Twins -112
I'll take a shot against Drabek here with Liriano hurling, no telling what this price would be at home so sometimes you have to pick your spots on the road to seek some playable numbers. Romero is pretty much a nightmare matchup for the Twins lineup. Facing a young righty today they may just take him to school...rare to get a true ace vs. an unproven commodity with arguably the better team at this short a price.
I'll take a shot against Drabek here with Liriano hurling, no telling what this price would be at home so sometimes you have to pick your spots on the road to seek some playable numbers. Romero is pretty much a nightmare matchup for the Twins lineup. Facing a young righty today they may just take him to school...rare to get a true ace vs. an unproven commodity with arguably the better team at this short a price.
D'Backs Even
Don't think the Reds deserve at all to be favored here on the road with a lefty. Wood is also not that good (yet). Kennedy on the other hand is underwhelming in terms of stuff but tends to get less credit than he deserves. If his change piece is on that will be the key in getting by Bruce and Votto.
Don't think the Reds deserve at all to be favored here on the road with a lefty. Wood is also not that good (yet). Kennedy on the other hand is underwhelming in terms of stuff but tends to get less credit than he deserves. If his change piece is on that will be the key in getting by Bruce and Votto.
Yanks -115
Mariners -125
Two pretty cheap chalks. Yanks should be -140 in my opinion. Sox record I imagine has people chasing, not to mention that people would expect them to win the series here I suppose. Still, taking the game at face value I can't help but like CC at this price.
Bedard wasn't great in his last but I thought he pitched better than the lines indicate. Pretty cheap price at home vs. this awful Indians team with a decent hurler on the hill.
Mariners -125
Two pretty cheap chalks. Yanks should be -140 in my opinion. Sox record I imagine has people chasing, not to mention that people would expect them to win the series here I suppose. Still, taking the game at face value I can't help but like CC at this price.
Bedard wasn't great in his last but I thought he pitched better than the lines indicate. Pretty cheap price at home vs. this awful Indians team with a decent hurler on the hill.
Seattle -120
Arizona +110
Angels +105
King Felix vs. Phil Coke, eh? Hudson has good stuff and could get through this current order. Upton swinging great, giving Drew a pass for performance vs. Lee and Young finally upstarted. Should score some off Roy tonight I think. McCarthy should be decent all year but last start vs. Seattle looks better than it was. Shouldn't be a road chalk with this horrific A's team in my opinion.
Arizona +110
Angels +105
King Felix vs. Phil Coke, eh? Hudson has good stuff and could get through this current order. Upton swinging great, giving Drew a pass for performance vs. Lee and Young finally upstarted. Should score some off Roy tonight I think. McCarthy should be decent all year but last start vs. Seattle looks better than it was. Shouldn't be a road chalk with this horrific A's team in my opinion.
Rays -105 (Hellickson)
Twins are all banged up. Hellickson > Blackburn. Rays should be -130 here in my opinion.
D'Backs -107
Enright is highly capable and I'll continue to back the D'Backs at home until they get more respect. Chris Young has been en fuego at the top and while he and Upton crush lefties, I actually prefer seeing an underwhelming righty on the hill because when Johnson and Drew get on the D'Backs flat out score.
Twins are all banged up. Hellickson > Blackburn. Rays should be -130 here in my opinion.
D'Backs -107
Enright is highly capable and I'll continue to back the D'Backs at home until they get more respect. Chris Young has been en fuego at the top and while he and Upton crush lefties, I actually prefer seeing an underwhelming righty on the hill because when Johnson and Drew get on the D'Backs flat out score.
KC -105
Laying even a touch of juice with Chen might just be crazy, but at home I like taking the lefty against this Twins lineup. They're so banged up and now head to KC right off the double-header. Baker's numbers are sparkling, but he is Baker, and with a lefty heavy lineup today on the road I see him getting him pretty good. Just hope Chen doesn't implode.
