as he maintained that profile for a long duration covering 82 innings. The Padres lost their best hitter, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to free agency but added two new pieces in shortstop Jason Bartlett and second baseman Orlando Hudson. To help replace Gonzalez’s production, San Diego signed Brad Hawpe to a one-year deal in hopes of the youngster finding the bat he had n 2009 with the Rockies when he hit .285 with 42 doubles, 23 home runs, 86 RBI and 82 runs scored, en route to his first All-Star selection. Chris Carpenter takes the mound for St. Louis and he needs no introduction. Despite Carpenter’s immense talent, there’s no getting around his injury history and his advancing age (35). This spring Carpenter was removed from a game with a hamstring pull. In four spring starts covering 17 innings, Carpenter went 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA while walking 10 and striking out 10. Certainly he can shine again but this isn’t about wagering against Carpenter. This is all about taking back a ridiculously high price on a quality pitcher that the oddsmakers haven’t quite caught wind of yet. Play: San Diego +169 (Risking 2 units).
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Milwaukee +106 over CINCINNATI
The most significant additions for the Brewers this off-season were pitchers, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. The Brewers also hope to have added some pop at shortstop with the addition of Yuniesky Betancourt from the Royals. Betancourt slugged 16 homers and knocked in 78 runs for KC last year and he now joins an offense with a lot more sting, including Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks (he led the majors in home runs (29), runs (112) and RBI (83) from the leadoff spot) Casey McGehee, Corey Hart (on 15 day DL) and Ryan Braun to name a few. Yovani Gallardo gets the opening day assignment and deservedly so. Last April, the right-hander made five starts and gave his squad 29 solid frames, striking out 29 and inducing a 53% ground-ball rate. 2010 was a breakout year for Gallardo with a career-best 14 victories, 200 strikeouts for the second straight season and a first All-Star selection. Gallardo is an elite talent that has not received the recognition he deserves. He can fly under the radar again for his first few starts, as all the attention is on Marcum and Greinke. The Reds have a potent offense too but in no way do they have an edge on the mound today. Edinson Volquez returned from last year's Tommy John surgery on July 17 and remained an all or nothing pitcher. His velocity returned but he had trouble finding the plate. Volquez’s inaccuracy let to an ugly WHIP of 1.77 and an alarmingly high ERA of 4.74. Lest we forget, Volquez served a 50 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs while rehabbing in the minors earlier last season and one had to wonder how he would perform when he was "clean"? We’re just sayin’. Not anxious to be laying anything here with an inferior and erratic chucker on the mound. Play: Milwaukee +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +169 over ST. LOUIS
The equation here is a rather simple one and it goes like this: When offered +169 on Tim Stauffer, take it and ask no questions. Stauffer is an emerging talent and while his 6-5 record from 2010 may not stand out, his ERA of 1.82 does. Since Stauffer spent most of his time in relief, he's undervalued in the starting role but his elite ground-ball profile of 68% is off the charts and it was no fluke, as he maintained that profile for a long duration covering 82 innings. The Padres lost their best hitter, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to free agency but added two new pieces in shortstop Jason Bartlett and second baseman Orlando Hudson. To help replace Gonzalez’s production, San Diego signed Brad Hawpe to a one-year deal in hopes of the youngster finding the bat he had n 2009 with the Rockies when he hit .285 with 42 doubles, 23 home runs, 86 RBI and 82 runs scored, en route to his first All-Star selection. Chris Carpenter takes the mound for St. Louis and he needs no introduction. Despite Carpenter’s immense talent, there’s no getting around his injury history and his advancing age (35). This spring Carpenter was removed from a game with a hamstring pull. In four spring starts covering 17 innings, Carpenter went 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA while walking 10 and striking out 10. Certainly he can shine again but this isn’t about wagering against Carpenter. This is all about taking back a ridiculously high price on a quality pitcher that the oddsmakers haven’t quite caught wind of yet. Play: San Diego +169 (Risking 2 units).
