3 Saturday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Pittsburgh +173 over CHICAGO
Over the past three seasons Carlos Zambrano has fared worse at Wrigley Field than on the road and his numbers have been on a steady decline every year. Zambrano is just not good anymore and there’s plenty of proof. A look at Zambrano's xERA (expected ERA) the last four years and you will see a very mediocre pitcher and a disturbing downward trend. It went from 4.41 in 2007 to 4.55 in ’08 to 4.57 in ’09 and last year his xERA was 4.89. Zambrano used to be very adept at keeping runners off the bases, used to being the operative words. You want to lay big juice on a guy with a 1.50 WHIP over the last couple of years? Carlos Zambrano is mediocre and he isn't likely to get better. It's hard to believe that Carlos Zambrano is just 29 years old, but we need look no further than the IP column to know that he is an old 29. Remember: this is the same guy getting paid like a #1 starter who got relegated to middle relief duties last season. His spring stats don’t instill optimism either, as he walked 11, struck out 12 and surrendered 24 hits in 22.2 frames. Paul Maholm is a shoo-in for lots of IP and probably another inconsistent season. Maholm’s saving grace is that he does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground. He’s occasionally dominant and occasionally disastrous with a whole lot of “meh” in-between. In fact, that pretty much sums up Maholm’s career – he’s consistent, but unspectacular. His strong groundball tendency could lead to success in any game and certainly he and the Bucs are very worthy of a bet against Zambrano and the Cubbies. Cubs picked up where they left off last season with a horrible showing in the opener and there’s nothing that suggests today will be different. Big overlay. Play: Pittsburgh +173 (Risking 2 units).

Boston +107 over TEXAS The bottom line here is that you always have to consider the Red Sox when they’re taking back a tag. We might also be backing a very undervalued John Lackey. Lackey ranked as one of the AL's most obvious disappointments in 2010, as he finished with a 4.00+ ERA for the first time since 2004. Lackey switched teams entering last season after spending his entire career prior to 2010 with one organization. Whether the change in venue to a home ballpark that is less advantageous to pitchers, a move to an unfamiliar setting, or whether there may have been a first-half minor injury that was concealed, there was something clearly different during last season's first half. His return to form in the second half is reassuring as we look toward 2011. Lackey’s skills returned in the second half and he’s coming off a very decent spring in which his ERA was 3.43 in 21 IP. He also walked just three batters in the spring. Lackey is somewhat of a forgotten man but could be a big sleeper to start the year. While Lackey was a big disappointment in 2010, the performance of Colby Lewis was arguably one of the year's biggest surprises, especially given his spotty MLB past. Another concern regarding Lewis is his groundball/fly-ball profile, which was 37%/46% and this park is not kind to fly-ball pitchers. In any case, the Red Sox lineup is so lethal that they’re always worth a bet at a price, as surely they can win this game. Play: Boston +107 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND +128 over Chicago
Carlos Carrasco quietly showed signs last year that he might be ready to emerge. He was called up late in the year and posted some great skills including a 57% groundball rate and a 97 BPV (**for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). He already showed a high dominance and command profile in parts of three seasons in Triple-A. It’s also worth noting that Carrasco has faced current South Side hitters 32 times and all they have is five hits against him for a BA of .132. By contrast, Indian hitters have 34 hits in 115 AB’s against Edwin Jackson for a BA of .296. Jackson is also coming off a rough spring in which he allowed 29 hits and 12 ER in 17.1 frames for an ERA of 6.23. The White Sox pen got whacked yesterday, nearly blowing a 14-0 lead and that’s not a good way to start a season. Jackson is streaky, he always has been and he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on because of some very nice umbers upon his return to the AL last season. However, this is about investing in Carlos Carrasco, who undoubtedly is going to win more games for the Tribe this season than any of their other starters. Play: Cleveland +128 (Risking 2 units).

**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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good to see you working.....and thanks for including the "day" in your topic title
 

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