Laying even a touch of juice with Chen might just be crazy, but at home I like taking the lefty against this Twins lineup. They're so banged up and now head to KC right off the double-header. Baker's numbers are sparkling, but he is Baker, and with a lefty heavy lineup today on the road I see him getting him pretty good. Just hope Chen doesn't implode.
D'Backs -130
Back for more with Arizona. Kennedy coming off the start of his career and I think his changeup is the medicine for Soriano's torrid start. Chris Young is still struggling with the occasional pop-outs but you have to like that he's starting to draw walks and hitting for power. Said it before that Young and Upton kill lefties, but I'd rather back the D'Backs vs. righties since it helps out Kelly and Drew so much, if they're hitting, Arizona is probably scoring and I think they'll do just that to Garza today.
Back for more with Arizona. Kennedy coming off the start of his career and I think his changeup is the medicine for Soriano's torrid start. Chris Young is still struggling with the occasional pop-outs but you have to like that he's starting to draw walks and hitting for power. Said it before that Young and Upton kill lefties, but I'd rather back the D'Backs vs. righties since it helps out Kelly and Drew so much, if they're hitting, Arizona is probably scoring and I think they'll do just that to Garza today.
Boston -105
Washington +105
Don't see today as the day Felix turns it around. If Wakefield holds Seattle down I think they avoid the sweep.
Cain could mow down Washington I suppose, but they're hitting the ball OK and Zimmerman has a good chance to get through the SF lineup unscathed. Have to take a chance at a slight plus in a spot like this I feel.
Washington +105
Don't see today as the day Felix turns it around. If Wakefield holds Seattle down I think they avoid the sweep.
Cain could mow down Washington I suppose, but they're hitting the ball OK and Zimmerman has a good chance to get through the SF lineup unscathed. Have to take a chance at a slight plus in a spot like this I feel.
Gallardo +125
Buccholz -102
Holland +105
Colon +112
Never a huge Jurjjens guy and thinking Gallardo simply can't be this bad. Norris was pure filth today so not going to hold the shutout against the Brewers too much. Weaver was sick and is now favored traveling to Boston? Can't understand that one. Angels lineup is the most overrated in baseball, love this one. Hard not to take plus money fading the A's ever and McCarthy is coming off a predicted rough outing. Holland just needs to avoid the bad inning. Colon is pitching well and the Tigers are a mess. When Verlander gets dialed in I wouldn't get in his way, but now is the time to get him and the Yanks are definitely one of the best teams to try with.
Buccholz -102
Holland +105
Colon +112
Never a huge Jurjjens guy and thinking Gallardo simply can't be this bad. Norris was pure filth today so not going to hold the shutout against the Brewers too much. Weaver was sick and is now favored traveling to Boston? Can't understand that one. Angels lineup is the most overrated in baseball, love this one. Hard not to take plus money fading the A's ever and McCarthy is coming off a predicted rough outing. Holland just needs to avoid the bad inning. Colon is pitching well and the Tigers are a mess. When Verlander gets dialed in I wouldn't get in his way, but now is the time to get him and the Yanks are definitely one of the best teams to try with.
Thank you kind sir.
Seattle +115
Going to stick my neck out with Bedard again here a bit. The total at 7 seems to be telling me he'll pitch well. Cust has started to hit a bit and if Ichiro/Figgins can get on tonight I think Ogando will be giving up some runs. The right-handed bats of Texas certainly are worrisome, but they're not exactly swinging the hottest of sticks. Another plus money home team that I just feel holds value. Probably look real smart or real dumb for this one, with no in between.
Seattle +115
Going to stick my neck out with Bedard again here a bit. The total at 7 seems to be telling me he'll pitch well. Cust has started to hit a bit and if Ichiro/Figgins can get on tonight I think Ogando will be giving up some runs. The right-handed bats of Texas certainly are worrisome, but they're not exactly swinging the hottest of sticks. Another plus money home team that I just feel holds value. Probably look real smart or real dumb for this one, with no in between.
