let's work on a system here. i have an idea

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would be nice if we could all work together for this sytem i have in mind. it's based on alternate lines on the runline.

im thinking about doing a system where you take the runline(-1.5) on an underdog team after they have lost the first 2 games of a 3 game series. so im hoping they will not get swept basically. so you would have to take the alternate runline(since runlines are only posted for favorites on the regular betting menu).

for example, the tigers have lost the first 2 games of the series vs the yanks. in the finale of the series, they are +140. so if we took the tigers runline, it would be over +200. this system could hit under 50% and still be very profitable. is it worth a shot? this could also work for not only dogs, but anyone on the runline that lost the first 2 games of the series.

if anyone can help out and try to find a stat that says how dogs do in the final game of a 3 games series if they lost the first 2.
 

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let's test it out. i'm taking 2 dogs today that are trying to avoid sweep, and i took them on the adjusted run line.

april 3, 2011
indians -1.5(+205)
brewers -1.5(+170)
 

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Detroit was a winner, why didn't you list them?

i actually want to focus on where the moneyline moves in the direction of the dog. the line moved in yanks favor today. so i am going to track this:

bet dogs -1.5 runline, where the line is moving in favor of the dog(so from say, +180, to +165), and the dog team is trying to avoid a sweep.
 

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april 3, 2011
indians -1.5(+205)=win
brewers -1.5(+170)=loss

ytd 1-1
+1.05 units

we'll use $100 per unit for tracking purposes
 

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ok guys, 2 plays today in mlb. so far so good, we are 2-2, +2 units

astros -1.5(+200)
cardinals -1.5(+170)
 

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astros -1.5(+200)=win
cardinals up 4-1 right now. lookin good. automatically at least a +1 unit day.
 

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astros -1.5(+200)=win
cardinals -1.5(+170)=win

2-0 today
ytd 4-2
+5.7 units

im liking this system so far
 

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