Milwaukee +115
Baltimore -105
Beachy can be wild at times. His stuff can overwhelm an inferior lineup and he was great against the Brewers in his season debut. But if he's not getting his curve over I think he'll have a hard time powering through the lineup. Not seeing the four game sweep for the Braves here...and Marcum is pretty good.
Chen should be just what the doctor ordered for this underachieving Orioles lineup. Like to see Reynolds come out and get 3 hits yesterday despite the demotion in the lineup. Maybe putting too much confidence in Tillman here but I guess we'll see.
Baltimore -105
Beachy can be wild at times. His stuff can overwhelm an inferior lineup and he was great against the Brewers in his season debut. But if he's not getting his curve over I think he'll have a hard time powering through the lineup. Not seeing the four game sweep for the Braves here...and Marcum is pretty good.
Chen should be just what the doctor ordered for this underachieving Orioles lineup. Like to see Reynolds come out and get 3 hits yesterday despite the demotion in the lineup. Maybe putting too much confidence in Tillman here but I guess we'll see.
Volquez +110
More to come. Love the Reds lineup against Garza who has pitched dazzling this season but I think will struggle to get past the big lefties (Bruce and Votto) today. Volquez usually struggles early but I think the Cubs lineup has been over its head...Where is the hitter other than Pena that Volquez should struggle against in here?
More to come. Love the Reds lineup against Garza who has pitched dazzling this season but I think will struggle to get past the big lefties (Bruce and Votto) today. Volquez usually struggles early but I think the Cubs lineup has been over its head...Where is the hitter other than Pena that Volquez should struggle against in here?
Zimmerman +150
This line is absolutely crazy to me. Nolasco has pitched well and the Marlins are hot with the Nats struggling to score...but in terms of a pitching matchup this is pretty even, and Nolasco always has the potential of blowing up. Washington has enough bats in the lineup that I believe they can do enough here. With Hanley still not having turned the corner the Marlins lineup simply doesn't deserve this type of respect with anyone other than Johnson on the bump.
Still debating Shields and Wolf.
This line is absolutely crazy to me. Nolasco has pitched well and the Marlins are hot with the Nats struggling to score...but in terms of a pitching matchup this is pretty even, and Nolasco always has the potential of blowing up. Washington has enough bats in the lineup that I believe they can do enough here. With Hanley still not having turned the corner the Marlins lineup simply doesn't deserve this type of respect with anyone other than Johnson on the bump.
Still debating Shields and Wolf.
Milwaukee/St. Louis over 7.5
Favorite play on the card. Pair of lefties going against a number of good righty bats. Milwaukee was ice cold at Atlanta but you have to think they are going to snap out of it and Jaime Garcia, I still contend, is not nearly the pitcher his numbers make him seem. Way too many dangerous bats to get around in the top of the lineup....meanwhile, Wolf is a decent pitcher but the ML says enough about what Vegas expects out of him today and the more I looked he's really taken advantage of a charmin soft schedule this year with 3 of his last 4 starts against the Pirates and Stros. Can't see either pitcher really working through these lineups with much ease today and at under 8 I'll take my chances that we get one team to hit a 3-run HR and get to 5. Will take 5-3, but looking for a borderline slugfest here.
Still think Shields at plus money is a bit ridiculous, but having thrown 26 innings in his last three starts and with his historical road struggles I suppose I'll lay off.
Favorite play on the card. Pair of lefties going against a number of good righty bats. Milwaukee was ice cold at Atlanta but you have to think they are going to snap out of it and Jaime Garcia, I still contend, is not nearly the pitcher his numbers make him seem. Way too many dangerous bats to get around in the top of the lineup....meanwhile, Wolf is a decent pitcher but the ML says enough about what Vegas expects out of him today and the more I looked he's really taken advantage of a charmin soft schedule this year with 3 of his last 4 starts against the Pirates and Stros. Can't see either pitcher really working through these lineups with much ease today and at under 8 I'll take my chances that we get one team to hit a 3-run HR and get to 5. Will take 5-3, but looking for a borderline slugfest here.
Still think Shields at plus money is a bit ridiculous, but having thrown 26 innings in his last three starts and with his historical road struggles I suppose I'll lay off.
Hellickson -105
Hasn't put together a full game yet...last game he got off to a great start and then after they jumped to a big lead I think he pitched to contact. Guthrie on the other hand has been above the rim so far. Two teams maybe headed in opposite directions.
Gallardo +115
Warning, this if all-out chase mode. I really hate to chase and I've more or less driven it from my game, but when I can't help myself I can't help myself. I hate all the hype surrounding Lohse who is still a very marginal pitcher. Gallardo on the other hand has been rocky of late but has probably been one of the more unlucky pitchers in baseball. Brewers lineup simply can't be this bad. Hate to try to predict ice cold bats will wake up but at the price with the better pitcher on the bump, going to do just that.
Hudson -103
Moseley is not very good. He gets by based on his ballpark and he will have that going in his favor today, but guys like Chris Young and Justin Upton don't really care how far back the fences are...when they get a hold of one it's going to clear just the same. Drew's good early fortune has balanced out of late but he's still not swinging a bad stick. They all rate real strong against guys like Moseley and when you can predict those three will hit it's time to back the D'Backs as I've done successfully all year.
White +180
How on earth can you back the Indians against Weaver right? Well, Weaver's start was pushed back last out and he ended up throwing pretty well against Boston anyway. Now I feel you get a groundball inducing rookie against an overrated lineup pitching for a team everyone is looking to fade against the guy who has been the best pitcher in baseball pitching at his home park. Cleveland is fade material probably over the long haul but there are enough sticks, especially from the left side, to score a few off Weaver. On top of that LAA pen isn't that good and even Walden is just a wild flamethrower. Love the value here.
Need these teams to be road warriors today.
If it rains today at Chruchill I'm probably going with Soldat.
If not probably looking between Stay Thirsty, Mucho Macho Man (though probably underneath) and Shackleford...though I won't completely ignore Archx3, Dialed In or Nehro in the pk-3's. Good luck on Derby day.
Hasn't put together a full game yet...last game he got off to a great start and then after they jumped to a big lead I think he pitched to contact. Guthrie on the other hand has been above the rim so far. Two teams maybe headed in opposite directions.
Gallardo +115
Warning, this if all-out chase mode. I really hate to chase and I've more or less driven it from my game, but when I can't help myself I can't help myself. I hate all the hype surrounding Lohse who is still a very marginal pitcher. Gallardo on the other hand has been rocky of late but has probably been one of the more unlucky pitchers in baseball. Brewers lineup simply can't be this bad. Hate to try to predict ice cold bats will wake up but at the price with the better pitcher on the bump, going to do just that.
Hudson -103
Moseley is not very good. He gets by based on his ballpark and he will have that going in his favor today, but guys like Chris Young and Justin Upton don't really care how far back the fences are...when they get a hold of one it's going to clear just the same. Drew's good early fortune has balanced out of late but he's still not swinging a bad stick. They all rate real strong against guys like Moseley and when you can predict those three will hit it's time to back the D'Backs as I've done successfully all year.
White +180
How on earth can you back the Indians against Weaver right? Well, Weaver's start was pushed back last out and he ended up throwing pretty well against Boston anyway. Now I feel you get a groundball inducing rookie against an overrated lineup pitching for a team everyone is looking to fade against the guy who has been the best pitcher in baseball pitching at his home park. Cleveland is fade material probably over the long haul but there are enough sticks, especially from the left side, to score a few off Weaver. On top of that LAA pen isn't that good and even Walden is just a wild flamethrower. Love the value here.
Need these teams to be road warriors today.
If it rains today at Chruchill I'm probably going with Soldat.
If not probably looking between Stay Thirsty, Mucho Macho Man (though probably underneath) and Shackleford...though I won't completely ignore Archx3, Dialed In or Nehro in the pk-3's. Good luck on Derby day.
